A Case for Luis Castillo

It would have been nice to land one of those star free agent pitchers, but it seems we have all come around to David Stearns’ point of view of not giving out five plus year contracts at a minimum of $150 million, to players in their thirties. The Mets certainly did not dumpster dive in adding pitching, but to many their acquisitions filled the staff mostly with bottom of the rotation pitchers save for Sean Manaea, who earned his three year deal and would make a nice #2 or #3. But unless Kodai Senga returns to 2023 form, there really is no ace to the staff.

Stearns certainly knows a lot about putting a winner on the field, but even with a reported 36 pitchers in spring training camp, they still seem a bit short of what is needed to step forward, win the division and snag a world series title.

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Enter 32-year-old right hander Luis Castillo of the Seattle Mariners (M’s). Signed through 2027, for a little under $23 million a year, he is coming off a season where several of his key metrics (WAR, ERA, innings pitches, Ks, and WHIP) took small step backwards. While the Mariners have been listening to offers for Castillo, they are not actively looking to move their ace. To further complicate matters, Castillo has a full no trade clause. So what makes him available to the Mets or any other team?

First of all, the M’s are held down by payroll constraints and are rumored by Internet bloggers to have only about $20 million available to improve their team over the projected $149 million already committed. Their main problem is a sputtering offense that ranked 21^st in runs scored and 25^th in slugging percentage per Baseball-Reference.com. Their right fielders OPS did not exceed .652, their second basemen only slightly better, and the combined WAR was in the negative. Their third base options were not much better with their primary position players equally unimpressive, and their DH performance was subpar. They lost the division by just 3.5 games in 2024, just missing the playoffs, and it seems more realistic to try and beat out the Astros and Rangers for the division then to try and snag a wild card spot against several improved AL teams. So this team desperately needs offense.

The other answer is that they can afford to give up Castillo because according to MLB.com, who describes the M’s as having the best rotation in baseball, he might just be their fifth best pitcher.

With great jealousy here are the 2024 stats of the M’s five starting pitchers. They all throw from the right side, and range in age from 25-28 except for Castillo.

Luis Castillo; 11-12, 3.64 ERA, 175 inn, 175 Ks, 46 BB, 1.8 WAR, $22.75 M

Logan Gilbert; 9-12, 3.23 ERA, 208 inn, 220 Ks, 37 BB, 2.8 WAR, $7.6 M

George Kirby; 14-11, 3.53 ERA, 191 inn, 179 Ks, 23 BB, 1.9 WAR, $4.3 M

Bryce Miller; 12-8, 2.94 ERA, 180 inn, 171 Ks, 45 BB, 3.4 WAR, $800K

Bryan Woo; 9-3, 2.89 ERA, 121 innings, 101 Ks, 13 BB, 2.4 WAR, $800K

With the exception of the LA Dodgers, it would seem that every other team would welcome one of these pitchers to their staff and that while any of the four might seem like better trade targets, they are all young, relatively cheap and are really the M’s future. It is these other four pitchers that make Castillo expendable. It seems the biggest motivation would be to give the M’s some salary relief while helping their offense and giving Castillo the motivation to waive his no trade clause to get a ring.

Before proposing who the Mets would send out west, let’s look at what the M’s have in their pipeline. According to MLB.com, they have seven of the top 100 prospects and within the next season or two, two players selected out of high school might be ready to become infield mainstays.

MLB #20 prospect Colt Emerson, age 20, is a SS/3B prospect set to play in A ball, with a 2026 expected arrival date. They are very excited about MLB #49 prospect Cole Young, also age 20, who is a SS/2B prospect that is projected to arrive sometime this season. He is at AA and in the last month of the season hit .359 with a .974 OPS. With no one ready to step up, they reluctantly resigned free agent third baseman Jorge Polanco to a one year $7.75 million contract, despite his .213 batting average and .651 OPS.

So, let’s make a deal right now before two weeks of spring training goes by and several teams realize their starting staff will come up short.

Jeff McNeil would be a great addition for the M’s Despite his decline the last three years, he still had a positive WAR, more than 20 doubles, played in most of his team’s games, save for last year’s late hand injury, and has great versatility to play multiple positions. He is another veteran players with playoff experience and the need for a change of venue from Citi Field. He slots in at 2B keeping the position warm for Cole Young but could also help in the outfield. The Mets could sweeten the offer by paying $5 million of his $15.7 million contract for 2025 with the M’s picking up the full load for 2026.

Brett Baty is still only 25 years old and definitely needs a fresh start. His hard work made him a much improved fielder, but his hitting took a step back. To his credit, when he was sent back to Syracuse (more like marooned there) he responded with 16 HR, 45 RBI, a batting average of .252 and an OPS of .854 in 62 games. Baty slots in as the M’s third baseman or at least sharing third base with the switch hitting Polanco and at a cost of $800K is a steal.

The Mariners have all-star closer Andres Munoz, age 26, who collected 22 saves over 59 innings as well as Trent Thorton age 31, who collected 10 saves over 72 innings but after that their pen is thin and has been cited on M’s blogs as another team weakness. So to McNeil and Baty, the Mets throw in Jose Butto, who pitched in 30 games, seven as a starter, finished the year with a 7-3 record, 2.55 ERA, 2.2 WAR and only makes $800K.

The deal:

Mets get a #1 starter for the next three years at a net first year cost of $10.4 million that also saves them some on the luxury tax. The net cost becomes $7 million in 2026 with no money due McNeil.

M’s get three players who are immediate upgrades to their offense and bull pen get roughly an additional $10 million to spend improving their team.

And now with Frankie Montas out until at least May, this win-win trade is even more vital

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