A conversation about top prospect lists and the Mets’ minor league system

One of the mainstays of offseason articles is to create rankings and lists of top players in the minors.  My annual top 50 piece will be published by the end of the week, likely on Friday.  David Groveman is working on his, which will be posted before the start of the minor league season.  And of course, all of the other sites big and small do this, too.  With prospects on everyone’s mind, this is the perfect time for an email exchange with David.

Brian: Many years ago, we were both hoodwinked by a guy playing in the DSL.  For you it was power-hitting outfielder Vicente Lupo and for me it was LHP Jose Medina.  Since then, we’ve both been cautious with any numbers put up before reaching this country.  That being said, Monday was a big day with the official signings of IFA.  Is there anyone you’re particularly excited about from this group?  And given your experience with Lupo, how do these players factor into your rankings?

David: There were signs with Lupo that I chose to ignore and I’m older and perhaps wiser now because of them. More than anything, we should have acknowledged that Lupo had come from near total obscurity to have his fantastic DSL showings. The Mets had zero players ranked in the international Top 30 back in 2010 when Lupo became a Met and there was little reason to pin dreams on. In this pool the Mets nabbed three players in the Top 50 and several more who are honorable mentions. Met fans should be excited about all three of the top-rated names and I’ll give my reasoning why. Yovanny Rodriguez scouts out with offensive numbers similar to Kevin Parada but with defensive skills of an above average catcher. Francisco Alvarez and Parada are great but neither of them held out hope of being glove first. Jensi Rivas and Edward Lantigua are exciting for fairly boring reasons. They both rate fairly well with the bat and with the glove and seem to be in their natural positions. The other name that draws note is Vladi Guerrero but he comes without being scouted in the Top 50 and gets his buzz from being related to a baseball great.

Were there warning signs for you with Medina (with regards to DSL value inflation) and is there a player from this pool of signees that has your particular attention?

Brian: I wish I could say there were warning signs with Medina but it was simply a case of a fool rushing in…

I don’t pretend to have any insight into these IFA signings and truly am not excited about one over the other at this point.  My hope is that anyone with a signing bonus of $500,000 or greater is a pretty good prospect.  My plan is to watch them in the DSL and then start really getting excited if/when they put up good numbers in this country.

With that thought in mind, let’s talk about the two IFAs the Mets acquired from the Marlins for David Robertson last year.  At the time of the trade, most viewed Marco Vargas as the better prospect.  But Ronald Hernandez hit better, while playing the more difficult position.  They both played the majority of the year in this country in the FCL, before both getting a late promotion to Lo-A.  Which one do you see as the better prospect?

David: There isn’t enough data to say one or the other is better but right now I’m ranking Vargas significantly higher based on the scouting and the very low success rate for catchers in the minors. To be frank, both players hit well enough to jump higher than they did. I’m not low on either of them but I’m wary. Prior to 2023 Hernandez would not have ranked that highly so I look at his 2023 performance with equal parts hope and skepticism. Vargas, on the other hand, came into the season after a great DSL campaign in 2022. That’s why he’s sitting in my Top 20 and Hernandez isn’t.

Let’s use that to segue into rankings.  I recently sent you my preliminary rankings and I know you’re working on a Top 50 list. In 2023 I weighted things a bit heavier on player floor and in 2024 I’ve shifted to, what I hope, is more balanced between floor and ceiling. Which element do you think your forthcoming ratings favor and why did you lean that way?

Brian: Before answering that question, it’s important to note for the readers that in lieu of doing a ranked list of prospects, my ranking is done in tiers.  And as a rule of thumb, a player in Tier 2 is a better prospect than one in Tier 4 but there are exceptions.  Earlier, I indicated how hard it is to rank these IFAs.  For the most part, these guys are in Tier 2 for me.  But they’re also lottery tickets to a large degree.  And there are likely players in Tier 3 and Tier 4 who are better than lottery tickets.

And that’s a way to say that I value ceiling well above floor.  No doubt there’s some older prospect, like Matt Rudick or Carlos Cortes, who’s going to play in Triple-A or the majors.  That’s a pretty decent floor and likely many of these IFAs won’t come close to that level.  But as a fan of MLB much more so than MiLB, it makes almost no difference to me if a guy flames out in Lo-A or Triple-A.

Beyond that, who cares if some prospect ends up getting 159 PA in the majors with a 44 OPS+?  Yeah, he’ll always be able to call himself an MLB player.  And he should be proud of that distinction.  But as a guy who wants to see the minors produce MLB regulars, my preference is for a guy with a 10% chance of making the majors, a 5% chance of being a regular and a 2% chance of being a star, over a guy with a 75% chance of making the majors and no chance at all to be a regular, much less a star.

I’m interested in the depth the Mets are creating in the catching department.  There’s Alvarez in the majors and Parada on most top-10 lists.  And there’s this year’s top IFA guy in Rodriguez, last year’s top IFA guy in Daiverson Gutierrez and Hernandez, who had a .916 OPS in the FCL with the Marlins, before posting a .995 OPS with the Mets.  Do you think the Mets have a recent emphasis on acquiring catchers with high upside or do you think it’s more of a coincidence that this has happened?

David: I would lean to say it’s mostly coincidence in that the best player the Mets have been able to acquire happens to be at catcher but what I do think is interesting is that the Mets seem to have a catcher of note at every single level. Alvarez in the majors, Parada in AAA/AA, Hernandez in A+/A, Gutirrez in Rookie and now Rodriquez in the DSL. The catching depth chart has got to be among the healthiest and deepest in baseball. The concerning thing to me is that the Mets have the opposite situation with regards to pitching.

When you rank your players in tiers do you have any Met starters as Tier 1 pitchers? As much as I really like Blade Tidwell, Christian Scott and Tyler Stuart, none of them look like they have a future as an “Ace” in the majors. I do not like the way the Mets have drafted in recent years and am desperate to see the team simply go all in on pitching for their first five picks or make a big splash internationally for a fireballer.

Now I have compared my preliminary Top 50 to that published by Metsmerized (done before international signings) and 15 players in their Top 50 do not appear in mine. When you publish yours, I wonder how yours will compare to my own and theirs. Within these rankings, most of those I didn’t include are towards the bottom of the list but one name stands out to me from their list. Their site ranks Boston Baro 15^th overall after being the Mets 8^th round selection and playing a total of seven games for the Mets FCL affiliate. Why do we see so much disparity between rankings? Where do you rank Baro and do you think it says something about the quality of the Met system that one ranking’s #15 overall doesn’t rate in another’s Top 50?

Brian: The only pitcher in my top tier is Tidwell.

My opinion is that it’s a good thing when we see different rankings, so long as that’s what the individual sites really think and not just something to be edgy.  Baro is on my list but at this point it seems crazy to rank him as a top 20 prospect.  That same list you referenced has Scott ranked fourth in the Mets’ system, which is the highest ranking I’ve seen to date.  There’s a lot of hype surrounding Scott and my hope is he reaches those lofty expectations.  But count me as a bear here.

Ultimately, we all bring our biases and preferences to these lists.  In the moment, there’s no right answer and it’s a rare list that looks great in hindsight.  And that uncertainty is a big turnoff for some.  But – in our quest to be better, more informed fans – these lists allow us a chance to see what others value, as well as pointing out where our biases sit.

That would have been a solid concluding paragraph but I do have one final question for David.  Do you think we’ll see any major differences in regards to the minors with David Stearns running the show?  Two things I’ll be looking at is to see if the Mets are more aggressive with their in-season promotions and if they change their draft process from best player available to targeting specific groups, like starters or outfielders.

David: God I hope so (with regards to promotions and level setting). The Mets were painfully timid with their assignments and promotions in 2023 and you and I both repeatedly vented our frustration with it. Currently I’ve set up my spreadsheet with more aggressive assignments than the old regime may have allowed and have based this on statements made by Stearns regarding Gilbert, Acuna and Williams. The early indications are good.On the draft front, I cannot claim to have an extensive knowledge of the Milwaukee system but I did not see anything too exceptional in recent years to give much insight into how he will helm the Mets. On a basic level, he should run the Mets differently as the Mets and Brewers work in different markets but it’s impossible to say how that will relate to draft strategy. I look at the ranks of Met pitching and I’m frustrated by the lack of Top Tier talent. You rank Tidwell as Top Tier and, while I agree he’s the best starting pitcher in the farm, to me he’s a second tier player. I’d like Stearns to go after higher ceiling prospects and prioritize pitching but only time will tell what he will do. Thanks for your time and all your answers and I look forward to your prospect rankings.