BABIP rates for the league and the Mets in 2025

From 1993 to 2019 the yearly BABIP numbers for the MLB universe were remarkably consistent. In that 27-year span, every season saw a BABIP between .293 and .303 for the league. And only five times was it a number .296 or lower. But things changed in the Covid year of 2020, when the league BABIP fell from .298 to .292 in the 60-game season.

In the five complete years of the 2020s, the league BABIP has been between .290 and .292 four times, the only exception coming in 2023. That season saw a rise in BABIP from .290 to .297, in the first year that extreme shifts were banned. But the boost was short-lived, as the league BABIP fell to .291 last season. And it’s even worse so far here in 2025, as we have a .285 BABIP after 27,450 PA.

We should expect that number to rise some, as Mar/Apr is one of the worst months for hitting. Last year, the league’s BABIP was .289 thru the end of April. It’s not a giant difference between early 2024 and this season to date. But for those hoping or expecting the league to return to the era where a .300 BABIP was considered normal, it seems unlikely to happen in 2025.

Knowing where things stand in the league, let’s check in on the Mets. They have a team BABIP of .270, which ranks 20^th among the 30 MLB clubs. Here’s how the individual players stack up:

.083 – Jose Siri
.200 – Brandon Nimmo
.200 – Mark Vientos
.219 – Starling Marte
.250 – Tyrone Taylor
.250 – Juan Soto
.263 – Hayden Senger
.290 – Jesse Winker
.294 – Brett Baty
.302 – Luis Torrens
.321 – Francisco Lindor
.352 – Pete Alonso
.366 – Luisangel Acuna
.429 – Jose Azocar

It seems so weird to see Nimmo, Marte and Soto among the laggards in BABIP, as throughout their careers, they’ve consistently posted higher-than-normal BABIPs. While they may not reach their career averages here in 2025, the expectation should be for their marks to rise in this category as the year progresses.

Now let’s look at the three players with significant playing time – sorry, Azocar – with the highest BABIPs to date:

Lindor has been all over the map with his BABIPs in the majors. He has a lifetime rate of .292 but has posted a mark as low as .248 – his first year with the Mets – and as high as .348, in 438 PA in his rookie season. Lindor had a .295 BABIP in 2024, albeit one that was dragged down by his miserable start. In his final 480 PA last year, Lindor had a .343 BABIP.

He's certainly capable of running a high BABIP over 400-plus PA. But only twice in eight seasons with at least 650 PA has Lindor run a .300 BABIP. One was the .301 mark he had in 2022 and the other was a .324 back in 2016. In this era where a .291 BABIP is normal, how likely is Lindor to keep his current .321 mark over the entire season? Four projection models on FanGraphs have rest of season numbers and all four have Lindor with a .291 or worse BABIP the rest of the way. My opinion is that given what he did the close of 2024 and combine that with what he’s done here in 2025, that Lindor has a half-decent shot, maybe 1-in-3, of maintaining a .321 BABIP the rest of the way.

Alonso has been a consistent under-performer in the category. Not once in his previous six years in the majors has Alonso posted a league-average BABIP. In 2023, he had a dismal .205 mark. Yet, somehow, everything is different here in 2025. Alonso is much-more selective at the plate, taking pitches that he would hopelessly flail at every other year of his career.

All of his numbers in 2025 are great and his “x” stats are even better. It’s easy to look good when you’re having the finest stretch of your career. The question is if Alonso can keep this new-found patience over 162 games. It’s inevitable that he’ll struggle. But will it be a single span of games where he doesn’t hit, or will there be multiple stretches like in 2024? Also, will he rebound to superstar numbers once the poor stretch is over or will he merely be a good hitter after the slump?

My opinion is that this will be a very good year for Alonso. No, he’s not going to end up with anything close to a .352 BABIP. Yet the good news is that he doesn’t have to excel in the category in order to be a force at the plate. Alonso’s best-ever BABIP was the .280 of his rookie season and he posted a 4.7 fWAR. It’s easy to see him challenging that 2019 BABIP, even if it doesn’t come with 53 HR. And if Alonso posts a .280 BABIP, he could have a 4.0 fWAR and be worth this year’s $30 million salary.

Among the 129 hitters who qualified for the batting title last year, there were six that had a BABIP of .350 or greater. That’s fewer than five percent of our pool. And it’s not like last year was an outlier. In 2023, only five out of 134 qualified hitters had a BABIP of .350 or greater. In 2022, it was eight out of 130. In these three seasons, only one player made the cut twice – Freddie Freeman, who did it in 2022 and 2023, before falling to a .306 mark a season ago.

It’s a tough way to make a living, counting on a .350-plus BABIP. Anything can happen once. Shoot, perennial stiff Mallex Smith had a .366 BABIP in 2018. It didn’t mean he was good – it meant that the stars aligned for him in a single season. Freeman is a future Hall of Famer, counting on anyone beneath that level to consistently run ultra-high BABIPs in a meaningful number of PA is simply foolish.

Which brings us to Acuna.

Last year, in 587 PA in Triple-A, Acuna posted a .299 BABIP. And it’s easier to run high BABIPs in the minors than it is in the majors. Shoot, Alonso had BABIPs of .317 and .357 in the minors. Meanwhile, Acuna has a .366 BABIP in 59 PA in the majors this year. It’s too high to last. It’s certainly possible that Acuna, with his speed, will be a player to post above-average BABIPs. But 71 points above average is not a sustainable number for 99.5% of the MLB population.

And even with this outstanding BABIP, Acuna has a 111 OPS+. And that’s with an infield roller going for a double the other day.

To his credit, Acuna has increased his walk rate, which is definitely a good sign. It’s just that his power is nothing special (.094 ISO) and what happens when the hits stop falling in? Or do you expect him to keep getting well-placed bouncing balls, like his hit yesterday in the ninth inning?

Without a doubt, Acuna’s performance to date has been a positive for the Mets. Up to this point, he’s deserved a spot on the roster, which is more than at least a couple of his teammates can say. When Jeff McNeil returns from the IL, Acuna will not be sent to the minors. It’s a legitimate accomplishment, one achieved while playing for the team with the best record in baseball. Bully for him.

Still, we need to differentiate between good results and sustainable production. And there’s been next to nothing about Acuna’s start to make us believe he can continue this output over an extended amount of playing time. It brings to mind 2010 Jeff Francoeur, who in his first 59 PA had a 1.019 OPS and a .342 BABIP. Some thought he was a star. Yet by the time he was traded at the end of August, Francoeur had a .662 OPS and a .259 BABIP in 447 PA.

Just remember – all that glitters isn’t gold.