Checking in on the early January 40-man roster in David Stearns' second year
Last year in early January, we compared the 40-man rosters of Billy Eppler’s squad in 2023 to David Stearns’ squad in 2024, looking to see the relative strengths and set the stage for how it might be under the new PoBO. Eppler’s team had more star power and a full 40-man, while Stearns’ outfit had 37 names yet somehow greater depth. Let’s do the same thing now, comparing the first and second Stearns’ teams in early January, with the 2024 squad on the left and the 2025 version on the right. The chart is listed alphabetical by position group, with color coding to match. A plain line indicates different positions on that line for the two years.
We see that Stearns has added one fewer player to the roster this year, compared to a season ago. But that’s misleading, as several of these players were removed from the 40-man before Spring Training started, much less Opening Day, in 2024. It was unknown how Stearns would fare in this regard. But it’s fair to say that he was fairly aggressive in jettisoning players he acquired from the 40-man, when he felt an upgrade was available. He didn’t just cut ties with the players he inherited.
Another thing to consider is that Stearns was also aggressive in moving players to the 60-man IL. Generally, teams do that at the end of Spring Training, opening up a roster spot for an NRI who impressed in camp and won a spot on the 40-man. Yet Stearns twice moved guys last year to the 60-day earlier in Spring Training.
Regardless, there are 17 holdovers on the 40-man now, as compared to this time the previous year. That’s actually two fewer than there were between 2023 and 2024, which is surprising to me. My guess would have been more turnover previously, with Stearns’ first year in charge and coming off a 75-win season. Yet we have continuity in the front office, along with an 89-win season – and more change in the 40-man.
Some of that is clearly by design, with signing guys to one-year deals, combined with the standard roster churn that always happens at the bottom of the 40-man. You’d never, ever want the same 40-man roster in early January that you had the previous year. But it would be curious to know Stearns’ thinking on what the optimal range would be. Is it under 20? Is it 21-25? Or is it even higher than that? It’ll be something to monitor moving forward, a chance to see how a creative PoBO operates on an annual basis.
With 37 spots filled on the 40-man, there are a minimum of three moves still to come. But it’s likely to be even more than that. We know at some point that Scott will be moved to the 60-day IL, although it’s possible they’ll do the exact opposite of what happened last year, and keep that move in their back pocket once the season starts. Or maybe Stearns again will be aggressive – there’s no way to know now.
For those gamblers out there, my over/under on 40-man roster moves before Opening Day is 6.5. And while a few of them will be to address the 26-man roster, my opinion is that the majority of them will be to fill out the team’s depth. For instance, it’s hard to imagine – especially given the team’s recent health at the position – that there won’t be a third catcher added to the 40-man. And it’s a virtual lock that the club won’t have three catchers on the Opening Day roster.
Great job Brian. I’ve always liked Stearns ability to recognize a mistake and make a change. Julio Teheran with just 2.2 innings pitched, wins the prize I think. While there are just three spots to fill, I am still holding out that three of those on the list who’ll start the year in Syracuse will be heading to Seattle for Castillo. They are long on arms but short on a starter who can carry the team like they’ve had each time they made it to the series. Why not start strong instead of looking to the deadline to get a difference maker.
It is an interesting squad that does have good talent. Still anxiously waiting for the last few pieces to fall into place.
Most of this looks OK. There is some good depth here, but a few of these guys are certainly head-scratchers. They do have quite a bit of flexibility with the 40-man.
The little bit of gambler in me (I limit myself to a nickel-dime-quarter poker game once a month or so) is actually taking the under. There are still three slots left to add major league free agents (think Pete and Roki Sasaki) without having to remove anyone out there. Also, I agree with Brian, it is almost certain that they'll have another catcher take up one of those three slots by April 1.
It appears that Zuber has one option left. I was not happy to lose Gervase from the system last year either, but Zuber had some very good numbers before getting to Syracuse. What the heck happens when they get up there? I can't believe it is all weather-related, but the difference between Zuber's AAA Durham stats and his AAA Syr-Mets stats is extremely stark.
Azocar, De Los Santos, and Young would seem to be the first three to be bounced from the 40-man. I don't understand any of those signings as it will be difficult to see any of them getting any MLB at-bats with the Mets. Young and De Los Santos each have options, Azaocar does not.
Dylan Covey is the pitcher that is most confusing, with no options left. Danny Young does not either, which would lead to his making the pen as the token lefty, although that could change with a FA signing between now and then. It seems like Covey will have to have a terrific spring to make the squad as a long-man.
-R69