Examining the Mets' ability to score double-digit runs

The Mets have struggled to score runs so far this season but one thing they’ve done quite well is to score in double digits. On Sunday, they scored 10 runs, the seventh time this year they’ve scored at least that many in a game. That’s tied with the Yankees for the third-most in the majors. It seems like an odd thing for the team that’s 23^rd in runs per game to accomplish. Let’s see how all 30 teams rank in this stat, along with a few others for context:

Among the top five in scoring 10 or more runs, the Mets have, by far, the worst runs per game. And it’s not too hard to find out why, as they have the second-most games in the majors scoring between 0-2 runs. So, how on earth does this happen? How does a team that struggles to score most nights put together so many games with 10 or more runs?

Some things don’t lend themselves to easy explanations.

One possible theory is that the ability to be among the league leaders in scoring 10 or more runs is proof that the Mets’ offense is better than it appears – that it’s certainly capable of scoring a lot of runs. Another theory is they got lucky in those seven games. And being tied for last in games with 6-9 runs scored is more indicative of the offense, especially when combined with having the second-most games with 0-2 runs.

A lot of us greybeards grew up with the “wisdom” that what separated the best teams from the rest was the ability to win one-run games. Try telling that to the Dodgers and Yankees, who are a combined 74-44 yet just 12-19 in one-run games. Where you really see the best teams excel is in their record in blowouts, defined by margins of five-or-more runs. The Dodgers and Yankees are a combined 33-9 in blowouts.

We see that the Mets are 6-10 in one-run games, yet 9-9 in blowouts.

My opinion is that despite the injuries and under-performance of so many players on the Mets, their record when Juan Soto plays is more indicative of the talent level than their overall record. The Mets are 23-19 with Soto in the lineup and 3-14 when he sits. And a 9-9 record in blowouts fits better with a 23-19 team than a 26-33 squad. And the Mets were 1-5 in blowout games while missing Soto, making them 8-4 in blowouts with Soto in the lineup.

Overall, the offense for the 2026 Mets has been horrible. Yet while trying to project things going forward, there’s a reason for some optimism, given how the club has performed with Soto in the lineup, compared to when their star has been missing. It’s not fair to attribute all of the team’s success – or non-success – to one person. Saturday and Sunday’s wins had a lot to do with two under-performing guys in Carson Benge and Marcus Semien finally contributing.

Everyone’s an expert after things happen. There were people worried about the pitching and there were people worried about how players in new positions would perform. Yet of the 100 people who “just knew” the Mets were going to be bad and David Stearns put together a terrible team – maybe five of them voiced concerns about the team’s ability to score runs before the first game of the season.

The Mets have a little over two months before the trade deadline to determine if they’re going to be buyers or sellers. The good news is that they don’t have to make that decision today. Instead, the Mets have roughly seven weeks to show that the offense can consistently put runs on the board. People will point to the schedule and see the good teams they have to play in this stretch. They’re not going to win a lot of games if they score two or fewer runs, regardless of who they play.

The bottom line is that the Mets are going to have to hit their way back into playoff contention. It’s not an impossible task but it’s definitely an uphill climb. No one who believes right now that they cannot do it should be dismissed. And perhaps the same courtesy should be extended to those who remain optimistic.