How much do the Mets need to add to their roster to entice Juan Soto?
The Mets’ Juan Soto pursuit took its next step, with a contingent including the manager, PoBO and owner meeting with Soto and agent Scott Boras. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the meeting took place “at an undisclosed location somewhere near Newport Beach, Calif., in a very clandestine manner.” Two things to keep in mind here. First, Heyman is a known mouthpiece for Boras, which explains why he got this story in the first place. Second, Newport Beach is where the Boras Company headquarters is located. It doesn’t make any difference if the meeting took place at the office or some other Boras-owned property – or rental – in the area. It’s just that’s the reason these meetings are taking place on the West Coast, rather than, say, the Dominican Republic.
No one doubts that the Mets will step up and make a strong offer. This is their top priority and it won’t be a repeat of the Craig Counsell negotiations, where the Mets ended up with the lowest bid, as they assumed Counsell and his agents were using them to drive up the price. Soto and Boras don’t really need the Mets in that same capacity. Soto’s going to get a monster deal whether the Mets are involved or not. Obviously, they prefer the Mets to be players. But it’s not a requirement.
Of course, there’s the fear that the Mets will make an offer, the Yankees will match and Soto remains in the Bronx. We saw this type of scenario play out last year, in the Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes. But Yamamoto was leaving Japan for the first time, with L.A. being closer to home, while Soto left the Dominican in 2016. Also, the Mets were coming off a 75-win season when Yamamoto was picking his next team. In the Soto pursuit, they’re coming off an 89-win season – where they swept the Yankees – that resulted in a trip to the NLCS.
If the Mets could post an 89-win season in a year where they highlighted flexibility over all else in their offseason moves, what could they do if they took the self-imposed shackles off?
The Yankees last year posted 94 wins, five more than the Mets. But how much of that is due to Soto, himself? The free agent posted an 8.1 fWAR in 2024. He can essentially flip the script all by himself, by taking his production away from the Yankees and adding it to the Mets. Of course, nothing is done in a vacuum. But the Mets had just a .709 OPS from their right fielders last year, just the 18th-best mark in the majors. The Yankees had the best production from RF, with a .996 OPS, with Soto’s .993 mark in 660 PA doing the heavy lifting.
The Mets have many free agents departing, so they’ll have to replace them whether they sign Soto or not. But do they have to make “splash” signings to convince Soto to come to Queens? They’re going to have to do better than last year’s Band-Aid approach. But it’s not realistic to expect them to deviate from that path entirely, either. That’s where David Stearns made his bones in Milwaukee, by hitting on low-cost moves.
Fans expect the Mets to spend a ton of money because their owner is the richest one in MLB. And it should be pointed out that Steve Cohen has, indeed, spent a ton of money. But there are limits to what he’s willing to spend, regardless of those people who just focus on the Forbes’ estimates of his fortune. That should have been obvious when the club passed on signing Kumar Rocker and giving him a multi-million dollar signing bonus in 2021. That should have been obvious when the Mets did not finalize the agreed-upon deal with Carlos Correa in 2023. That should have been obvious when they did not sign a free agent last year that made more than $14.5 million.
Whether you like it or not, whether you believe it or not, there are limits to what Cohen will spend.
Now, this is not to say he won’t spend big when it seems to be both right and necessary. Among others, Cohen spent big on Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz and Justin Verlander. He was willing to spend big on Yamamoto last year and he’s willing to spend big on Soto this time around. But Cohen’s not going to spend on every shiny object out there.
The Mets need at least three starting pitchers. But they’re not going to sign the three-biggest names in free agency. Shoot, they might not get even one of the biggest names. They either need to re-sign Pete Alonso or find someone to replace him. My reading of the tea leaves is that the Mets want to retain Alonso but they’re not going to offer a 7-year deal to make that happen. And if Alonso moves on, they’re not going to knee-jerk sign the next-biggest name to replace him. And they need to add a bunch of relievers, too. And the expectation there shouldn’t be all top-of-the-market hurlers, either.
It’s a very safe bet to assume that Cohen and David Stearns will be very strategic with their signings, whether they get Soto or not. They’ll spend more than $14.5 million on players other than Soto. But, in my opinion, they’re not going to hand out three $25 million contracts in addition to Soto, not even as a way to woo him.
Last year was “proof of concept” that they didn’t have to spend at the top of the market to be successful. And that’s with several players – Alonso, Diaz, Jeff McNeil and Nimmo – turning in disappointing seasons.
The goal in 2025 isn’t to be East Milwaukee when it comes to spending. The Mets have both a ton of money coming off the books and a lot of holes to fill. They’ll spend big on at least one of those vacancies. But they don’t need to be the proverbial drunken sailor on all of the rest. And my opinion is that they will acquire players strictly on the basis of what they view as sound baseball moves, not as desperate attempts to convince Soto that they’re serious about being a winner.
I think they are going to need a legit masher to hit behind Soto, not to make the playoffs, but to get Soto in the first place. Alonso fits the bill, but no one else on the current roster does. Of the FAs available, probably only Adames or Bregman do. It’s a comparison versus Judge and that is a tough comp.
I whole both agree and disagree with you.
1. Cohen is a businessman valued at something Ike 22B$. As you said, they backed off the Correa deal because it was bad money based on discovery. And the Twins proved it was iffy. Add to that, Stearns’ capacity to sniff out a truffle in the wintertime is certainly one of his superpowers. I think both of those are perfectly true and exactly a path the Mets should and will take.
2. Where I disagree is that team is just going to lean on Stearn’s black magic as a selling point for luring in any FA, let alone Mickey Mantle, oops I mean Juan Soto. Why on earth would he sign with the Mets and a promise that were good at hunting for bargains out of the dumpster as opposed to we see the best, we get the best, to become the best, like say the Dodgers and the Dark Force across town. In that scenario, I see the Mets being useful idiots to drive up the bargaining price elsewhere. And then we can settle for “ya gotta believe” instead of “we’re going to kill you with greatness.” So count me among the folks that want Cohen to accept his role as the richest owner in the game and do his job. The Dodgers shelled out 1B$ on two players - thats the cost of playing this game at the top level unless you are the Rays or the Braves, which the Mets are not. I dont give one hoot about tax thresholds and make believe prospects down the road. When you have the right bits in place, you attack and get it done. This is that time.
So I want Soto, another hitter (Pete, Bregman), and maybe one more hitter (lets say someone not Bader), and I want Burnes and Crochet and a genuine plan to show how NY can market Sasaki and land him. That’s sets this team up for a long time to develop more of the farm on a reasonable pace.