Mets 2024 projections: Brett Baty
In the offseason before 2023, Brett Baty rocketed up prospect lists, finishing as high as No. 17 with Baseball Prospectus’ ranking. This caused some fans to want him to take over as the Mets’ starting third baseman. Then he had a very good Grapefruit League season, which caused even more fans to jump on the Baty bandwagon. And then he hit the cover off the ball in Triple-A, which caused the Mets to promote him at the end of April.
File this under, be careful what you wish for, as Baty proceeded to stink up the joint. And it’s not like he didn’t get a fair shake, as he amassed 386 PA in the majors last year. So, how do you reconcile Baty’s strong minor league production – from rookie league to Triple-A – with his dismal rookie season, one where he was comfortably below The Galvis Line with a 65 OPS+? Here’s how the computer model forecast Baty for 2024:
ATC – 428 PA, .238/.310/.380, 12 HR
Marcel – 399 PA, .231/.298/.376, 12 HR
Steamer – 406 PA, .247/.320/.419, 15 HR
THE BAT – 428 PA, .235/.304/.366, 11 HR
ZiPS – 509 PA, .245/.317/.395, 17 HR
That’s more of a consensus than my expectation coming into this piece. It’s not unusual for the models to differ on a young player and my thought was that the polar opposites of his minor league production and his major league output would add to the confusion. Instead, they all see him being a below-average player. Some have made the comparison to Bryson Stott, who rebounded from a poor year as a rookie in 2022 to post a 3.9 fWAR last year. The highest total among our projections for Baty is a 1.7 fWAR by ZiPS.
This time last year, fans and analysts alike were raving about Baty’s picture-perfect swing. It may look pretty but the results simply weren’t there. And my subjective view is it wasn’t a case of pitchers exploiting one area of the strike zone or having one specific pitch that gave him fits. Rather, Baty seemed to have multiple holes in his swing. And the Pitch Values section on FanGraphs show him in negative numbers against fastballs, sliders, cutters, curves and change ups. Ouch.
When there are this many issues to deal with, it’s tough to imagine an easy fix. It’s not unreasonable to suggest that Baty get at least 200 consecutive ABs in Triple-A to start 2024. He has just 147 PA at that level and those were spread among three distinct periods. My overwhelming preference is to give players from the farm system a shot. But Baty got a shot last year and fell on his face.
The Mets did not add a starting-caliber third baseman in the offseason. And David Stearns said that young players need a shot. Those two things indicate the Mets are planning to go with Baty in the majors at the start of the season. Most times it would make me very happy to hear this. My hope is that Baty takes this chance and runs with it. But a demotion to the minors at some point this season seems almost inevitable. My totally biased forecast for Baty is:
325 PA, .239/.305/.367, 9 HR