Mets 2025 projections: Brandon Nimmo

It was a wacky year for Brandon Nimmo in 2024. He got off to a lousy start and then closed the first half on a very strong note. And then he didn’t hit at all in the second half of the season. Nimmo had a great playoff series against the Phillies and then could barely move against the Dodgers, done in by plantar fasciitis. After an offseason of rest and recovery, the hope is that his foot troubles are behind him. Nimmo has eased into Spring Training the past few years and the plan was the same this time. But after playing in one Grapefruit League game, Nimmo took time off due to knee soreness. Ordinarily, that wouldn’t be too much of a concern. But coming off the plantar fasciitis, it has everyone a bit more worried.

The projection models are unaware of the various aches and pains that Nimmo has endured in the past 12 months. All they know is that he’s played 150 games the past three seasons. That and his overall numbers declined last year and that 2025 will be Nimmo’s age-32 season. Here are the computer forecasts for him in 2025:

ATC – 600 PA, .247/.343/.411, 18 HR
Marcel – 600 PA, .250/.342/.422, 19 HR
OOPSY – 581 PA, .248/.342/.416, 18 HR
Steamer – 595 PA, .252/.347/.415, 18 HR
THE BAT – 600 PA, .245/.343/.414, 18 HR
ZiPS – 622 PA, .251/.348/.419, 19 HR

As expected, the computer models are all very similar in what they project for the veteran Nimmo. And unlike with the forecasts for Pete Alonso, these models don’t see a return to 2022-levels of production for Nimmo, which goes to show the impact of the age factor, with Alonso being two years younger.

The one thing that surprises me with the computer forecasts is that they’re not more aggressive with the home run projections. Nimmo has gone from 8 HR in 2021 to 16 HR to 24 HR to 23 HR last season. No doubt that’s due to the forecast of fewer PA from all six models. Still, it seems odd that not one of them has him reaching 20 homers.

Ordinarily, seeing these types of forecasts for Nimmo would seem outrageous to me. But given how awful he was in the second half of 2024 – a .595 OPS in 262 PA – it’s impossible to manufacture any outrage. Nimmo is in full “prove it” mode at this point, not much different from proving he could stay healthy after suffering injury-shortened years in 2019 and 2021.

Last year, we were curious about how the new regime would handle playing time. The Mets’ veterans had logged heavy minutes under the Buck Showalter/Billy Eppler era but it was far from a given that they would with two new individuals in charge. But it seemed there was no dropoff in that department. Alonso played in all 162 games, Lindor played virtually every inning of every game before coming down with an injury in September and Nimmo played 151 games.

Yet Nimmo’s recent injuries, combined with a potentially deeper roster, might mean fewer games and PA for the Mets’ left fielder.

Before we get to my Nimmo projection, here’s what my forecast was for 2024: 675 PA, .286/.377/.490, 25 HR. The guesses for PA and HR were very good. And the spread between AVG and OBP was solid, too. Nimmo simply didn’t have the AVG that was forecasted. The power didn’t quite meet my expectations, either.

Now, we have to factor in Nimmo being another year older and with more injury questions than he had this time last year. The forecast simply cannot be as aggressive as it was a season ago. Here’s my totally biased projection for my favorite player:

605 PA, .275/.360/.455, 21 HR

You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you think Nimmo will do this year. All predictions for him are welcome, although the ones that use the same five categories as the article make me smile.