Mets 2025 projections: David Peterson

Even though he didn’t make his first start of the season until May 29, it was the best year of David Peterson’s MLB career. He set personal-bests in IP (121), BB/9 (3.42), HR/9 (0.60) and ERA (2.90). But the ERA estimators all view Peterson as having some good fortune in 2024. He recorded a 3.67 FIP, a 4.10 xFIP and a 4.59 xERA. So, do the computer models put more faith in Peterson’s results or his peripherals? Here are his forecasts:

ATC – 139 IP, 3.82 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.37 K/9, 0.95 HR/9
Marcel – 127 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.346 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
OOPSY – 152 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.55 K/9, 0.87 HR/9
Steamer – 152 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.29 K/9, 0.97 HR/9
THE BAT – 139 IP, 4.29 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 8.21 K/9, 1.01 HR/9
ZiPS – 127.2 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.46 K/9, 0.92 HR/9.

The first four system above see Peterson delivering the same sort of quality, if they don’t quite agree on the quantity. The final two are more bearish on the quality. Lifetime, Peterson has a 4.08 ERA in the majors, although twice he had seasons with an ERA in the fives. But even though he’s been around since the Covid year, Peterson has just 454 IP in the majors.

Another thing that should be mentioned about Peterson’s 2024 is that he had the worst strikeout rate since 2020, dropping from a K/9 of 10.38 in 2023 to a 7.51 mark last season. Proportionally fewer walks, fewer strikeouts and fewer home runs mean more balls in play. Traditionally, batters have run high BABIPs versus Peterson but last year he was much closer to league average, with a .293 BABIP, which was 77 points lower than his mark in the category in 2023.

Strikeouts aside, an awful lot of things went right for Peterson last season. Is that the result of a pitcher who was finally healthy and in the middle of his prime? Or was it more due to smoke and mirrors?

One last thing to consider is Peterson’s pitch mix. He throws five different pitches, with four of them being thrown at least 16% of the time. Three of Peterson’s offerings had negative values in 2023 and he cut down the percentage he threw each of those pitches in 2024. And throwing those pitches fewer times resulted in better run values across the board, with two of those pitches even moving into positive numbers.

Since he has a full repertoire, Peterson could potentially shelve his slider completely. It had a run value of (-6.2) last year, which was an improvement on his (-10) results with the pitch in 2023. It will be curious to see if Peterson continues to lean in with more sinkers, a pitch he threw 31% of the time in 2024, up from 25.3% the previous season. The sinker was also his best pitch, with a 10.6 run value, in addition to the offering he threw most often.

It’s unrealistic to expect Peterson to post a sub-3.00 ERA again in 2025. But the good news is that he doesn’t have to in order to be successful. Hardly anyone expects him to be better than an SP3, trailing Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga in the pecking order. Last year, 156 pitchers threw at least 70 innings as a starter. When we sort them by ERA, we find that they ranged from a 3.65 to a 4.14 mark. Five of our six projection models have Peterson in this range. Here’s my totally biased forecast for Peterson this year:

150 IP, 3.90 ERA, 1.350 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9

You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you think Peterson will do this year. All predictions for him are welcome, although the ones that use the same five categories as the article make me smile.