Mets 2025 projections: Francisco Lindor

Up until his September injury – and a ridiculous closing month by the eventual winner – Francisco Lindor had a legitimate case for MVP. And this despite hitting like Luisangel Acuna for the first 55 games of the season. In his final 442 PA, Lindor had a .309/.380/.572 line. If only we could get him not to stink the first two months of the year.

And now he’ll likely be hitting in front of Juan Soto. In 2018, Lindor led the league with 129 runs scored while batting leadoff all season. He has a chance to challenge that mark, as well as the Mets’ single-season record for runs, currently held by Carlos Beltran when he scored 127 runs in 2006. The computer models won’t take into account his position in the lineup. But here’s what they see likely from Lindor in 2025:

ATC – 671 PA, .257/.332/.459, 28 HR
Marcel – 613 PA, .262/.334/.465, 26 HR
OOPSY – 686 PA, .254/.328/.449, 28 HR
Steamer – 688 PA, .257/.335/.451, 28 HR
THE BAT – 671 PA, .254/.327/.457, 29 HR
ZiPS – 656 PA, .260/.337/.462, 27 HR

Steamer had the most runs scored, with 100. Regardless, these all seem on the pessimistic side to me. Here’s what Lindor’s done the past three seasons:

22 - .270/.339/.449
23 - .254/.336/.470
24 - .273/.344/.500

Marcel, the simplest of the models, predicts the best season. The other five systems are all incorporating extra information into their forecasts and they all work together to make him worse. The one that really stands out is OOPSY, which is supposed to include factors to predict better seasons from the best players. And it has Lindor with the lowest SLG and the second-lowest OBP.

This century only four shortstops had a .500 SLG in their age-30 season, with two of them doing it last year, as Corey Seager joined Lindor. The other two players – Miguel Tejada and Carlos Guillen – also cleared a .500 mark the following season. Jose Valentin had a .491 SLG in his age-30 campaign and posted a .509 mark the following year. It’s certainly not unprecedented for shortstops to follow up with a second straight good SLG season. Yet the forecasts all see Lindor dropping at least 35 points of SLG.

It’s natural for fans to overrate the players on their favorite team, which is why it’s good to look at the non-biased computer numbers. To me, it seems logical to expect some regression, combined with some age-related decline. It’s probably not realistic to expect another .500 SLG season from Lindor, even if he did it from 2017-19 while in Cleveland.

My hope is that Lindor gets off to a better start, even if he doesn’t enjoy the extended peak from 2024. It will be curious to see if pitchers work Lindor differently, with Soto lurking. My guess is – no, but it’s far from a slam dunk. It would be nice if they ended up throwing him fewer curves, which is a pitch he hasn’t had a ton of success against the past two years. But you throw fastballs and sliders to Lindor at your own risk. Here’s my totally biased prediction for 2025 for the Mets’ shortstop:

701 PA, .265/.345/.475, 31 HR

You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you think Lindor will do this year. All predictions for him are welcome, although the ones that use the same five categories as the article make me smile.