Mets 2025 projections: Juan Soto

Last year Juan Soto had a 180 wRC+, which tied for the sixth-highest mark this century for players age 25 or younger who qualified for the FanGraphs leaderboard. Top on the list? Soto, again, in the truncated 2020 season, when he posted a 202 wRC+. The Mets added one of the premier young players in the game when they signed Soto in the offseason. And they’ll have him for his entire prime, which is generally considered a player’s output between his age-26-to-30 seasons.

The Mets this offseason refused to give players on the wrong side of 30 a deal longer than three years yet they gave Soto a 15-year deal, which will include all of his 30s. Why was that okay? The simple answer is that there’s no other way to get a prime free agent in his mid-20s without giving a contract of at least 10 years. It’s the cost of doing business. And the good news is that Soto has an opt-out after five years, so this might turn out to be a five-year deal, which is what you’d ideally sign him for, anyway.

But that’s a bridge for another day. What do the computer models see Soto doing in his first year as a Met? Here are the forecasts:

ATC – 670 PA, .279/.417/.535, 35 HR
Marcel – 627 PA, .273/.404/.516, 31 HR
OOPSY – 686 PA, .289/.423/.553, 37 HR
Steamer – 676 PA, .282/.421/.538, 35 HR
ZiPS – 672 PA, .276/.426/.521, 33 HR

That OOPSY projection also includes a 173 wRC+, the third-best mark in the majors and two points better than 2024 MVP Shohei Ohtani. There’s a little bit more of a wider range here than you might expect among the computer forecasts. While Soto is young, he has over 4,000 PA in the majors – enough that you’d anticipate the models being in closer agreement. But they all see him with at least a .404 OBP and at least a .516 SLG.

Only nine players had a .900 OPS last year in the majors and Soto finished third with a .989 mark. Francisco Lindor led the Mets with an .844 OPS, Mark Vientos was second with an .837 mark and Pete Alonso was third with a .788 OPS.

There’s a concern that Soto’s numbers were boosted by playing in Yankee Stadium, a park that favors lefty-hitting sluggers. But Soto did not receive any extra help from his home park last year. Here are his Home/Road splits:

H – 20 HR, .285/.401/.559
R – 21 HR, .292/.437/.580

Additionally, Soto has played 35 lifetime games at Citi Field, amassing 146 PA in what is now his home park. Here’s how he’s done: .333/.466/.709

While Citi Field typically plays as a slight pitcher’s park, Soto has mashed there. He has the fifth-highest OPS at Citi Field of any park he’s played in and the highest number of PA in those other four parks is the 65 he has a Great America Ball Park in Cincinnati. And he has good numbers in the home parks of the Mets’ main two divisional rivals. Soto has a 1.127 OPS in 170 PA in Truist Park in Atlanta and a 1.086 OPS in 178 PA in Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

Some may worry about a marquee player in his first year with the Mets, holding up Lindor and Carlos Beltran as two prime examples of a star player failing to live up to expectations in their first season in Queens. Lindor had only played in Cleveland prior to joining the Mets, while Beltran also only played in flyover country in Kansas City and Houston. Soto has played in D.C., San Diego and New York, performing in major markets where the spotlight shines the brightest. Theoretically, he should have fewer issues playing in New York than those others. And having Lindor as a teammate, an established star who stands up daily with the press, should only help.

While Soto might not match his terrific numbers from 2024, it’s my opinion that the computer models are being a bit too conservative with him in the power department. My totally biased forecast is for 675 PA, .281/.414/.544, 38 HR.

You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you think Soto will do this year. All predictions for him are welcome, although the ones that use the same five categories as the article make me smile.