Mets 2025 projections: Mark Vientos

Perhaps the biggest pleasant surprise of 2024 was the play of Mark Vientos. At the last minute, Vientos lost his spot on the Opening Day roster and started the season in the minors. He came up for a brief spell and then went back to Syracuse. But he came up for good in mid-May and ended the year with 27 HR and a 135 OPS+ in 454 PA. It looks like the sky’s the limit for Vientos.

Yet in his last 157 PA, a span where he had a .343 BABIP, Vientos had a .243/.287/.438 line. Even with the hits falling in for him, Vientos was getting hurt by a ton of strikeouts. He fanned 60 times in this stretch, a 38.2 K%. Power hitters are going to strike out. But among the top 30 HR hitters with enough PA to qualify for the leaderboards, not one of them had a 30.0 K%, much less a 38.2 mark.

The projection models are not going to take into account what Vientos did in his final 157 PA. Instead, they’re going to focus on his full-season marks in the majors and, for the non-Marcel systems, what he did in the minors. Here are their forecasts for Vientos in 2025:

ATC – 606 PA, .242/.303/.448, 29 HR
Marcel – 450 PA, .251/.309/.456, 21 HR
OOPSY – 665 PA, .242/.304/.448, 32 HR
Steamer – 628 PA, .248/.313/.468, 32 HR
THE BAT – 606 PA, .233/.293/.423, 26 HR
ZiPS – 560 PA, .250/.313/.459, 26 HR

Sometimes, it’s hard as a fan to accept that a young guy who did really good in 454 PA won’t do even better in 600-plus PA. The computer projections don’t really predict a big step forward for Vientos in 2025. But if we were told this time last year that the forecasts for Vientos in 2025 would be around a .750 OPS with around 30 HR – we all would have signed on the dotted line to receive that.

Regardless, Steamer is the most bullish on Vientos, having him with the top OPS at .781 and tied for the most homers with 32. On the flip side, THE BAT is the most bearish, with the lowest OPS at .716 and tied for the fewest HR (non-Marcel division) with 26. It’s not surprising to see such a wide range of forecasts for a young player. Yet I’m a touch surprised that we don’t have both a better top-end outcome, as well as a worst bottom-end projection.

Outside of THE BAT, the other five models all see somewhat similar slash lines for Vientos. If we assume that’s the right ballpark – how much of a core player is he? Again, a .750 OPS and 30 HR is nothing to dismiss lightly. But here’s where we are better served looking at the bigger picture. And while it includes defensive numbers, we should look at the projected fWAR totals for Vientos:

3.4 – Steamer
3.1 – ZiPS
3.0 – OOPSY
2.5 – ATC
1.9 – THE BAT

The hope is that the leaders in fWAR for the 2025 Mets will be Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Juan Soto. If your fifth-most-productive player has a 3.0 fWAR, that’s not too shabby. Let’s just hope that THE BAT isn’t right.

The numbers posted above on how Vientos closed the season worry me. Maybe that’s me being too pessimistic. Afterall, that was still a .735 OPS in what we hope would be a bad stretch over 600-plus PA. But if pitchers are going to strike him out nearly 40% of the time, it’s tough to see the BABIP being that good. In his first six PA in Spring Training, Vientos has not fanned once. That’s a good tiny baby step and may it continue going forward. Regardless, here’s my totally biased forecast for Vientos:

630 PA, .235/.295/.425, 32 HR

You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you think Vientos will do this year. All predictions for him are welcome, although the ones that use the same five categories as the article make me smile.