Mets relievers hold up in May after heavy usage in April

In the first month of the season, the Mets were 21-10 and people were talking about how the pitching results were screwy. The starters weren’t going deep enough into games and the relievers would get burnt out with all of the innings they were asked to contribute. Sure enough, the Mets are 9-10 so far in May and reality seems to be setting in for the team. But is it really?

In March/April here are the splits between starters and relievers for the Mets:

SP – 257.1 IP, 2.83 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.66 xFIP
RP – 182.2 IP, 2.91 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 3.76 xFIP

And here are the numbers here so far in May:

SP – 100.2 IP, 3.75 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 4.07 xFIP
RP - 63.1 IP, 2.42 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 4.43 xFIP

In the first month of the year, the starters contributed 58.5% of the innings
So far in May, the starters have given 61.4% of the innings

And with carrying a slightly larger load, the starters have seen their numbers take a hit, with an ERA 92 points higher. And with having to pitch proportionally fewer innings, we see the relievers’ ERA has dropped nearly half a run. But that’s looking at things in a vacuum. How did the league do in these splits?

March/April MLB splits:

SP – 7772.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 4.01 xFIP
RP – 5292.2 IP, 4.11 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 4.09 xFIP

May MLB splits

SP – 3012.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 3.95 xFIP
RP – 1969.2 IP, 4.39 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 4.11 xFIP

In the first month of the year, MLB starters pitched 59.5% of the innings, 1% more than the Mets.
So far here in May, MLB starters have contributed 60.5% of the innings, 0.9% less than the Mets.

The league’s starters have seen their ERA go down here in May, while the league’s relievers have gotten worse.

It’s too early to declare victory but so far, the relievers for the Mets have not been burned out by the workload they were asked to carry in March/April. Of course, this can easily change as we get deeper into the season. But early results are encouraging, especially given losing A.J. Minter and Danny Young due to injury and with Dedniel Nunez unable to match his results from a year ago.

One thing we’ll have to monitor is if the relievers will continue to suppress homers going forward. As you know, xFIP normalizes HR rate and the relievers had an xFIP two full runs worse than their ERA so far in May. It’s not all due to homers – reliever FIP (which uses actual HR) is up substantially, too, from ERA.

Two relievers in particular are worth watching. Here are their ERAs, FIPs and xFIPS:

Huascar Brazoban – 0.90 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 3.24 xFIP
Reed Garrett – 0.95 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 4.12 xFIP

We can debate the usefulness of xFIP, as some pitchers are consistently capable of suppressing their home run rates. But Brazoban and Garrett having FIPs more than two runs higher than their ERAs is certainly a warning sign.