On Francisco Alvarez, Kodai Senga and free agent spending on the bullpen

The Mets have made a bunch of low-level moves, necessary depth signings, but nothing that would get the average fan excited about 2025.  With that as our backdrop, here’s a look at some big-picture items facing the team.  Chris Flanders joins me to discuss these items.

Brian: The Mets desperately need pitching and they certainly wouldn't turn their nose up at a middle-of-the-order bat.  But is it possible that what they really need most is 130 starts from Francisco Alvarez?  It's not a coincidence that they had their worst results all season while Alvarez was on the IL.  In games he started, the Mets were 58-27.  Thats a .682 winning percentage and would produce 111 wins over 162 games.  Do you think that's a fluke or is there something to it?

Chris: I think there’s maybe a little to it, but not a ton. A lot of game variables in there to just primarily credit Alvarez for the success. That said, the Mets are a better team with him behind the plate. I hope he can come through the hitting woes and, to me, mature more from the “young gun” attitude. He needs to stop snap throwing and concentrate on catching fundamentals. But he is our guy, and we need him out there.

I’d like to return to your opening thoughts though. I think there’s maybe team desperately needs consistent middle of the order thump. Look, I loved this nerve-wracking season as much as anyone, but banking on 8th and 9th inning heroics is way too dangerous for me. I hear you saying this team was the best in the bigs for months on end, but the fact is the magic could have ended at quite a few points. We need a consistent threat and less of the feast-famine cycle. 

But let’s face it, regardless of all the advanced analytics, we all can see this team needs pitching, pitching, pitching, and a bit more pitching. I personally think to be taken seriously, this team needs to find and exceed replacing the Manaea and Severino. I’m ok-ish in bringing Manaea back, but it’s not without some hesitation. I’d rather bring in two starters to be SP1 and SP2. I do not see any reason to be more than just hopeful for Senga given his substantive injury woes and lack of innings - maybe 120 max? So, what do you see for Senga and staffing the starters?

Brian: I worry more about Alvarez being too pull conscious than whatever issues he may have defensively.

As for Senga, I believe in the stuff.  But it’s hard to know how many innings to count on for him, both due to health considerations and for the uncertainty if he can function on what we consider normal days of rest in a five-man rotation.  It made sense to me to continue to pitch him with extra rest last year and if that was true then, it should be true now.

Yet, it bothers me now, which I can’t properly explain why.  Maybe it’s like Starling Marte not learning English.  At some point, you’ve got to play be the same “rules” as the rest of your teammates.  If they conduct interviews in English, you should too.  If all of the other starters pitch on four days rest, you should too.

But maybe this is what baseball in general and the Mets in particular need to stop the proliferation of bullpen arms.  A six-man rotation and a seven-man pen.  As you can see, I’m conflicted.  Where I’m more certain is that Senga, Manaea and one other good starter is a nice jump on a good rotation.  Do you see any way David Stearns pays the price, whether that’s money with free agents or prospects in a trade, to get a top-flight starter?

Chris: For me it’s both sides of the ball with Alvarez. He can coast us real games with his defense, like being unable to throw a runner out and give away so, so many bases. That’s not major league. Pull happy? Isn’t that your calling card? I think he needs to relax, stop believing the hype, and just see-ball, hit-ball. He’d be much better as a gap-to-gap doubles guy in my opinion.

I think the Mets knew that they were getting a 5-rest day guy in Senga. He’s likely been pitching that way for 15 years or more. That’s quite an ask. And as far as innings go, I see him for whatever reason being in the 100-120. That leaves a lot of innings. I can see you must be conflicted because you’ve talked quite a bit about a 6-man rotation for some time. I don’t think Manaea and Senga is sufficient, and really not by a long shot. I’d be in on two. Everyone knows a team will need eight starters and the damage only propagates into the end of the season when innings pile up. I hope he trades *and* buys into front end pitching. I am all in on ‘25 and for a number of years beyond. And, I really am not concerned about money.

So, reading into your crystal ball, what do you think the final payroll will be? <250M$? 250-275M$? 275-300M$? >300M$?

Brian: I’m all about players doing what they need to do to be successful.  With Jeff McNeil, that’s pulling the ball.  But we see how successful Mark Vientos is by using the whole field.  And that’s the approach Alvarez should model.  As for defense, Alvarez improved markedly in throwing last year as the season progressed.

Other pitchers from Japan have adapted to pitching in a five-man rotation.  Yu Darvish, Hideo Nomo and Masahiro Tanaka are among those from Japan who all pitched regularly on normal rest – why can’t Senga?  But if a six-man rotation is what it takes to get Jose Butto a rotation spot, count me in, I suppose.

As for payroll, my guess is that even the Mets don’t know at this point.  An Opening Day payroll of $270 million wouldn’t shock me.  An OD payroll of $330 million wouldn’t surprise me, either.  It might all depend on if they get Juan Soto or not.  My opinion is that it will be somewhat similar to last year with Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  They’re prepared to spend the money necessary.  But they’re not going to spend money to just spend money.  They’re not going to just sign, say, Corbin Burnes because they didn’t get Soto.  They can make a lot of moves with the money coming off the books without having the top payroll in the league.

My final question for you: How much should the Mets spend on the bullpen?  It’s a tough question because Dedniel Nunez and Sean Reid-Foley pitched well when healthy.  But can the club count on them to each throw 60 innings in 2025?  You can put Reed Garrett in that mix, too.  It would be great if that trio gave the Mets 180 IP in 2025.  But they combined for just 114 IP this past season.

Chris: I’ve thought a fair bit about the pen and I think this is where Stearns will really shine. I’m sort of at the 10M$ level to staff the pen, perhaps a bit more. The Jose Siri move was cheap for patching CF, so I’d be fine taking the difference to $10M on say the Harrison Bader equivalent contract and adding $10M more. Relievers are mercurial and I just think we've already dumped a ton on Edwin Diaz. I think Stearns can be crafty trading too. I’d be looking to trade McNeil!

Brian: Yeah, it seems unlikely to me that the Mets will be shopping at the top of the reliever market.  My take is they bring on two guys at the $5-8 million range each and then a bunch of guys who can start in Syracuse and then possibly be promoted mid-season, if necessary.