On Juan Soto's HR that sent the Yankees to the World Series
The following quote comes from a pitch-by-pitch breakdown of the extra-inning AB between Juan Soto and Hunter Gaddis in Game 5 of the 2024 ALCS.
This is how a hitter can command the plate—well, it’s how one very special hitter commands the plate. Soto refused to let the at-bat end without the heater he desired, and he wasted four sliders and two changeups to force Gaddis to throw it. When he got what he was looking for, he swung with a degree of violence that no one else can harness as well as he does. Giancarlo Stanton swings with the greatest ferocity and Luis Arraez has the most surgical precision, but no one marries those two traits like Soto, and he does so with baseball’s most discerning eye too.
The ball traveled 402 feet with an exit velocity of 109.7 mph, just a smidge under his 90th-percentile exit velo of 109.9. He might not be the absolute greatest hitter on Earth—though he’s easily in the top five—but no one else could’ve withstood the onslaught of nasty secondaries Gaddis flung at him, then drove his fastball out of the park—not Judge, not Ohtani, not anyone.
Source: Daniel R. Epstein, Baseball Prospectus
While this was the conclusion, it’s worth clicking on the link to see how Soto arrived at the pitch he hit for a homer. It also includes video of each offering. It’s going to be great fun to watch Soto’s ABs in 2025 and beyond.
The best offensive season in Mets' history is John Olerud's 2018, when he posted a 167 wRC+. That's one of only two seasons in team history with a mark over 160 - HoJo 166 in 1989 is the other.
Soto had a 164 mark at age 22 and a 180 mark last year in his age-25 season. Can't wait to see him write his name all over the franchise's single-season record book.
What a fantastic read. Thank you Brian for posting this deep dive. The pitch-by-pitch breakdown really showcases both Soto’s skills and the drama of that particular AB. I followed all the links in the article too and spent a lot of time checking out the “Seager” statistic. What an insightful tool!