Pumping the brakes on the Pete Alonso MVP talk
In his first 36 games, Pete Alonso had a .349/.469/.674 line with 25 BB and 24 Ks in 160 PA. Since then, he has a .242/.306/.458 line with 10 BB and 47 Ks in 170 PA. Last year, his triple slash line was .240/.329/.459 in 695 PA, with 70 BB and 172 Ks. It’s eerie how similar Alonso’s production has been recently to what he put up in 2024.
We want so much for Alonso to be a legitimate superstar, not just a power hitter. We hear Gary Cohen and others stump for Alonso as an MVP candidate. But if you want to be the MVP, you’ve got to be productive all season long, not just the first six weeks of the campaign.
One of the themes of the blog this year is not to let what a player does in a short sample - good or bad - overly influence your view on the type of season he’s having. Alonso was fantastic for six weeks of the year. But in his last 170 PA, he’s essentially been the same guy he was in 2024 - just a handful fewer walks this season since the end of his torrid start to the year.
None of us have any idea what Alonso will do the remaining 87 games of the season. It’s among the possibilities that he’ll get back to the hitter was at the beginning of the year. It’s also a possibility that he’ll be a .770 OPS guy the remainder of the campaign.
It may be overly simplistic but to me, there’s no way Alonso gets back to being the hitter he was to open the season while he’s carrying a 27.6 K%, like he has in his last 170 PA. When he enjoyed success, it came with a 15.0 K%. Maybe he needs the walks, too, to be successful. Or maybe he doesn’t. But he’s got to reel in his strikeouts.
My sincere hope is that we see a return of the Alonso who was such a joy to watch at the beginning of 2025. He was hitting for average, drawing walks and delivering power - everything you want to see. It was extremely easy to root for that version of Alonso.
But this guy who posts a .770 OPS isn’t so easy to like. That’s in the ballpark with Starling Marte, who has a .751 OPS. Absolutely, a .770 OPS is a productive player. It’s just not anyone who should be mentioned as an MVP candidate.
Life’s a lot easier for the Mets if Alonso is a feared middle-of-the-order hitter, with borderline MVP numbers. And after getting swept in back-to-back series, we could use some easy in our life right about now. Unfortunately, Alonso has gone 5-24 (.208) with 0 BB, 8 Ks and 1 XBH in 25 PA while the team has gone 0-6.
Alonso put the brakes on himself when he had .693 OPS in the month of May. Pete is having a very good season. There are players that are having a better season like Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong. Alonso should be in the discussion with "Tier II" candidates like Smith, Taylor, Tatis, Freeman and Tucker. Even Lindor and Soto should be considered in the backend of the MVP ballot if it was voted today. I too hope that Pete continues to put up borderline MVP numbers for the rest of the season.
Not to get too far ahead but if Pete continues the year at his recent pace, the Mets will be in a similar predicament as last off-season with regard to signing him. My sense is that the fan base will demand and extension even more than last year because of his fast start. Like everyone else I hope he goes in a tear and makes that academic. Given Vientos uncertainty there’s even less of an internal backup plan than last year.
But there is plenty of season to get this sorted.