Resisting the urge to reunite the band, small samples and BABIP, Pete Alonso's early results

It seems fair to say that Mets fans really enjoyed the 2024 season, which featured an unexpected 89 wins during the regular season and a really unexpected trip to the NLCS, where they put up a better fight against the Dodgers than the Yankees did in the World Series. But once the offseason hit, by design, there were a bunch of players who were eligible for free agency. Whenever you have a successful season, the temptation is to put the band back together for the following season.

But it’s not always a good idea. In the pre-free-agency days, conventional wisdom was that it was better to trade a good player a year too soon, rather than a year too late. Then, like now, the idea is that you don’t want to be left holding the bag, paying for the memories of what a player was, rather than what he is today and in the future.

So, how did the Mets do in this regard? There were 11 players who played – or were expected to play – a meaningful role on the club in 2024. David Stearns re-signed Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea, Ryne Stanek and Jesse Winker, while saying good-bye to Harrison Bader, Jose Iglesias, J.D. Martinez, Phil Maton, Adam Ottavino, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino. It seems safe to say that Stearns did not prioritize bringing back guys from the 2024 run.

Severino signed elsewhere early, for a contract that was more than was expected. If he was still available now, fans would probably be itchy for the Mets to bring him back, no different than Iglesias and, to a lesser extent, Quintana. But the saving grace was re-signing Alonso. And one could argue that while they overpaid, Stearns was able to get him on a short-term deal, meaning that at worst he’ll be left holding the bag for two seasons.

Then add in signing Juan Soto and grabbing one of the top IFA in Elian Pena and it’s reasonable to conclude that Stearns played his cards right this offseason. Many rue the decision not to bring in another highly rated starter but if Clay Holmes can hold up under a starter’s workload, the offseason will look even better.

MOVE OVER HALL, THERE’S A BETTER BLADE IN TOWN – In the mid-1970s, the Mets had a lefty pitcher named Tom Hall, who was nicknamed, “The Blade.” Hall spent 10 years in the majors and had his worst production the two partial seasons he played in Queens. Because that’s how it played out more often than not for the Mets in the 70s.

Regardless, top pitching prospect Blade Tidwell rebounded from a rocky first outing to put up a dominating effort against the Rays yesterday. He threw two shutout innings with five strikeouts, including an immaculate frame while facing MLB players, not Lo-A scrubs. Tidwell has electric stuff, if not always electric results. He’s one of many pitchers who hit a wall in Triple-A here recently. It would be great if Tidwell and Brandon Sproat – who has been very good in two Grapefruit League starts – can go back to Syracuse, conquer that level and be legitimate options for the Mets in the second half of 2025.

SMALL SAMPLES AND BABIP – It used to be a good rule of thumb that a “normal” BABIP was around .300 but with advances made by pitchers using technology to improve their repertoires, it’s more accurate to say a “normal” BABIP is in the low .290s. Last season, the MLB average was a .291 BABIP and four times in the past five years, it’s been a mark between .290 and .292 in the majors. Of course, what’s “normal” for the league is not necessarily what’s “normal” for the individual. Over the past five seasons, Alonso has a .259 BABIP, while Starling Marte has posted a .327 mark. If both of those players posted a .290 BABIP in 2025, it wouldn’t be “normal” for either one of them. It would be the hits falling in for Alonso and bad luck for Marte.

While individuals can and do run high BABIPs, we still need to distinguish between someone like Marte running an elevated mark and someone just enjoying incredibly good fortune. For Mets fans, there’s no better example than 2020 Michael Conforto, who in 233 PA ran a .412 BABIP. This made people who ignored the stat clamor for the Mets to sign Conforto to a multi-year deal. They tried, but Conforto turned down their 9-digit offer to become a free agent. It didn’t work out well for the player.

Just like it’s easier to hit .400 over a week or a month, it’s easier to run a high BABIP in small samples – like Conforto in 2020. Which brings us to Luisangel Acuna. In 587 PA in Triple-A, Acuna ran a .299 BABIP. While minor league numbers are not necessarily direct comparisons to MLB numbers, it was a fairly “normal” BABIP for a Syracuse hitter. As a team, Syracuse posted a .297 BABIP last year.

With the injury to Francisco Lindor, Acuna got a cup of coffee with the Mets last year. And in his first 10 games, Acuna ran a .360 BABIP, while also showing power long-rumored, but seldom-seen. And then he went 0-7 to close the regular season and 0-3 with 2 strikeouts in the playoffs. Acuna had a strong winter ball season. But again, it was greatly boosted with a .383 BABIP in 119 PA.

Nothing would be better for the Mets than for Acuna to develop into the star that some view him as already to be. But since joining the Mets, Acuna’s only success has come with high BABIP rates in small samples. It’s very possible that Acuna will be like Marte and run elevated BABIPs. But he’s not likely to run a .360 mark over a full season like he did in his first 10 games in the majors, to say nothing of the .383 mark this year in Venezuela.

THE RETURN OF THE OPTION-RELIEVER STRATEGY – Former GM Billy Eppler believed in assembling a bullpen with 4-5 locks and 3-4 relievers with options, while also stashing additional relievers with options in the minors. The plan was to cycle thru those option relievers, until finding ones to have success. It wasn’t good in 2022 and it was a dismal failure in 2023.

Now, the Mets again are touting the virtues of the option-reliever strategy. However, Stearns has put an emphasis on better relievers. If they’re all healthy, there are six relievers who had good seasons in 2024, with the final spot going to whichever starter doesn’t make the 6-man rotation. But behind those six relievers are a bunch of players with options who can fill in for injured or ineffective relievers. It seems like a much-better plan.

SPRING TRAINING STATS MEAN NOTHING – Earlier we talked about small samples and Spring Training stats have the 1-2 combo of small samples and not-quite-MLB competition. But as long as we keep those things in the very front of our mind, we can still look at the results in Grapefruit League play and look for encouraging things.

With the Mets re-signing Alonso when they did, he has the advantage of having a full Spring Training, unlike Martinez, who signed late last season and seemingly played catch-up all year. And Alonso is off to a great start. Three of his six hits have gone for extra-bases and he has 5 BB and 0 Ks. It would be wonderful if Alonso cut down on his strikeouts. He had an 18.7 K% in 2022 but that’s risen the past two years, to 22.9% in 2023 and 24.7% a season ago. Here’s hoping Alonso gets back under 20% in 2025.