The Mets are 25-1 in games where their starters go at least 5 IP and give up fewer than 2 ER

Last night Clay Holmes allowed just one earned run, something that seems like it happens often with Mets starting pitchers here in 2025. Not counting openers, the Mets have had 20 games where their starter allowed just one earned run. It goes a long way towards explaining how the club has a 2.84 ERA from their SP. Additionally, there have been 13 games where the starter has not allowed an earned run. Let’s break it down by individual pitchers and we’ll include Quality Starts, too:

Paul Blackburn threw five scoreless innings in his only start, while Brandon Waddell threw 4.1 shutout frames. Of course, one of the complaints about the starting pitching is how they haven’t gone deep into games, which is why Quality Starts are included. To qualify for a QS, you need to throw at least six innings and give up three earned runs or fewer. People always lose their mind about how can a 6 IP, 3 ER game be considered quality. Yet those people are more interested in being alarmist than considering reality. Of the Mets’ 23 Quality Starts this year, only two were of the 6 IP, 3 ER variety or 8.7%.

Back in August of 2010, we looked at Quality Starts for that season, along with the three previous years. Up to that point, the Mets had played 119 games and their pitchers had turned in 67 QS, or 56% of the time. This year’s numbers are 23 QS in 65 games, or 35.4% of the time. That’s a significant difference.

The starter got a decision in 70% of their QS back in 2010 and they had a .787 winning percentage in those games. If we add those 2010 numbers to the 2007-09 period, we get 317 QS and a 176-50 record. The starters got a decision in 71% of their QS, with a .779 winning percentage.

How do the 2025 numbers stack up? The starter gets a decision in 65.2% of their QS, with a .733 winning percentage. The numbers are down across the board. We certainly would have expected that there would be fewer QS compared to a period over a dozen years ago. It’s perhaps a bit surprising that the percentage of decisions and winning percentage is down, too. However, those numbers might rise by the end of the season, getting closer to our earlier numbers.

We all want starters to go deeper into games but the reality – for any number of reasons, both legitimate and not – is that clubs simply are not overly concerned with pushing their SP. We can shake our fist at the clouds and lament how “weak” today’s starters are. Just remember, whatever time frame that you look at, the previous generation has the same complaint. MLB has asked pitchers to do less and less over the years.

The greybeards go on and on and on and on about Bob Gibson and his 28 complete games in 34 starts back in 1968. Well, Old Hoss Radbourn had 73 complete games in 73 starts back in 1884. And he pitched two games in relief that year, too, and picked up a save. It was a different game in 1968 compared to 1884, just like it’s a different game now than in ’68.

It’s my opinion that if the starting pitcher goes at least five innings and gives up no more than one earned run, we should look at it as a very good thing. Here are the team results when a Mets’ starter does that this season:

1-0 – Blackburn
6-0 – Canning
6-0 – Holmes
3-0 – Megill
2-1 – Peterson
7-0 – Senga

That’s a team record of 25-1 when the starter goes at least five innings and gives up fewer than two earned runs. We can reminisce about the era where starters threw many more complete games. Tom Seaver’s career-best in complete games came in 1971, when he had 21 complete games. His record in those tilts? A very impressive 18-3. But it’s not as impressive as the Mets’ 25-1 record noted above.

The idea is to win games, not to play a particular style. My preference is for home runs but if the Mets had a .962 winning percentage in games they didn’t homer, you’d see me be a small-ball fan. Instead, the Mets are 10-14 in games they do not hit a home run, a .417 winning percentage.

You can say that there’s no way the team can keep up this pace. And if you do say that, you’re probably right. It’s next to impossible to keep up a .962 winning percentage. But what percentage would be unacceptable? It would have to be far, far worse to make you groan over, say, a 5.2 IP, 1 ER start.

Anyone who studied the issue knew that QS were a good thing for a team. And here in 2025, we’ve learned that it’s still good for the team – shoot, even better - if your starter goes fewer innings, so long as there’s a decrease in runs allowed. My expectation is that the 2025 team’s winning percentage when the SP goes at least 5 IP with no more than 1 ER will be better than the individual’s record of .787 when they hurled a QS in the 2007-2010 time frame discussed above.

So, you can smile at the memory of complete games. You can even yearn for the days when there were more QS. But there’s more than one way to get things done and the 2025 Mets are thriving with much-shorter outings from their starters. It gives a whole new meaning to “five and fly.” There’s no flying quite so exhilarating as the one that comes with a 25-1 mark.