Great take, Brian. I am 100% in agreement with your oft-stated position that Soto opts out after five years. If he’s still performing at his amazing high level, the Mets can re-up him. Similarly, I am hoping that the Mets and Alonso come to terms on an above-market three year deal with opt-outs for Alonso. Ideally, he has a fantastic 2026 and then can command the money Boras thinks he deserves this year. Even better is if the Mets can negotiate a buy-out if his 2024 declining trendline continues in 2025.
I think given their playoff appearances over the last three years they have placated the fan base and given a strong sign that they are heading in the right direction as a franchise. This makes Stearns’ approach logical in not signing long term contracts, save for Soto, and having patience waiting for some of the kids develop. As long as they consistently are in the playoffs, they are in contention for a title, and we can be patient. We also know they are not afraid to jettison mistakes and pay big dollars for trade deadline players. So much seems to hinge offensively on whether McNeil has a good start, there is offense out of the CF combo, and Alvarez gets his hitting back to where it was in 2023. And yes, keeping Alvarez on the field is critical. Seems the newest iteration of an Alonso contract should get a three year opt out laden deal done, but if not, the external opportunities have mostly evaporated. And if they go with a Baty or Mauricio at 3B, what do we really know about Vientos ability to play a good first base?
It always gives me a chuckle when you consider how adamant most of the fan base was about getting Stearns to the Mets, only to turn around and be exasperated at how he builds a team. Maybe the guy who consistently brings his team to the playoffs should be given a longer leash.
It would also be my hope to obtain a 500 at bat player that can produce a 120 OPS+ or better. Bregman would be ideal or Alonso would be all right if they sign a short-term deal. Mauricio and Baty are the only minor leaguers that had success in AAA and should be ready to take the next step. I don't think either one of them would be a 500 ABS 120+ OPS+ player in 2025. I think the Mets are still a playoff team If they fill the last two roster spots with them but it would just be a little bit harder. Ideally one of them will make the team to supplement Marte at DH and Bregman or Alonso will sign a short term contract.
Earlier in the offseason, I was big on Bregman. But the more I think about it, the more it seems like a bad situation, essentially replacing Alonso. Not sure who I want Stearns to target right now. I just want him to keep whoever he brings in to a short-term contract.
If Stearns signs Bregman or Alonso then Mauricio or Baty will be blocked at third base and one of them won't be on the opening day roster.
Santander,a switch hitter, could be signed for a short-term contract according to reports. He would be the DH instead of Marte. Mauricio or Baty would then be the 3B.
Profar, also a switch hitter, could be signed probably for a one-year contract or maybe 2 and he could supplement Marte at DH. He had a 3.6 bWAR, 134 OPS+ and 24 HR last year. He is versatile fielder at left field and the infield and would add some depth to the roster. If Stearns wants a short-term contract then Profar would be a best choice without blocking Mauricio or Baty at 3B and still have Marte play a role.
I like the idea of adding Profar to be the DH. Calling him a "versatile" fielder is a very kind thing to say. Reminds me of when my boss in Boston, when we worked at the Fish Pier, called the building "historic." He said it beat crumbling.
Profar is not a good defensive player in LF and this decade he hasn't played a single game at either 3B or SS.
I would rather give one more lifeline to Baty than sign Profar. I really liked Profar 10 years ago (or whenever that was that he was so highly ranked), but it just feels like his 2024 year is not sustainable. I don't understand how you think that Alonso is on the decline at age 30 and Profar is useful at age 32. Yeah, it is only half the money, but Profar has not shown that he can deliver half the production for more than one year. If you are going to gamble on the production for the dollar value, play Baty and/or Mauricio all year. (side prediction: Baty/Mauricio will out WAR Profar in 2025).
Everything is a trade-off. While Alonso may be a decent bet to have a better season than Profar - he didn't last year - he's not going to sign a straight one year deal at anything close to the AAV that Profar will. If Alonso would sign a 1/$15 deal, I'd be all for it.
Wherever he signs, Profar will play. I'd gladly wager that he'll have a higher WAR than both Baty and Mauricio.
I’m probably well in the minority but I think Baty has a realistic shot to put up a 120 OPS+. I think he’s too talented to continue with the lack of success at the big league level. I realize he hasn’t done it when he’s gotten the shot but Brian has pointed out before that he never really had any significant AAA time before he got his MLB shot. Now that he has AAA success, let’s see if he can flip the script on his MLB results.
I'm not quite as bullish on Baty's chances to do that as you seem to be. If Baty gets the Vientos-like playing time, I'd be pretty happy if he put up a 105 or so OPS+.
Very curious to see what his swing looks like now. When we last saw him in the majors, there seemed to be a lot of holes in that swing. Hopefully he won't be so overmatched this time versus MLB pitches.
Brian, as always your research is awesome. Thanks for writing this. How about trading for Triston Casas. I really would like to see McNeil dealt and let Mauricio and Acuna and even Baty battle it out for second base. My big concern is the starting staff. The starting staff has the biggest risk of underachieving. We need to add a solid starter.
I agree with Mike - good stuff here Brian! There is a lot to chew on and with the lack of progress with the position player prospects in 2024, it is really hard to see who is really going to help and when.
I read something somewhere the other day that 'Stearns may not be done adding outfielders'. I suppose as long as they are not added for more than one year (at a time), and they are actually an improvement over Taylor/Siri, or create a better platoon without sacrificing the defense, I'd be OK, but to me, the hole is not in centerfield. They need to figure out first base and add a bullpen arm or two.
I am not sure of the cost to add a player that can give you 500 ABs and get 120+ OPS+. Casas might do it - he did in 2023, but he does not yet have the history to believe he is a longer term answer. And if we did trade for him, is he long term enough to potentially block Clifford?
If you wanted to add a not great fielder at first base, but lengthen the lineup a bit, pursue a trade for Luis Arraez. He is certainly only a one year guy that seems to have a goal of winning a batting title with every club. (But ya gotta wonder why all these teams are in a hurry to trade him in the first place).
Unless they trade Marte, it doesn't make sense to add an outfielder. My opinion was that they chased Teoscar Hernandez to be the DH.
Arraez is interesting. In general, I believe he's overrated but having just the one-year contract makes him a good fit for the 2025 Mets.
As for why teams sour on him - it's pretty easy to see why. He's a singles hitter with a 3.6 BB% and a .078 ISO last year. He needs to run an ultra-high BABIP to be worthwhile. It's great that he hits .300 and rarely strikes out. But that's pretty much all that he brings to the table. And it's not like he compensates with a bunch of SB, either. He needs the hits to fall in, like at a .340 rate. He's done it a few times but it's a tough way to make a living.
We already have our Arraez, his name is Jeff McNeil. If you want Arraez, let McNeil play first. I do believe that Marte will be gone by the start of spring training. I am just an impatient fan who likes transaction action. To be fair, like Brian says, Stearns deserve a longer leash. If we think we know the teams gaps, Stearns sure as well does. I will just feel better once the final acquisitions are made. I would trade wiffle ball bat McNeil. Even let Baty play second. Could be a good solution.
I agree with Brian above about Arraez - I don't think he is a good solution, other than I am just drawn to guys that don't strike out.
And that is a really interesting solution that I had not thought of - move McNeil over to first base. I actually like that option better than moving Vientos off third base. That opens second base for a competition among Acuna, Mauricio and possibly Baty.
I have been preaching a Marte for Montgomery trade straight up all winter - I don't know why it hasn't been done yet as it is a perfect fit for Arizona's very left handed line-up. The only DH on their depth chart is also their starting second baseman. The only issue for the D-Backs is that it doesn't free up much salary, but neither does not trading Montgomery.
Trading Marte out certainly opens up place for the young guys, but is DH where you want a Mauricio or Baty? I would not move Vientos there quite yet.
The last 199 PA we saw from McNeil, he put up a .240 ISO. Show me any similar streak in Arraez' career. The idea that McNeil is a singles hitter to the extent that Arraez is, well, it just doesn't hold up.
Forget small samples. Lifetime Arraez has a .097 ISO, while McNeil has a .141 mark. That 44-point difference is huge. It's like the difference between Freddie Freeman and Jesse Winker.
Great take, Brian. I am 100% in agreement with your oft-stated position that Soto opts out after five years. If he’s still performing at his amazing high level, the Mets can re-up him. Similarly, I am hoping that the Mets and Alonso come to terms on an above-market three year deal with opt-outs for Alonso. Ideally, he has a fantastic 2026 and then can command the money Boras thinks he deserves this year. Even better is if the Mets can negotiate a buy-out if his 2024 declining trendline continues in 2025.
I think given their playoff appearances over the last three years they have placated the fan base and given a strong sign that they are heading in the right direction as a franchise. This makes Stearns’ approach logical in not signing long term contracts, save for Soto, and having patience waiting for some of the kids develop. As long as they consistently are in the playoffs, they are in contention for a title, and we can be patient. We also know they are not afraid to jettison mistakes and pay big dollars for trade deadline players. So much seems to hinge offensively on whether McNeil has a good start, there is offense out of the CF combo, and Alvarez gets his hitting back to where it was in 2023. And yes, keeping Alvarez on the field is critical. Seems the newest iteration of an Alonso contract should get a three year opt out laden deal done, but if not, the external opportunities have mostly evaporated. And if they go with a Baty or Mauricio at 3B, what do we really know about Vientos ability to play a good first base?
It always gives me a chuckle when you consider how adamant most of the fan base was about getting Stearns to the Mets, only to turn around and be exasperated at how he builds a team. Maybe the guy who consistently brings his team to the playoffs should be given a longer leash.
It would also be my hope to obtain a 500 at bat player that can produce a 120 OPS+ or better. Bregman would be ideal or Alonso would be all right if they sign a short-term deal. Mauricio and Baty are the only minor leaguers that had success in AAA and should be ready to take the next step. I don't think either one of them would be a 500 ABS 120+ OPS+ player in 2025. I think the Mets are still a playoff team If they fill the last two roster spots with them but it would just be a little bit harder. Ideally one of them will make the team to supplement Marte at DH and Bregman or Alonso will sign a short term contract.
Earlier in the offseason, I was big on Bregman. But the more I think about it, the more it seems like a bad situation, essentially replacing Alonso. Not sure who I want Stearns to target right now. I just want him to keep whoever he brings in to a short-term contract.
+1
If Stearns signs Bregman or Alonso then Mauricio or Baty will be blocked at third base and one of them won't be on the opening day roster.
Santander,a switch hitter, could be signed for a short-term contract according to reports. He would be the DH instead of Marte. Mauricio or Baty would then be the 3B.
Profar, also a switch hitter, could be signed probably for a one-year contract or maybe 2 and he could supplement Marte at DH. He had a 3.6 bWAR, 134 OPS+ and 24 HR last year. He is versatile fielder at left field and the infield and would add some depth to the roster. If Stearns wants a short-term contract then Profar would be a best choice without blocking Mauricio or Baty at 3B and still have Marte play a role.
I like the idea of adding Profar to be the DH. Calling him a "versatile" fielder is a very kind thing to say. Reminds me of when my boss in Boston, when we worked at the Fish Pier, called the building "historic." He said it beat crumbling.
Profar is not a good defensive player in LF and this decade he hasn't played a single game at either 3B or SS.
I would rather give one more lifeline to Baty than sign Profar. I really liked Profar 10 years ago (or whenever that was that he was so highly ranked), but it just feels like his 2024 year is not sustainable. I don't understand how you think that Alonso is on the decline at age 30 and Profar is useful at age 32. Yeah, it is only half the money, but Profar has not shown that he can deliver half the production for more than one year. If you are going to gamble on the production for the dollar value, play Baty and/or Mauricio all year. (side prediction: Baty/Mauricio will out WAR Profar in 2025).
Everything is a trade-off. While Alonso may be a decent bet to have a better season than Profar - he didn't last year - he's not going to sign a straight one year deal at anything close to the AAV that Profar will. If Alonso would sign a 1/$15 deal, I'd be all for it.
Wherever he signs, Profar will play. I'd gladly wager that he'll have a higher WAR than both Baty and Mauricio.
I’m probably well in the minority but I think Baty has a realistic shot to put up a 120 OPS+. I think he’s too talented to continue with the lack of success at the big league level. I realize he hasn’t done it when he’s gotten the shot but Brian has pointed out before that he never really had any significant AAA time before he got his MLB shot. Now that he has AAA success, let’s see if he can flip the script on his MLB results.
That's the ideal situation, isn't it?
I'm not quite as bullish on Baty's chances to do that as you seem to be. If Baty gets the Vientos-like playing time, I'd be pretty happy if he put up a 105 or so OPS+.
Very curious to see what his swing looks like now. When we last saw him in the majors, there seemed to be a lot of holes in that swing. Hopefully he won't be so overmatched this time versus MLB pitches.
Brian, as always your research is awesome. Thanks for writing this. How about trading for Triston Casas. I really would like to see McNeil dealt and let Mauricio and Acuna and even Baty battle it out for second base. My big concern is the starting staff. The starting staff has the biggest risk of underachieving. We need to add a solid starter.
Thanks for the kind words!
I know there's been a lot of talk about the Red Sox having Casas on the block but I have a hard time believing that one.
I agree with Mike - good stuff here Brian! There is a lot to chew on and with the lack of progress with the position player prospects in 2024, it is really hard to see who is really going to help and when.
I read something somewhere the other day that 'Stearns may not be done adding outfielders'. I suppose as long as they are not added for more than one year (at a time), and they are actually an improvement over Taylor/Siri, or create a better platoon without sacrificing the defense, I'd be OK, but to me, the hole is not in centerfield. They need to figure out first base and add a bullpen arm or two.
I am not sure of the cost to add a player that can give you 500 ABs and get 120+ OPS+. Casas might do it - he did in 2023, but he does not yet have the history to believe he is a longer term answer. And if we did trade for him, is he long term enough to potentially block Clifford?
If you wanted to add a not great fielder at first base, but lengthen the lineup a bit, pursue a trade for Luis Arraez. He is certainly only a one year guy that seems to have a goal of winning a batting title with every club. (But ya gotta wonder why all these teams are in a hurry to trade him in the first place).
Thanks Bill!
Unless they trade Marte, it doesn't make sense to add an outfielder. My opinion was that they chased Teoscar Hernandez to be the DH.
Arraez is interesting. In general, I believe he's overrated but having just the one-year contract makes him a good fit for the 2025 Mets.
As for why teams sour on him - it's pretty easy to see why. He's a singles hitter with a 3.6 BB% and a .078 ISO last year. He needs to run an ultra-high BABIP to be worthwhile. It's great that he hits .300 and rarely strikes out. But that's pretty much all that he brings to the table. And it's not like he compensates with a bunch of SB, either. He needs the hits to fall in, like at a .340 rate. He's done it a few times but it's a tough way to make a living.
We already have our Arraez, his name is Jeff McNeil. If you want Arraez, let McNeil play first. I do believe that Marte will be gone by the start of spring training. I am just an impatient fan who likes transaction action. To be fair, like Brian says, Stearns deserve a longer leash. If we think we know the teams gaps, Stearns sure as well does. I will just feel better once the final acquisitions are made. I would trade wiffle ball bat McNeil. Even let Baty play second. Could be a good solution.
I agree with Brian above about Arraez - I don't think he is a good solution, other than I am just drawn to guys that don't strike out.
And that is a really interesting solution that I had not thought of - move McNeil over to first base. I actually like that option better than moving Vientos off third base. That opens second base for a competition among Acuna, Mauricio and possibly Baty.
I have been preaching a Marte for Montgomery trade straight up all winter - I don't know why it hasn't been done yet as it is a perfect fit for Arizona's very left handed line-up. The only DH on their depth chart is also their starting second baseman. The only issue for the D-Backs is that it doesn't free up much salary, but neither does not trading Montgomery.
Trading Marte out certainly opens up place for the young guys, but is DH where you want a Mauricio or Baty? I would not move Vientos there quite yet.
Good comments! Love the ideas!
The last 199 PA we saw from McNeil, he put up a .240 ISO. Show me any similar streak in Arraez' career. The idea that McNeil is a singles hitter to the extent that Arraez is, well, it just doesn't hold up.
Forget small samples. Lifetime Arraez has a .097 ISO, while McNeil has a .141 mark. That 44-point difference is huge. It's like the difference between Freddie Freeman and Jesse Winker.
I am also a little concerned about catching depth. If Alvarez goes down for any length of time, the Mets are not well covered.
An excellent discussion, Brian, posted by Jim O'Brien
Thanks Jim!
Always interested to hear your views, on this and all other topics at the site.