The move for which David Stearns never receives criticism

David Stearns comes under a lot of scrutiny for his moves that didn’t work out, which is certainly understandable given the team’s slide since the middle of June. Some of the criticisms are a little off base, given the injuries suffered by the pitching staff. Some of the criticisms might be better directed at the manager (unless Stearns is forcing Carlos Mendoza to use certain players) for playing guys who can’t hit. But one thing he seemingly gets a free pass on is how he’s completely botched center field since the first day he arrived in Queens.

One of the first things Stearns did was to move Brandon Nimmo off center field and move him to left, with the idea that the Mets needed better defense in CF. From a purely theoretical point of view, it made sense. Defense is a young man’s game and Nimmo was on the wrong side of 30. Additionally, Nimmo was coming off a 2023 campaign where he had a 0 FRV and a (-7) DRS.

Yet there are two things that should have been considered. First, defensive stats take longer to “stabilize,” meaning the results in ’23 could have been due to sample size, rather than actual decline. The rule of thumb is that two seasons’ worth of defensive play is equal to one year’s worth of production. In the two years prior to ’23, Nimmo had a +7 FRV and a +1 DRS. We had seen Nimmo have a bad defensive year in the Covid season of 2020, where he had a (-2) FRV and a (-5) DRS in 308.1 innings in center, only to post significantly better numbers in 2021 and 2022.

Perhaps more importantly, you have to consider the sum total of a player’s contributions. If a player is a defensive wiz but can’t hit a lick, it’s extremely likely that he’s not as good as a player who’s not-so-hot defensively but is a plus with the bat. Then you have to combine that with the knowledge that it’s much easier to find a left fielder whose total package is a plus than it is to find a center fielder who delivers similar production.

WAR has positional considerations baked into its formula. It’s easier to play 1B and LF than it is C and CF. FanGraphs gives a full season position adjustment of +12.5 for a catcher and +2.5 for a CF. On the flip side, it’s a (-7.5) for a LF and a (-12.5) for a 1B. Nimmo had a 4.2 fWAR in ’23, when he was primarily a center fielder. But the move to left field in 2024, helped pull down his WAR, as he was now playing the easier position. Last year, he had a 2.8 fWAR. It wasn’t all defense, as a brutal second half of the season saw his offensive numbers crater.

Still, let’s look at what the Mets received from LF and CF the year before Stearns took over and what they’ve had since. It’s not entirely fair, as there are still seven games to play here in 2025. But it shouldn’t affect the ’25 numbers by a large margin. Here are the numbers for everyone who played the positions, with Nimmo’s numbers divided between both spots:

’23: CF 3.7 fWAR, LF 3.3 fWAR
’24: CF 1.6 fWAR, LF 2.9 fWAR
’25: CF 0.5 fWAR, LF 3.8 fWAR

After getting 7.0 fWAR in ’23 from the two positions, with Nimmo logging the majority of time in CF, they’ve received 4.5 fWAR in ’24 and 4.3 fWAR in 155 games here this season, with Nimmo seeing the majority of time in LF the past two years.

Last season, Stearns traded for Tyrone Taylor and signed Harrison Bader as a free agent to replace Nimmo in center. While playing that position, Bader had a 1.5 fWAR in 129 games, while Taylor had a (-0.1) fWAR in 37 games in CF. Nimmo got the remaining time and had a 0.2 fWAR in 26 games.

This season, Stearns let Bader walk and replaced him with Jose Siri, acquired in a trade. Someone, whether Mendoza or Stearns, moved Jeff McNeil to CF. And Stearns made the deadline deal to acquire Cedric Mullins. In all, seven players have logged time in CF for the Mets this year. Here they are, with games played, followed by their fWAR at the position. The total exceeds 155 games, as players get credited with a game, regardless if it was a full nine innings or not.

Taylor – 90, 0.3
Mullins – 36, 0.2
McNeil – 31, 0.5
Siri – 11, (-0.4)
Nimmo – 4, 0.0
Luisangel Acuna – 1, 0.0
Jose Azocar – 2, (-0.1)

By moving Nimmo away from CF, Stearns turned a position of strength into a position of weakness. We have no idea how things would have worked out if Stearns had left well enough alone and kept Nimmo in center. It’s likely he would have fallen short of his production in ’23. But it seems highly unlikely that he would have been as bad as his replacements. And we know how bad they’ve been.

Perhaps if Siri had stayed healthy, his numbers this year would have been better. But Siri can’t hit. He had one unsustainable six-week hot streak in 2023, where he hit 13 HR in 130 PA and had a .908 OPS. But from July 1, 2023 thru the end of last season, Siri had a .194/.252/.384 line in 622 PA. While he’s not as bad as his .292 OPS this year – he can usually be counted on to run into some homers and that hasn’t happened in his 36 PA – he can’t hit at a worthwhile rate, even with his strong defensive reputation.

And the trade for Mullins has been a giant flop. Maybe it wasn’t realistic to expect a .577 OPS from him. But for a PoBO who has emphasized defensive play in center field, it was surprising to see Stearns trade for a guy with a well-known noodle arm. If Stearns could live with that type of arm – why move Nimmo to a corner?

Bottom line is that the Mets need more total production from LF and CF than they’ve received the past two seasons. Stearns has gone outside the organization and looked to make cheap additions to solve a CF problem that didn’t exist before he arrived. And now we have to wonder what he’ll do with those positions in 2026.

Mullins is gone. Both Siri and Taylor are arbitration-eligible and under team control. Holding on to one of those to use as a fourth outfielder makes all kinds of sense. Running things back with both of them would be crazy. Will Stearns admit a mistake and look to move Nimmo back to center field? That seems unlikely to me.

Further complicating things is that two of the team’s top prospects have played some CF, even if it’s not their best position. Would Stearns consider starting either Carson Benge or Jett Williams in center on Opening Day next year? Neither player hit particularly well in late-season promotions to Triple-A. The hits didn’t fall in for either player at Syracuse. But Williams had a 9.3 BB% and a .224 ISO at Triple-A in 151 PA. With a normal BABIP, fans would be clamoring for Williams in the majors right now.

Do the Mets need to see him have better BABIP luck at Syracuse before considering him for the majors? This is not an Acuna situation, where the BABIP in Triple-A was completely normal and resulted in a 67 wRC+ because of a 5.5 BB% and a .097 ISO. Williams walked and hit for power and it’s only a matter of time before the hits fall in, whether in the majors or minors.

If Stearns wants another low-cost solution in the outfield, my hope is that they have Williams in CF and Nimmo in LF from the jump next year. If Stearns deems it too risky to have Williams on the roster, my hope is that he moves Nimmo back to CF and looks to sign/trade for a LF who can hit. Because this parade of weak-hitting CF needs to stop. The emphasis on defense over offense at the position has not worked the past two seasons.