The Science of Roster Construction

How roster balance and flexibility will help the Mets be successful for many years to come

Roster building in any sport takes a lot into consideration. Baseball is especially complex because of the number of players on a team and the multi-tiered system in which young players are developed. Building a team is as much about putting together a group of players who can win a championship as it is about building a locker room where guys can not only tolerate each other, but work cohesively as a unit, and maybe even like each other. It's also about building a team of players that paying fans want to root for. It's about selling merchandise and tickets and making the team profitable. All of these factors and more go into creating a baseball team, and now that the Mets have seemingly ended their free agency, let's take a look at five core elements of a team and where the Mets stack up: long-term contracts, medium-term contracts, short-term contracts, young MLB players, and developing players.

Long term: Long term deals in baseball can be really long, but I define this category as 5 years or longer. The decision around giving out a long-term deal is that the team plans for the player to be a core piece of the team for an entire era and helps give the team an identity. Ideally these are established players who are relatively young when signing and can play through their prime with the team. These are the players that the team should expect to sell a lot of jerseys for and who, when looking back on the success or failures of the team, every fan will remember as the core players. The Mets have these players on long term contracts:

· Edwin Diaz (5 years, through 2026)

· Francisco Lindor (10 years, through 2031)

· Brandon Nimmo (8 years, through 2030)

· Kodai Senga (5 years, through 2027)

· Juan Soto (15 years, through 2040)

Of the names on this list, Lindor, Nimmo, and Soto are easily identifiable as the “stars” of the team, and who we expect the most production from. In a decade, the team will be identifiable by these players, as much as we identify Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and David Wright with the mid-2000’s Mets team. The Mets expect these players to bring fans to the stadium and push a lot of merchandise, helping to offset the costs of signing them.

Medium term: I define medium-term as contracts lasting 3-4 years. I almost lumped these contracts into short-term contracts, but after analyzing the contracts the Mets have, these 3- and 4-year deals have a feel of their own and deserved their own category. Medium-term contracts are ones that might get a coveted player in free-agency, or extend a home-grown player, where the team can offer a higher AAV without making a very long-term commitment for a player who the team believes will have a big impact. These contracts are reserved for players who are elite at their positions but who are not the face of the franchise. Some notable medium-term contracts the Mets have:

· Clay Holmes (3 years, through 2027)

· Sean Manaea (3 years, through 2027)

· Starling Marte (4 years, through 2025)

· Jeff McNeil (4 years, through 2026)

The reason these contracts deserve their own category is that it’s easy to see the contracts of Marte and McNeil having already going sour, as Marte has struggled with injuries and McNeil has struggled with consistency. Both have had moments of excellence, as both made the 2022 all-star game for the Mets, but their contracts now look bloated ($19.5 million for Marte this year, $15.7 million for McNeil). These contracts would have been better as 2 years guaranteed with team options in the 3^rd and 4^th years. The Mets are taking a chance on Holmes and Manaea working out as productive pitchers, and even now the foresight of limiting it to 3 years instead of 4 shows that David Stearns doesn’t like dead weight on the roster. None of these players are seen as the face of the franchise, and you’re unlikely to see too many Holmes jerseys in the stands.

Short term: Maintaining roster flexibility is important in baseball. There's nothing like the feeling of hopelessness that accompanies having long-term dead weight on your roster (i.e. Javier Baez & Anthony Rendon). It can be a big risk and a huge loss financially to have a player who eats a ton of your budget and is unplayable. That's why short-term contracts are an important piece of roster construction. I am defining short-term as 1-2 years. This type of contract is an opportunity to bring players in that can benefit the team this year, but who don't fit the long-term goals in the building of the team.
Notable Mets on short-term deals include:

· Pete Alonso (2 years, through 2026)

· Griffin Canning (1 year, through 2025)

· A.J. Minter (2 years, through 2026)

· Frankie Montas (2 years, through 2026)

· Ryne Stanek (1 year, through 2025)

· Tyrone Taylor (1 year, through 2025)

· Luis Torrens (1 year, through 2025)

· Jesse Winker (1 year, through 2025)

Of the names on this list, one could argue that Alonso is the outlier here. He even stated that his contract was a bridge contract to get him off of the qualifying offer and re-test the market next year. Alonso probably deserves to be in the long-term contract category, were it not for his age. 3-4 years probably is the best he can expect in next year’s free agency market. The rest are players that fans will likely forget about in a few years, unless we win a World Series with them on the team. They are unlikely to have much impact on the identity of the Mets, or to move tickets or merchandise for the team, but play a role in filling gaps in the roster.

Young MLB players: This category is for young players who are no longer prospects and who contribute meaningful playing time to the team. These players haven't reached free agency yet, may be eligible for arbitration, but generally are under team control for small amounts of money. These are important players to have, as the MLB has imposed harsh taxes on teams who spend over $301 million on their rosters.
Notable Mets in this category include:

· Francisco Alvarez (projected free agent in 2029)

· Brett Baty (arbitration eligible in 2027)

· Jose Butto (projected free agent in 2031)

· Tylor Megill (projected free agent in 2028)

· David Peterson (projected free agent in 2027)

· Jose Siri (projected free agent in 2028)

· Mark Vientos (arbitration eligible in 2027)

Most of these players have seen significant playing time and had a positive impact on the Mets roster. Peterson makes the most of the group at just under $5 million. Players like Alvarez and Vientos are largely seen by the fanbase as the stars of the future. If either of them play to their potential (25+ home runs), they will likely help the team sell tickets and merchandise and be central to the identity of the team for many years.

Prospects: These are players that the team is developing for the future. They may play a limited role on the team this year in some capacity, but likely are continuing to develop in the minors with an eye toward replacing outgoing veterans in the years to come. The Mets had notoriously had a sub-par farm system until re-investing in notable additions during the 2023 trade deadline. Notable prospects to look for in 2025 include:

· Luisangel Acuna (made MLB debut in 2024)

· Ryan Clifford (projected MLB debut 2026)

· Drew Gilbert (projected MLB debut 2025)

· Ronny Mauricio (made MLB debut 2023),

· Christian Scott (made MLB debut 2024)

· Brandon Sproat (projected MLB debut 2025)

· Jett Williams (projected MLB debut 2025)

Acuna is the only player on this list who has a chance to make the 26-man roster out of spring training. The rest are either rehabbing injuries or need to spend more time in the minors before debuting at the MLB level. Their development is important to the Mets’ future roster construction, as it creates healthy competition with the veterans on the team and inspires a promising future for the team for years to come.

With all of these factors to consider in building a roster, Stearns is going into 2025 having successfully spread out the team between these categories, creating long-term roster flexibility with a core of exciting players that fans will show up for. The Mets are in a good position to compete for years to come.