Thoughts on Drew Gilbert, Ronny Mauricio, Blade Tidwell and more

David Groveman joins me to have a conversation about the Mets’ farm system.

Brian: The players that the Mets received when they traded the old pitchers at the trading deadline in 2023 have been in the system for nearly a year and a half now. I was not a huge fan of either deal at the time, although I liked the two prospects they received for Justin Verlander. Drew Gilbert has been slowed by injuries, which in my mind leaves Ryan Clifford as the one to watch. At the time of the trade, my comp for Clifford was Lucas Duda, which still works for me. What do you think the future holds for Clifford, Gilbert and Luisangel Acuña?

David: I know your opinions on Acuna and few of them are good. I also know our flighty fan base and how enamored people are with him after his cup of coffee success and, now, his success in the Winter League. I'm much closer to your camp but there is still a glimmer of something there, especially if he has the "True Utility Player" tag on him. Playing second, short stop and center field makes for a pretty valuable bench player and he's shown enough in flashes to make people dream. I would say he has about a 15% chance of being more than a bench player in the big leagues. Gilbert still floats around my Top 10 but his prospect star has dimmed. He's a good enough defender to play center field but isn't a "Plus" defender there, he has power but I don't think it's truly more than 15 HRs per year and he has speed but it's not going to wow you. Gilbert will return to AAA and we'll see if and when the Mets need him but he seems like a 4th outfielder on a good team. Clifford is, in fact, the hottest and highest ranked prospect from those deals and... I can't argue your Duda comp. His defense is and will be better in the outfield because Duda's was a last minute experiment, but he's a first baseman with a lot of power who is incredibly streaky. He does seem capable of hitting 30+ HRs in the majors but it will come with a lot of Ks and a lower batting average (typical of power hitters). I'm going to ask you about two trades the Mets were not part of and see why you think Stearns wasn't in on these. The first is Cody Bellinger, whom the Cubs basically gave away, and the second is Devin Williams who was traded for a package worse than Acuna + Tylor Megill. These are two players whom the Mets could have used in 2025 and it seems that the Mets weren't even in on them. Why do you think we passed?

Brian: For years, I've been frustrated about the Mets' inability to produce backup outfielders so if Gilbert becomes a fourth OFer, that will be a nice change of pace. As for Acuna, I'd probably go low single digits for his chances to be more than a utility player. And it's never mentioned but the potential of Clifford being a decent 1B has to at least be considered before signing Pete Alonso to a multi-year deal. Do you want to pay $25 million or more to Alonso as he devolves into Dave Kingman? Why not pay Clifford minimum wage to do the same thing?

As for Bellinger, guess I'd rather have him at 2/$52.5 million than Alonso at 3/$90 but it's still not a good contract. In his last four years, he has 7.1 fWAR and 4.4 of those came in 2023. I see more years like 2024 and worse in his future. His ability to play the OF is a plus. Still, it seems like money that could be better spent elsewhere.

It would have been terrific to add Williams for that price. It would have been a great addition, with the compounding bonus of addition by subtraction with the two guys you have going to Milwaukee. It's hard to come up with a reason why Stearns wasn't more aggressive here. The only thing to consider is that it's tough to add a closer to a team that already has Edwin Díaz. But with Williams under team control for two years, it would have been better than trying to convince someone like Tanner Scott to come here as a free agent. A missed opportunity, for sure.

If Gilbert is a fourth outfielder, who takes over in center field? Is Jett Williams still the answer there or does he take over at 2B, with Carson Benge the CF of the future? Are either of them ready for Opening Day 2026? Those two are my favorite Mets prospects and I look forward to see them playing in Queens ASAP.

David: At the moment the answer to center field is a combination of Tyrone Taylor and Brandon Nimmo. There is still a chance that Mets go out and get a bonafide center field option who can do more offensively than Taylor but that seems like a longshot given where we are in the proceedings. Looking towards the future you have Williams who remains very tempting but needs to do more than he has after his lost (injury) 2024 season. Benge is a very good prospect and one that looks like he could be moving quickly through the system. Williams should be ready for 2026 for sure, but I'm less sure of what he'll be when it comes to ready. Benge is a longshot because he's almost guaranteed to start down in Brooklyn and only advance to Binghamton by year's end. Speaking of "favorites" I want to give you several of mine and see what your crystal ball says about them.

Jonah Tong - Hard not to love a player who advances through two levels in one season. Tong looks likely to begin the year back in AA but could finish the year in the majors. His numbers have a look of "Ace" quality to them with a high K/9 and a low WHIP. He'll still be 21 for half a season and it's hard not to like that. How high are you on our Canadian phenom?

Jesus Baez - Baez was another pretty big surprise for the Mets in 2024 and in a good way. His injury in July ended a very promising year. Do you think there is enough smoke there to pay attention?

Ronny Mauricio - To me, there is no bigger wild card in the Mets 2025 season than Mauricio. The physically gifted player tacked an insane winter league run onto his cup of coffee success in 2023-24 before getting an ACL injury and losing his whole 2024 season. It's impossible to say who and what he'll be when he's back on the field and even harder to guess where he will play. He's always looked like an outfielder to me but his most significant defensive success was at third. Do you see any impact from Mauricio on the 2025 Mets?

Brian: My guess is that Jose Siri plays more CF this year than Nimmo.

Right now, with any pitcher - not just Tong - it's difficult for me to forecast anyone as an ace before seeing them pitch in Syracuse. For whatever reason, SYR has just chewed up and spit out highly ranked Mets pitchers. Everyone's bullish on Brandon Sproat - well, he had a 7.53 ERA in seven Triple-A starts.

As for Baez - absolutely. I'm sure you recall last June I was saying Baez was a better prospect than Acuna. Regardless, the injury was disappointing but he still put up 316 PA last year, so a whole lot more than either Gilbert or Williams. Unfortunately, it probably means starting 2025 back in Brooklyn. Hopefully he does well enough to earn an early promotion away from that pitcher-friendly place.

An MLB impact from Mauricio is certainly on the table for 2025, although my belief is that he needs at least 200 PA in the minors, first. Michael Conforto gave the Mets a 130 OPS+ in 194 PA in 2015. That was an impact, despite the relatively low PA. It's not too hard to imagine something in that ballpark for Mauricio in 2025, if absolutely everything breaks right.

My last question for you - Despite their troubles in Syracuse, do you still see worthwhile MLB careers from either Dom Hamel or Blade Tidwell?

David: Hamel and Mike Vasil both began the 2024 season as relevant pitching prospects but by July they were barely in the Top 50. By the way, did you hear my anguished tears at the loss of Vasil? Sorry, you didn't, because I didn't care. Hamel is probably ranked in the bottom five of the Top 50 for me. Meanwhile, Tidwell is still in my Top 10. How is that fair? It isn't but we aren't comparing apples to apples. First of all, Tidwell was better than Hamel or Vasil in AAA despite not being very good and second, he didn't begin the year in AAA and has the benefit of having looked good in AA. You also have to consider "Stuff" and Hamel's raw pitches just aren't as impressive as Tidwell's. I hold out hope for Tidwell, Sproat and Scott coming back with relevant success and I really hold out none for Hamel.