Thoughts on how to maximize the total contributions of Mets' position players
One of the first things David Stearns did when taking over the Mets was to move Brandon Nimmo to left field, with the belief that his defense in center field wasn’t good enough. Nimmo had gone from a +4 FRV in 2022 to a 0 FRV in 2023. In 194 innings in CF since the start of 2024, Nimmo has a (-1) FRV. As a fielder, Nimmo may no longer be the asset defensively he was in 2021-2022. Stearns was probably right about his judgment on Nimmo’s defense.
But this isn’t the NFL, with unlimited substitutions between offense and defense. In MLB, you have to play both. So, the calculation can’t be one sided. We have to take in the totality of what the player can do. And right now, it’s a fair question if the total combination of what the players can do in center field and left field – Nimmo’s primary position now – is better with a different configuration than what the Mets are trotting out there now.
The question has arisen because of the complete implosion offensively of Tyrone Taylor. With an OPS+ of 66 in 257 PA, Taylor is borderline unplayable, regardless of how good he is defensively. The Mets have adjusted by giving Jeff McNeil some playing time in CF. The issue is that he’s likely worse defensively than Nimmo. In 113 innings in CF, McNeil has a (-1) FRV.
If McNeil is going to play the outfield, are the Mets better off with him playing CF? In 695.2 innings in left field, Nimmo has a (-2) FRV. With Nimmo playing LF the majority of the time since 2024, McNeil hasn’t logged much time there defensively. Yet from 2020-2023, he had 903 innings in LF and a +5 FRV. It’s very possible that they are a wash defensively in CF, with McNeil being better defensively in LF.
And there’s one other thing that we need to bring into the equation. It’s difficult for me to believe this is possible but is the best thing for the team to play Nimmo in center field and Starling Marte in left? Marte has a .726 OPS and a 110 OPS+ this season, which is better than any of the youngsters the Mets are trying to get playing time in the infield by moving McNeil to center field.
Yet those season-long numbers may not be the best gauge of where Marte is now as a hitter. He started seeing more consistent playing time at the end of May and since June 5, Marte has a .328/.375/.448 line. Now, he’s probably not an .823 OPS true-talent hitter at this point in his career. But is it possible that he’s a .770 OPS hitter going forward? My opinion is that the Mets need to at least consider that possibility and get Marte more playing time in the field.
Marte has just 22 innings in the field this year, so it’s tough to gauge what he might be defensively. He was bad in right field in 2023 and even worse there in 2024. But we don’t know how much his defensive numbers were impacted by his various injury woes. Marte seems healthier right now than he’s been since early 2022. Plus, left field is easier to play – especially in Citi Field – than right field.
There are a bunch of other moving pieces here to consider. Mark Vientos is not as good defensively as either Brett Baty or Ronny Mauricio at third base. Against LHP, Baty has a .473 OPS, Mauricio has a .180 mark and Taylor has a .474 mark. The Mets are giving Taylor starts when a lefty is on the mound and he has reverse-platoon splits. And this isn’t a one-year thing, either. In 2024, Taylor was slightly better against RHP, too.
At this point, it’s impossible to say what’s the best thing for the Mets to do going forward to maximize both the hitting and defense of their position players. What’s clear to me is that McNeil should play every day and that Taylor should get as few starts as possible, with zero being a perfectly acceptable number. He’s in Luisangel Acuna territory, where he should never start but play virtually every day, as a pinch-runner/defensive replacement.
Additionally, Mauricio should start any time a RHP is on the mound.
After that, Carlos Mendoza will have to mix and match. He should probably limit the time Vientos is in the field, mainly to times that a lefty is on the mound for the other team and the Mets are starting a fly ball pitcher. Mendoza should probably get Marte some time in left field and Nimmo some time in center. And he needs to get Baty enough playing time to remain sharp. This is simply not a time where the manager can roll out the same lineup nine times out of 10.
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While this piece has been heavily influenced by defense and playing time, we should absolutely note the offensive tear that Nimmo has been on the past three-plus weeks. In his last 23 games and 95 PA, Nimmo has a .326/.368/.640 line, with 12 XBH. The hot stretch has raised his season-long OPS to .788 and his OPS+ to 124. Earlier, Nimmo was hitting the ball hard and not getting results. Now he’s caught up to his expected numbers. His xSLG is .470, compared to an actual .474 mark. And Nimmo’s xwOBA is .342, compared to an actual wOBA of .340 for the season.
I agree with your conclusions. Taylor’s offense should relegate him to defensive replacement duty, full stop. I would hope that Marte is at least serviceable in LF. That gives them another way to keep Taylor on the bench. As for the infield, I don’t know how much longer they can stick with Vientos. He seems lost this season. He had a few hard hit balls yesterday, right at infielders, so maybe he’ll come around. Meanwhile, Baty and Mauricio should be getting all the starts and ABs against righties. Versus righties, I’d put McNeil and NImmo in the OF (it’s a push to me where they play between LF and CF) and Baty and Mauricio at 2B/3B (also a push.). Versus lefties, I’d put Marte in LF, Nimmo in CF, McNeil at 2B, and either Vientos or Mauricio at 3B. It’s hard to say if Alvy is figuring things out in Syracuse, but he’s hitting HRs. If he’s swinging from his heels but having success in AAA, that could actually be the worst thing for him as he can’t pull that crap in the bigs.
It certainly feels like we are primed for trade deadline acquisitions to help boost this team to the next level. I remember writing during the off-season that Mets fans should be worried about the CF combo of Taylor and Siri and it looks like that was prophetic. Ideally we upgrade there, have Mcneil play every day at 2B and make a decision or two about Vientos, Baty, and Mauricio. Vientos has essentially returned to Earth after last year and he's the same struggling player he's been his whole career. I've not seen much from Mauricio that's impressed me. That leaves the streaky Baty as the default guy. Hopefully our farm system steps up next year, as long as we don't have to sell the farm for a good reliever.