Thoughts on MLB using robo-umps in select Spring Training games

A little while back, the curve became my all-encompassing theory. Essentially, anything “new” that happens or is in the process of happening, has a learning curve attached to it, with people on various points of the curve. Basically, you can be ahead of the curve, on target with the curve or be behind the curve. And just because you were at one point on the curve – that doesn’t mean you’ll be guaranteed to be at the same point on every curve.

Just looking at me, when it came to the impact of performance-enhancing substances, I was behind the curve. Many, many people were railing against them way before me. And to this day, you shouldn’t paint me as a hard-core, anti-PED person. My preference is for a more-nuanced take on the issue. But my eyes are at least open on the subject. My position on the curve is higher than it once was.

There was a time as a young boy where my hope was that the Mets would put artificial turf down at Shea Stadium. That’s because all of the new parks at the time had turf and my fear was that the Mets were going to be left behind. That hope lasted a short while before disappearing. And then when it became more common knowledge how bad it was to play on it, my thoughts became downright hostile towards turf. My views on turf were pretty much on target with the curve.

Which brings us to the automated strike zone. This is an idea that I’ve been aggressively for since the minute it was first broached. Everything about the game revolves around the strike zone and for the game to be as good as it can, it needs to be a uniform, fair zone for everyone. There are numerous strike-zone related things that just kill me, chief among them the idea that veterans should get preferential treatment, that umpires can essentially have their own personal strike zone and, my extreme pet peeve, the only thing that matters is that the calls or consistent. If the first base ump called safe every runner whose foot was in the air but who hadn’t touched the base when the 1B caught the ball – he’d be consistent. He’d also be massively wrong.

It shouldn’t matter if Tom Seaver or Scott Rice is pitching – a ball on the corner should be a strike for both of them. It shouldn’t matter if Francisco Lindor or Harrison Bader is batting – a pitch an inch outside should be a ball for both of them. We’ve made progress on this – and other strike-zone issues. But there are double-digit missed calls in every game, whether random or targeted. And we have the technology to have a much-better – even if not perfect – system in place.

MLB has tested various automated strike zones in the minor leagues for several years now. And there have been complaints as they worked out the inevitable kinks. My favorite was that there was no one to argue with. Really, we should put up with crappy, inconsistent umpires so that there’s someone to kick dirt on during an argument? You want to keep the Angel Hernandez types around so you can argue a blown call, only to get kicked out of the game? There’s no kind way to put this – that’s massively stupid.

My opinion is that once replay was instituted at the MLB level, there was no reason not to have an automated strike zone. It’s one thing if you want to say there should be the human element for umpires, just like there are for players. It’s not a take that appeals to me but at least there was a coherent objection. But to say that replay is okay in some instances but not for balls and strikes falls way, way off the mark for me.

Regardless of how you feel about the automated strike zone, we’re going to see it this year in select Spring Training games. Evan Drellich recently reported on this in The Athletic. Here’s how it will work:

The upcoming spring experiment will employ the “challenge” system, in which human umpires will still make the vast majority of calls themselves. Each team will start a game with two challenges it can issue to an umpire, who will then rely on the automated ball-strike system to review the pitch. A team keeps its challenge if it is successful.

More than 60 percent of spring games will feature the automated strike zone. The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to use ABS 29 times, the most in the league. The Chicago Cubs will have the fewest chances at seven. The average team in the Cactus League will have 21 games featuring the automated zone, with half of its 10 ballparks expected to feature the system. The average Grapefruit League team will play 19 games with an automated zone, with the system available in eight of 13 parks.

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All players in major-league camp have to have their height measured by mid-February so the zone will work properly, and MLB has brought on a third-party company to try to ensure players don’t game the system.

“Two methods will be used to ensure accurate heights are collected,” MLB wrote in the presentation, which was obtained by The Athletic. “A team of independent strength and conditioning personnel will perform manual measurements using standard protocols and equipment. Representatives of the Southwest Research Institute will use biomechanical analysis to confirm the manual measurements and safeguard against potential manipulation.”

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Regardless of count, the shape of the strike zone itself will also be different. Commissioner Rob Manfred has said that the human strike zone tends to look more like an oval, unlike robo-umps whose zones look more rectangular.

ABS calls the upper end of the strike zone at 53.5 percent of a player’s height, and the bottom at 27 percent. By contrast, humans call the upper edge of the zone at 55.6 percent of a player’s height on average and at 24.2 percent at the bottom.

On their dugout iPads, players will be allowed to review pitch locations and how they likely would have been called by the ABS via an application called ProTabs. Though the app will have no video, pitches will update after each at-bat.

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Fan research showed 71 percent of Triple-A fans surveyed viewed a total of four challenges per game or fewer the optimal number. In the league’s testing of both the two- and three-challenge set-ups in the minors, 62 percent of games achieved that.

If testing goes well, robo-umps could be introduced to regular-season big league games as early as the 2026 season.

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It’s a fantastic article that you should read in its entirety if you have a subscription to the site.

Drellich had a chart with how many games each team would play this Spring with the challenge system in place. The Mets will play 22 games with the ABS challenge in play. We got to see this in an exhibition game last year, where once the challenge was made, the pitch was ultimately put up on the scoreboard, complete with strike zone box and where the ball was. It seemed quick in real time. The article noted that the average time per challenge was 17 seconds. That’s higher than you’d like it to be but substantially better than the average MLB replay call, to say nothing of those in the NBA and NFL.

While my preference would be to have all ball-strike calls made by the system, that was probably a pipe dream of mine. What is appealing in this challenge system is that you get to keep making challenges as long as you’re right. It’s so frustrating to have a limit on challenges in other leagues. If the umps/refs keep screwing up – why should you be restricted from further challenges?

It’s always an exciting time for me when baseball games return in Spring Training. And it will be even more intriguing this time with the challenge system involved in most games. Hopefully, this trial run goes smoothly – not a guarantee, by any stretch – and that the clubs are encouraged enough by the results to bring it to the regular season in 2026.

Come join me at the top of the curve with regards to the automated strike zone.