Thoughts on MLB's top free agents in the 2025-26 offseason

This time last year, it seemed reasonable to expect that the Mets were going to be in the Juan Soto sweepstakes and few would have been surprised that they would be in extended negotiations to bring back Pete Alonso and Sean Manaea. But this year? The top free agent isn’t nearly as sexy as Soto, and it seems unlikely the Mets will be involved in the chase. And maybe they’ll be interested/invested in bringing back Alonso and Edwin Diaz – but it feels different this time.

Still, the Mets have some money to spend and holes to fill, especially if Alonso and/or Diaz are elsewhere. So, let’s look at free agency, in a different way than anyone at the site has done to date. Instead of saying, “the Mets need SP so they should get Player X,” let’s look at all of the top free agents and see if a projected contract makes sense to me.

For this exercise, let’s use the top 50 free agent list at The Athletic. Certainly, there are other lists of this type we could use. But the one at The Athletic has two things going for it. First, four people have collaborated on the list, with Mets writer Tim Britton being one of them. And Britton supplies a contract for each person on the list. That will be the one that will be examined, with a yay or a nay based on my opinion of the player being worth that contract or not.

There will be more yays than there are open spots on the Mets – and money available from the Mets, too. This isn’t a list of players the Mets should get. Rather, it’s my opinion if they’ll be worth the contract. There might be three first baseman or six starting pitchers where my opinion is that would be a good free agent deal. That doesn’t mean they all should be signed by the Mets. So, here we go:

Kyle Tucker – 12/$460 – That’s an average of $38.333 million per year. Tucker has been a reliable mid-4s fWAR player, but that doesn’t leave much on the bone with what he’s producing now, much less the back half of the deal. Verdict: No

Bo Bichette – 8/$212 – That’s fewer years with a lower AAV than Tucker. If Bichette can stay healthy thru the life of the deal, it would probably be a good one. But he’s had six IL trips in the last three years and it’s a rare player who gets healthier as they age. And he’s not a great defensive player. Verdict: No

Alex Bregman – 6/$171 – Back on the free agent market after opting out of the final two years of the 3/$120 deal he signed a season ago, it’s definitely a curious decision by Bregman to enter the market again. If he gets the proposed deal, it was probably a smart move for him to opt out. It seems far from certain that he’ll get this and it wouldn’t be a deal that would make sense to me to give a guy who saw his production fall for the third straight year. Verdict: No

Kyle Schwarber – 5/$145 – He seems to be getting better with age. Still, it seems a bit crazy to give him a five-year contract. If this was a shorter deal with a higher AAV, say in the neighborhood of 3/$100, this would have been my first yes. Just can’t go for five years here. Verdict: No

Framber Valdez – 7/$196 – Seven years is a long time for a pitcher who will begin the contract in his age-32 season. If he stays healthy and can produce at his current rate, he’s got a shot to be worth this deal. But betting on a pitcher not declining when he’s 37 and 38 is too risky for my blood. Verdict: No

Dylan Cease – 6/$174 – Comparing simply to Valdez, Cease will start his deal two years younger, with a contract that ends a year earlier. It would have an AAV of $1 million higher. Given the first two points, it’s easy to live with that last one. Cease had an ugly 4.55 ERA last year but with a FIP nearly a full run lower. My preference would be a five-year deal here yet it seems like Cease could still be worth the extra season. Verdict: Yes

Pete Alonso – 5/$140 – It was a great bounce-back season for Alonso in 2025. Yet he’d essentially have to produce at the same rate over five years to be worth this deal. That’s not a wager any team should make. Verdict: No

Cody Bellinger – 7/$182 – This might be the most interesting free agent case there is. How long can Bellinger stay in CF? Can he maintain his same level of hitting in a more neutral park? Is seven years too long for a guy who will start his contract in his age-30 season? How much should 2024’s production scare teams? In two of the past three seasons, Bellinger had a 4.4 and 4.9 fWAR. But in ’24, Bellinger had a 2.1 fWAR, in the same number of games that he played the previous season. My opinion is that it will be close but that this contract will work out for the team. Verdict: Yes

Ranger Suarez – 6/$153 – Last year’s 157.1 IP was a career-high for Suarez. You can say he doesn’t have the mileage on his arm that most starters have. Or you can say he’s guaranteed not to make 30 starts in a year. Perhaps both are true. Yet if he’s able to produce 4.0 fWAR in a season with just 26 starts, he seems likely to be worth a total of 19 fWAR over six years. Verdict: Yes

Tatsuya Imai – 8/$190 – He throws hard and has a variety of pitches. But eight years at SP2 money is a big gamble, even for someone who starts the contract in his age-28 season. Verdict: No

Edwin Diaz – 4/$84 – This values Diaz at 10-plus fWAR over the life of the deal. He’s never been worth that much over any consecutive four-year span in his career. In fact, if you take his best four years, it would essentially be a break-even contract. From a pure dollar/value standpoint, this one is easy. Verdict: No

Michael King – 3/$75 – This is the contract Sean Manaea got after coming off a 2.8 fWAR season. King is coming off a 0.8 fWAR in 2025. He was better than that in the previous two years. Still, this contract says you think he’s going to be better in his age-31-to-33 seasons than he was in the age-28-30 years. It seems an aggressive bet on a pitcher who’s topped 105 innings just once in his career. Verdict: No

Shota Imanaga – 1/$22 – This essentially means they think Imanaga will take the Qualifying Offer. He probably doesn’t sign that deal with another team. But that’s not the rules we’re playing under here. Imanaga had a 4.86 FIP last year. Yeah, it was an injury-shortened season. Still, it’s tough to think he’s going to immediately go back to the guy he was in 2024, from both a quality and quantity point of view. Verdict: No

Josh Naylor – 4/$92 – It’s not outrageous to believe that Naylor could be worth this contract. Still, last year’s 3.1 fWAR was the best mark of his career and it took a .315 BABIP to produce that mark. My preference is for a corner player to have more than a .168 ISO. Verdict: No

Gleyber Torres – 3/$48 – Maybe it’s backlash towards Torres coming up as a hotshot prospect for the Yankees but he’s about the last player on this list that you’d find me choosing to cheer lead. But this seems like a good value for what he should provide over a three-year deal. It will be while holding my nose but … Verdict: Yes

Eugenio Suarez – 3/$69 – He’s been remarkably consistent the past three seasons, at a pace well above what this contract offers. But Suarez’ defense fell off last year and if he stops hitting homers – it will get ugly fast. Maybe he’s Nelson Cruz 2.0 and he’ll hit 30-plus homers until he turns 40. But my preference would be to give him one-year deals at this point. Verdict: No

Munetaka Murakami – 8/$158.5 – Britton wrote that Murakami “might be the biggest risk/reward player available this winter.” The power is intoxicating. The strikeouts are alarming. It’s my belief that the power will win out in the end. Verdict: Yes

Brandon Woodruff – 2/$40 – He was pretty darn good in 12 starts last year. The question is how many starts he’ll be able to make the next two seasons. My opinion is that he’ll get a better deal than this one in real life. But that’s not what we’re concerned with in this piece. Verdict: Yes

Devin Williams – 1/$18 – Earlier this offseason, I was down on Williams. But after more consideration, my view has changed. In his last 19 games, Williams had 18 IP and 34 Ks. In that span, he posted a 0.36 FIP. It seems unlikely he doesn’t get multiple years, unless he simply wants a one-season deal to be a free agent again. It’s not easy for a reliever to post a 2.3 fWAR season, which is what Williams would need to be worth this deal. It seems more likely that he’ll be worth this proposed deal, rather than Diaz being worth his. That’s something, right? Ultimately … Verdict: No

Merrill Kelly – 2/$46 – He needs around 6.0 fWAR over the life of the deal to be worth this contract. That seems like asking a bunch from a guy who’ll be in his age-37 season in 2025. Charlie Morton posted a combined 5.9 fWAR over his age-37 & 38 seasons, so it can be done. But it’s not something that’s appealing to me. Verdict: No

*****

That’s the top 20. From here thru the rest of the list, the only ones that will be listed are ones that seem like a decent bet to me to be worth their proposed contract.

Zac Gallen – 2/$42 – Yeah, last year was not good. But he finished strong – a 3.32 ERA in his last 11 starts, including a 5 ER in 4.1 IP outing in his last game of the season. It’s hard for me to believe that Gallen would get a lower AAV than Kelly.

Jorge Polanco – 2/$35 – Not one of my favorites but seems to have enough power in his game to be worth this deal.

Zach Eflin – 1/$17 – This one comes with a caveat. In 2025, Eflin had season-ending back surgery. Assuming the medicals come back clean, by no means a sure thing, he seems like a decent shot to be worth this one-year deal.

Mike Yastrzemski – 1/$11 – He’s a platoon bat but he hits RHP at a really nice clip. He posted an .809 OPS versus righties last year, which matched his career mark. Should be a nice stop-gap player for a team who needs his skill set.

Zack Littell – 2/$20 – His 4.88 FIP last year is a big concern but he’s pitched 156.1 and 186.2 innings the past two seasons. If he pitches that many the next two years, it will be hard for Littell not to be worth this contract.

Danny Jansen – 1/$8 – It seems like he’s been around forever but 2026 will be his age-31 season. He’s not a full-time player yet it seems like if he gets 100 starts, he’ll easily be worth this deal.