Using salary and Dollar Values to forecast fWAR totals for the highest-paid Mets

When you sum up the fWAR totals of the Mets last year, you get 25.9 from the hitters and 14 from the pitchers. Add that to the replacement total of 47.6 – you get 87.5, which is mighty close to the 89 wins the 2024 Mets recorded. The 87.5 is 98.31% of their actual win totals, while the rounded 88 works out to 98.87% of their total actual wins. And this is hardly a one-year phenomenon. fWAR accounted for 97-98% of team wins in both 2022 and 2023, too.

We see that fWAR does a very good job after the fact in measuring team wins. Now, let’s try to use it in a different way. Instead of looking backwards, let’s try to look forward. fWAR values a win purchased on the free agent market at roughly $8 million. The Mets have 13 players on their roster with a salary of $5 million or more, with 12 of those being players they essentially signed as free agents. Included in the 12 is Francisco Lindor, who was given a contract so he wouldn’t reach free agency. The only one who wasn’t in this boat is Jeff McNeil, who signed an extension before he was as close to free agency as Lindor was.

If a player is paid $16 million, you can say the team is valuing him as a 2-fWAR player. And if he’s paid $24 million, that valuation is a 3-fWAR player. With that as our backdrop, let’s see how many wins the Mets are expecting with their big salaries. Let’s use their actual salaries, taken from Cot’s, rather than their Luxury Tax salaries.

For the sake of argument, let’s assume that 35.5 fWAR is an accurate representation of what these 13 players will give the Mets in 2025. We add that to the replacement total of 47.6 and we have 83.1 wins. Which means that David Peterson, Mark Vientos and the rest of the roster will need to total around seven wins for the Mets to have a 90-win season.

Of course, it’s a big assumption that the Mets will receive that total. Let’s break it down by each player:

Juan Soto – On one hand, it’s ridiculous to assume any player will deliver a 7.7 fWAR season. On the other hand, Soto posted an 8.1 fWAR last year and is entering him prime. It seems like a half-decent bet that Soto will reach this mark. Let’s give it a 60% chance of happening.

Francisco Lindor – He’s topped the expected 4.1 total each of the past three seasons and seven times in his career. Lindor also has seasons with a 4.0 and 3.9 fWAR. As long as he’s healthy, this seems likely to be met. Let’s give it an 85% chance of happening.

Pete Alonso – Here comes the first player where it seems more likely that he won’t reach this level. Alonso has reached this mark just once in the past four seasons and just twice in his career. It will be a great year for the Mets if Alonso is this productive. Let’s give it a 25% chance of happening.

Starling Marte – Yeah, this one’s not going to happen.

Brandon Nimmo – Even in a year that many considered sub-par, Nimmo posted a 2.7 fWAR. The big variable here is health. If Nimmo can play 140 games, he seems a very good bet to reach this level. Let’s give it a 70% chance of happening.

Sean Manaea – Most people would have been bullish about Manaea reaching this total if he didn’t come down with an injury in Spring Training that will have him open the year on the IL. He may miss less than a month. Manaea can still reach this total but we have to knock down his chances, considerable. Let’s give it a 20% chance of happening.

Edwin Diaz – Twice in his career, Diaz has surpassed this mark. He also posted a 2.1 fWAR in 2021 and was on pace to do even better than that in the truncated 2020. It seems like a coin flip so let’s give it a 50% chance.

Frankie Montas – A more-serious injury makes it very unlikely to happen.

Kodai Senga – Health permitting, he seems like a lock to exceed his total. Let’s give it a 60% chance of happening.

Jeff McNeil – Many people are convinced McNeil’s a bum and that somehow the Mets would be better off using a player who posted a .654 OPS in Triple-A last year. That seems terribly misguided to me. In a year where he got off to a horrible start and then suffered a season-ending injury, McNeil posted a 1.3 fWAR in 472 PA. Assuming he gets 100 more PA this year, he seems like a good bet to beat this total. Let’s give it a 70% chance of happening.

Clay Holmes – If Spring Training is any indication, Holmes will easily beat this mark. Of course, there’s a difference between Grapefruit League and MLB. Let’s give it a 60% chance of happening.

A.J. Minter – It’s not easy for a reliever to post a mark this high. Add in the injury concerns and this one doesn’t seem likely to me. Let’s give it a 35% chance of happening.

Jesse Winker – Last year, J.D. Martinez posted a .726 OPS in 495 PA as a DH for the Mets, which was a 0.6 fWAR. Winker had a .765 OPS last season. He seems like a decent bet to exceed Martinez’ production but will he get that much playing time? Let’s give it a 45% chance of happening.

There are certainly enough question marks here. But some will be answered positively. Can the positive answers, combined with excess value from others, allow the Mets to get 35.5 fWAR from this group? None of us have any idea. My opinion is that even if they don’t, they won’t fall terribly short of the mark. Maybe the rest of the roster will have to combine for 10 fWAR rather than 6.9 to reach 90 wins.

Regardless of where you stand on the efficacy of the current roster, we can all agree that it will be nice if the Mets don’t drop their first five games of the year and then go 9-19 in any month of the season, like they did last May.