What You See…
With Matters Regarding Pete Alonso, It Seems Like This Is What We’re Gonna Get
During the Mets360 podcast on July 31st, Brian Joura and I had a discussion about Pete Alonso. Namely, about whether Alonso could get out of his “funk,” and become a productive hitter once again.
My conclusion during that discussion was… what we are seeing with Alonso is what we should expect going forward.
Essentially, what you see is what you get, with Pete.
My question was if Alonso was truly struggling, or was it merely perception?
Believe it or not, Alonso is actually performing above his career numbers in some respects. For 2025, he has a line of .262/.349/.502. Over his career, his line is .250/.341/.513.
Pete Alonso is getting on base more for sure, but where he seems to be deficient as per the norm is his slugging. Total bases. His money maker. Which makes sense on a base level, that where Alonso seems to be struggling is in the extra bases department. But while his hot and cold switch goes back and forth with his ability to hit home runs, Alonso has been driving in runs at a fierce rate, driving in 91 runs thus far. This rate is well ahead of his rookie year in 2019 and keeping pace with his RBI personal best year in 2022.
In lay terms? Alonso isn’t hitting as many home runs this point of the season, and that’s where our perception of his struggles arise.
Alonso could be on pace for a 40 HR season, which after the rollicking start earlier this season might seem weak. But it’s not uncommon to regress towards the mean at this point in his career.
Chicks dig the long ball, as the sayeth goes. When Alonso struggles with hitting them, it sets off a perception of struggle.
Statisticians, however, like to say that hitters regress to the mean when pitchers figure them out. Is Alonso “struggling,” or are pitchers merely “figuring him out.”
Big picture? Peter Morgan Alonso is about to become the New York Mets’ most prolific home run hitter, dethroning a hallowed figure in the team’s history in Darryl Strawberry. Alonso could also just be a decent hitting-for-average who has the ability to hit dozens of bombs a year, with a handle on first base defense. That could be enough for him to ensure a good contract, but it may have to be enough for us too as spectators and fans.
The trouble with Alonso is that you can't take his full-season numbers at face value. He was tremendous the first 36 games but from 5/6 to 7/31 he had a .696 OPS in 310 PA. For nearly 3 months he hit like Brett Baty, not Juan Soto.
He's gotten off to a great start in August. Is that a return to the hitter he was in April? Let's hope so.
What you see is what your getting now but what you see isn't what you get in the future. You have to take account for regression. Alonso is a thumper but not the hitter. Pete is passable on defense. He is an icon for the Mets and because of that he will get a salary better than his stasticly value. Anything for more than 4 years would be foolish if he opts out. $ 30m with a $26m opt out would be better. It is nice to have a thumper in the cleanup spot but don't expect him to be an MVP because he isn't.