When Francisco Alvarez started a game last year, the Mets were 58-27

One of the biggest questions baseball fans and management have to decide is if some level of performance is a fluke, statistical randomness or noise compared to having real meaning. Tylor Megill had a 5.17 ERA in his first 10 games last year. Yet in his last six outings, he posted a 2.32 ERA with a 2.75 FIP. Those six outings happened and we all watched them. But it seems like few are firmly in the camp that there’s any real meaning there. Most seem to be of the opinion that it’s just the latest in a series of starts where Megill has teased us with his potential, only to come crashing back to earth.

With Megill, we can say that 31 IP isn’t enough to outweigh the results of 341.1 IP in his MLB career where he’s posted a 4.56 ERA. But how do we feel when it comes to the presence of Francisco Alvarez in the starting lineup? Let’s look at how the Mets have done when Alvarez has started a game the past two seasons:

2023: 48-55 (.466) – Mets record with another starter: 27-32 (.458)

That’s virtually no difference.

2024: 58-27 (.682) – Mets record with another starter: 31-46 (.403)

That’s a huge difference

It’s probably not a coincidence that the Mets went 17-28 from April 20 – June 9, the time that Alvarez was on the IL with torn ligaments in his thumb. The Mets were forced to play with a catching tandem of Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido. Not much was expected from that duo offensively and they lived down to those expectations, especially Narvaez, who posted an OPS+ of 9 in his tenure with the Mets last year.

But the thing is that those two were not good defensively, either.

Things got better when the club acquired Luis Torrens, who was an improvement both offensively and defensively over the N&N boys. Still, the Mets’ record with Torrens starting was noticeably worse than with Alvarez. The club went 19-20 in games started by Torrens. Alvarez was more productive at the plate last year than Torrens, holding a 12-point OPS+ advantage. But that shouldn’t have made a 195-point difference in winning percentage between the two backstops.

Perhaps the biggest difference last season came when Alvarez caught Jose Quintana. Here’s how Quintana performed with each of the four catchers he threw to last year:

Alvarez – 2.87 ERA, 1.106 WHIP, .641 OPS

Narvaez – 4.61 ERA, 1.207 WHIP, .738 OPS

Nido – 7.47 ERA, 1.468 WHIP, .849 OPS

Torrens – 3.78 ERA, 1.590 WHIP, .797 OPS

Yet if the biggest difference came with Quintana and the Mets don’t re-sign the veteran hurler – does that swing Alvarez’ advantage in games he starts from significant to fluke?

From my POV, it would be great if there was real significance to Alvarez starting a game. The hope is he starts 130 games a year for the Mets for the next decade. But it’s likely to be non-significant. A team’s record should be better when a good player is in the starting lineup.

However, I’ll always be intrigued about the 2011 Mets and journeyman Jason Pridie. The Mets were 77-85 that year but they were 26-19 (.578) when Pridie started. And the percentage was even better when Pridie started in center field, as the Mets were 19-12 (.613) in those games.

Alas, the Mets let Pridie leave as a free agent following the 2011 season and we never got to see if he could carry that performance over with them in 2012. We won’t have that issue with Alvarez, though.