Without Pete Alonso, who will play first base in 2025?

As the offseason has dragged on into late January, it has become more and more clear that Pete Alonso won’t be the Mets starting first baseman in 2025. The two sides are still too far off on money, even though the market for Alonso has not materialized this winter – perhaps not surprising for a 30-year-old coming off of his two worst offensive full seasons seeking a $200 million mega deal.

With the sides seemingly at a stalemate, the rumor mill has been flying of the Mets interest in swinging a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays to acquire superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Based on the report from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon in The Athletic that the Jays are looking for a package that would “exceed the value the San Diego Padres received from the New York Yankees for Soto,” it is probably best to shelve that idea. Guerrero would be a one-year rental, and the upgrade he’d be over Alonso is just not enough to part with four or five players. The calculus changes some if the Mets think that Guerrero is the piece that would put them over the top for a World Series, but if not, they’re better served laying out the extra money and signing Alonso.

The Boston Red Sox have been reportedly shopping around Triston Casas, a 25-year-old lefty-hitting first baseman who has posted a similar OPS+ to Alonso (Casas 126; Alonso 123) over the past two seasons. However, he missed four months last season due to a rib cartilage tear, so there is some risk in acquiring him, and of course he also won’t come cheap.

Trades aside, the Mets can pivot to a few different options should they look to fill first base with an external signing. There are still a decent number of first basemen out there, with names like Anthony Rizzo, Justin Turner and Connor Joe highlighting some of the veteran options, and several replacement-level veterans like Rowdy Tellez, Joey Gallo or Ty France. Not exactly inspiring, although a reunion with the 40-year-old Turner is probably the best option of the bunch. At that point they might be better served reuniting with Mark Canha (who played 50 games at first last year) and putting him on first full-time.

The other thing they could do is go out and sign a third baseman. Yesterday, Ryan Johnson wrote about Brett Baty and hopes for 2025 and beyond at third base. In there he mentioned the likelihood of Mark Vientos sliding across the diamond to play first base, with Baty playing third in an Alonso-less team. While that is not a completely unpalatable scenario, it is hard to imagine a team that wants to compete for a World Series in 2025 going into the year with such a huge question mark at a key offensive position.

The Mets could get splashy and sign Alex Bregman, who fits the Alonso mold of being on the wrong side of 30 and is coming off of his two worst offensive seasons. That said, over the last three years Bregman has hit .260/.349/.449 and averaged 4.5 rWAR per season and won the 2024 AL Gold Glove Award at third base. Bregman has already turned down a six-year, $156 million offer from the Astros, and like Alonso won’t come cheap. But a Bregman-Vientos corner infield is better than a Vientos-Alonso corner infield.

There are also less expensive free agents available, like the oft-injured Yoan Moncada, Jon Berti, or JD Davis, none of whom has substantially fewer question marks than Baty.

Looking internally if the Mets do nothing, like Ryan wrote yesterday, the Mets could open third base up to a competition between Baty, Luisangel Acuna, and Ronny Mauricio in spring training, although Mauricio’s injury return timeline could throw a wrench into that idea. That said, there is also the x-factor of Ryan Clifford, who is at least part of the reason why the Mets are hesitant to go long-term for Alonso in the first place. He played 98 games in Double-A last year and hit .231/.359/.456 with Binghamton, but the consensus is that he is not going to be ready for the big leagues in 2025. However, if he comes into spring looking good and performs well, it might be worth giving him a shot at first base.

None of these options – except for signing Bregman – are really that great for the Mets. It goes to show how tough a position they are in when it comes to their corner infield. This is a team that while having established itself as one of the best in the National League, still has significant holes to fill if they want to close the gap between themselves and the Dodgers.