Mets have a lot of starter quantity but the overall staff is sketchy for a team with World Series aspirations. Now, if they sign Alonso, a lefty DH, and add a quality arm like Robertson to the pen...rake and let the starters shake out...then, ok. If not, I may still think Stevie spent all his singles on the headline dancer.
I think it's quite possible that this year's starting five out-performs the one they started last year with, one that had Tylor Megill and Adrian Houser.
I like Stearns' practice of limiting pitcher contracts of less than 3 years. They almost always are injured and then you have an expensive name on a long-term deal rehabbing from TJ surgery for 2 seasons or retired with a bum shoulder. Just look at the last 2 seasons of deGrom (40 IP) and Scherzer (88 IP) after they left the Mets. Senga, who he signed to a longer deal, is another example: 5 IP last year.
Pitchers are usually hurt given the arm strain, so you might as well buy cheap innings eaters and supplement them with depth for spot starts (Butto, etc) when the injury bug strikes.
It's easier to do that when you have horses at the front of the rotation like Stearns had in MIL. Hopefully Manaea, Peterson and Senga can do a reasonable facsimile of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff that Stearns had with the Brewers.
I also believe Manaea should get the ball on game one. I believe Sasaki should/will be a Met, but if not, I would like to see Butto starting. It’s on record by the radio guys that he doesn’t bounce back very well and on his second outing his command abandons him.
I see Butto like Vientos. He did nothing wrong and people are being put in front of him. I hope the kid rocks it in spring training and they have to give him the job! The Angels guy has done nothing to get the gig. Megill is ahead of that guy!
Butto is the anti-Megill, the current Joey Lucchesi. He's the guy who doesn't catch a break and is bypassed for inferior players.
My guess is that he goes to Spring Training in the mix for SP6/bullpen role. The one thing he does have going for him is that FanGraphs lists him as being out of options.
That feels true to me, about not catching a break. One thing we know is that the team will need 8+ starters through the year and maybe he gets stretched out. I have no issue with him starting, but just noticed the list of people that most certainly are ahead of him, excluding Canning. Butto will not displace Manaea, Senga, Montas, Peterson, or Holmes - whom the Mets committed to starter conversion.
I dont see the Vientos comparison. Vientos took the position over and played a good part of the season as the “penciled in” 3B, right through the post season. He’s shown he’s the guy now. And if Baty were to replace him, we already know Baty will be at best comparable to Vientos defensively and will be worse offensively. Butto had nowhere near the same credentials as a starter, and the people in front of him for at least the first 5 are superior pitchers. I’d put Butto ahead of Megill, but there will be a fight to the order of the 6+ list.
Montas had 30 starts last year and a 4.84 ERA. My hope is he's better than that in 2025. But I also feel fairly confident that if Butto got 30 starts, his ERA would be a sub-4.50 and I'm not sure I feel confident that Montas will beat that. Or Holmes, if I'm being honest over 30 starts.
Very informative Brian. Would like to see the Mets snag Castillo from the Mariners, or at least try. In my opinion, they need one more top, or close to the top, rotation piece. Not feeling secure with essentially no well established ace to the staff and hoping Manaea and Peterson repeat their 2024 performance. Too many hopes and not enough solid history to go on. And one more strong HR hitting bat leaves us near the top of the division. Can’t pay Soto $51 million a year and not surround him with the supporting pieces to get back to the series and win.
I think the 2025 starting pitchers should be better than the 2024 starting pitchers. Manaea and Peterson should be similar with their bWAR which was a cumulative 5.9. Senga wiii replace Quintana's 2.5 bWAR. Senga had a 4.5 bWAR in 2023. Holmes is expected to be be similar to Severino and his 1.6 bWAR. Montras 0.6 bWAR is replacing Megill 0.5 bWAR. Megill will be the Syr 6th starter shuffling back between Syracuse, Butto was the in relief and Blackburn will be in long relief. They need another relief man that is reliable.
Mets have a lot of starter quantity but the overall staff is sketchy for a team with World Series aspirations. Now, if they sign Alonso, a lefty DH, and add a quality arm like Robertson to the pen...rake and let the starters shake out...then, ok. If not, I may still think Stevie spent all his singles on the headline dancer.
I think it's quite possible that this year's starting five out-performs the one they started last year with, one that had Tylor Megill and Adrian Houser.
My guess is Manaea gets the ball game 1.
I like Stearns' practice of limiting pitcher contracts of less than 3 years. They almost always are injured and then you have an expensive name on a long-term deal rehabbing from TJ surgery for 2 seasons or retired with a bum shoulder. Just look at the last 2 seasons of deGrom (40 IP) and Scherzer (88 IP) after they left the Mets. Senga, who he signed to a longer deal, is another example: 5 IP last year.
Pitchers are usually hurt given the arm strain, so you might as well buy cheap innings eaters and supplement them with depth for spot starts (Butto, etc) when the injury bug strikes.
It's easier to do that when you have horses at the front of the rotation like Stearns had in MIL. Hopefully Manaea, Peterson and Senga can do a reasonable facsimile of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff that Stearns had with the Brewers.
I also believe Manaea should get the ball on game one. I believe Sasaki should/will be a Met, but if not, I would like to see Butto starting. It’s on record by the radio guys that he doesn’t bounce back very well and on his second outing his command abandons him.
I dont see room for Butto as a starter unless things go lateral
Manaea, Senga, Peterson, Holmes, guy from angels all ahead of Butto. Could he be the next Lugo though?
And Montas,
So: Manaea, Senga, Montas, Peterson, Holmes, Angels guy
I see Butto like Vientos. He did nothing wrong and people are being put in front of him. I hope the kid rocks it in spring training and they have to give him the job! The Angels guy has done nothing to get the gig. Megill is ahead of that guy!
Butto is the anti-Megill, the current Joey Lucchesi. He's the guy who doesn't catch a break and is bypassed for inferior players.
My guess is that he goes to Spring Training in the mix for SP6/bullpen role. The one thing he does have going for him is that FanGraphs lists him as being out of options.
FWIW, the Angels guy is Griffin Canning.
That feels true to me, about not catching a break. One thing we know is that the team will need 8+ starters through the year and maybe he gets stretched out. I have no issue with him starting, but just noticed the list of people that most certainly are ahead of him, excluding Canning. Butto will not displace Manaea, Senga, Montas, Peterson, or Holmes - whom the Mets committed to starter conversion.
I dont see the Vientos comparison. Vientos took the position over and played a good part of the season as the “penciled in” 3B, right through the post season. He’s shown he’s the guy now. And if Baty were to replace him, we already know Baty will be at best comparable to Vientos defensively and will be worse offensively. Butto had nowhere near the same credentials as a starter, and the people in front of him for at least the first 5 are superior pitchers. I’d put Butto ahead of Megill, but there will be a fight to the order of the 6+ list.
Montas had 30 starts last year and a 4.84 ERA. My hope is he's better than that in 2025. But I also feel fairly confident that if Butto got 30 starts, his ERA would be a sub-4.50 and I'm not sure I feel confident that Montas will beat that. Or Holmes, if I'm being honest over 30 starts.
Very informative Brian. Would like to see the Mets snag Castillo from the Mariners, or at least try. In my opinion, they need one more top, or close to the top, rotation piece. Not feeling secure with essentially no well established ace to the staff and hoping Manaea and Peterson repeat their 2024 performance. Too many hopes and not enough solid history to go on. And one more strong HR hitting bat leaves us near the top of the division. Can’t pay Soto $51 million a year and not surround him with the supporting pieces to get back to the series and win.
Thanks Steven!
My expectation is that there are no more SP additions but there will be a bat, whether one to fill in at an infield corner or DH.
I think the 2025 starting pitchers should be better than the 2024 starting pitchers. Manaea and Peterson should be similar with their bWAR which was a cumulative 5.9. Senga wiii replace Quintana's 2.5 bWAR. Senga had a 4.5 bWAR in 2023. Holmes is expected to be be similar to Severino and his 1.6 bWAR. Montras 0.6 bWAR is replacing Megill 0.5 bWAR. Megill will be the Syr 6th starter shuffling back between Syracuse, Butto was the in relief and Blackburn will be in long relief. They need another relief man that is reliable.