Baseball Reference projections leave the Mets out of the 2025 playoffs
There are many who are agonizing over the Mets roster that has been assembled thus far and whether it can compete within the difficult NL East. We know the strengths of the Phillies and Braves, but the Nationals are moving forward, and the Marlins, well, they are kind of trying.
It would be nice to have outstanding seasons by our players, but often steady and sure wins the long 162 game race. We talk about how if they just played to the average on the back of their baseball cards that the team would be quite strong. The same could be said for any team in the majors, but as we know there are so many factors that make that less likely to occur.
We often refer back to Baseball Reference for player statistics but from what they issued concerning likely Mets starting position players in 2025, this does not look like a team that will score enough runs. Below is a list of likely starters based on where the team currently sits, and the Baseball Reference essentially looks for regression from Mets hitters. The actual performance from 2024 is in parenthesis after projection stats.
Pos Player 2025 Baseball Reference Projections (versus 2024 stats)
SS Francisco Lindor .262 BA (.273), .800 OPS (.844), 26 HR (33) , 84 RBI (91)
LF Brandon Nimmo .250 BA (.224), .765 OPS .727), 19 HR (23), 68 RBI (90)
RF Juan Soto .273 BA (.288), .920 OPS (.989), 31 HR (41), 86 RBI (109)
1B Mark Vientos .251 BA (.266), .765 OPS .837), 21 HR (27), 60 RBI (71)
C Francisco Alvarez .237 BA (.237), .739 OPS (.710), 18 HR (11), 57 RBI (47)
DH Jesse Winker .235 BA (.243), .705 OPS (.683), 12 HR (3), 52 RBI (13)
DH Startling Marte .259 BA (.269), .710 OPS (.715), 10 HR (7), 44 RBI (40)
2b Jeff McNeil .266 BA (.238), .722 OPS (.692), 10 HR (12), 48 RBI (44)
CF Tyrone Taylor .240 BA (.248), .715 OPS (.701), 13 HR (7), 47 RBI (35)
3B Brett Baty .229 BA (229), .654 OPS (.633), 9 HR (4), 32 RBI (16)
In fairness to the overall Baseball Reference statistics, Alvarez missed a lot of playing time, Vientos didn’t have a full season up on the big club, and no one knows how the Baty experiment will work out at third base. But to have Soto projected to hit 25% less home runs and RBI makes no sense. To have Lindor and Nimmo regress also makes no sense even if they are both a year older. To have Alvarez only hit seen more home runs having only played 100 games last year is shows little faith in his ability to hit like he did in 2023 and also appears short sighted.
What the Mets are missing with the current configuration are the long balls from two players who are not on the team.
Pete Alonso .240 BA, .788 OPS, 34 HR, 88 RBI
JD Martinez .235 BA, .725 OPS, 16 HR, 69 RBI
Yes, they both had their hitting issues, and yes, some of the replacement players will make up some of the power gap created by their departures. However, replacing 50 home runs and 157 RBI with this roster appears quite daunting.
While fingers are crossed that I am way off base, it is starting to look like an 85 win season and a seat at home for the playoffs. If that happens, the blame goes to Cohen and Stearns for not punting Alonso sooner and signing some full-time replacement bats, and for continuing to count on too many players to bounce back to an early time in their career and have a productive 2025.
No one cares if the Mets can’t turn their organization in to the Dodgers of the East, but we do care about being a perennial contender and wining some championships in our lifetime!
Who would you rather have: Vientos and Marte or Soto and Baty in 3B and RF. Who would you rather have : a platoon of Marte/Winker or Martinez at DH? Who would you rather have: Senga instead of Severino? Montas instead of Megill? Minter instead of Stanek? Every move that Stearns made is an improvement. Sure he could have done more but he has to do it in real time and not in the rear view mirror like the fans do. They were a playoff team last year and they improved in the offseason.
I am one of the fans of the opinion that the Mets are one big bat short. I am also of the opinion that Lindor will benefit from hitting in front of Soto (either directly or two slots up). I forecast Francisco to have a big year in 2025.
With the players listed, I tend to agree that everything has to go right for them to get to October baseball. It can happen. I will take the over on Lindor, Soto, and Vientos. I would be extremely happy if they get 22 HR and 96 RBI out of the Winker/Marte platoon.
I think McNeil has more batting average in him than .266. I don't care about his homers - 10 or 12 is fine if he is hitting .290+ (and hopefully .310+)
I am cautiously optimistic that Baty will have enough chance to put it all together this year, although I'd give odds of less than 50-50 that he will not be in the Mets organization by opening day.
And the centerfielders: play defense and run the bases well when they get on them, hit a few homers here and there. If they get good defense, the numbers for Taylor above (and some contribution from Siri) will suffice.
There are two injury risks in this cast that could really clobber this team's chances. If Nimmo or Alvarez goes down for any significant period, it will not look good, especially Alvarez. I don't trust Torrens as an everyday catcher, and I'm not sure what plan B or C is.