Steven, thanks for writing thos article. For the most part, my gut tells me that this article is correct.
Just look at this part of the lineup.
Winker
Taylor
McNeil
Marte
Baty
That is five out of nine players in the lineup up can be really weak. That part of the lineup looks more like a lineup from the Pirates, Marlins or A's.
Thats why its important to get another bat. It doesnt even have to be a Bregman or Vlad Jr deal. (too much to give up for Vlad for a one year deal) Another rumor on thr table has been Torkelson. Yes both Casas and Torkelson did not play well last year, but they are both very young and have an opportunity to bounce back. If either bounced back, that deal could be a steal and give us a low cost first baseman for several years. Both of them would be more of a Stearns type move than Bregman.
Perhaps it's splitting hairs but these are the Marcel projections hosted on Baseball-Reference, not B-R projections. The Marcel projections are supposed to be the minimum acceptable forecast - so easy a monkey could do it. Marcel, the monkey from "Friends."
Is there a projected standings page or is this just your opinion from looking at the numbers? And it's not just the Mets - Marcel uses regression for the numbers for all players. Bryce Harper last year had a .285/.373/.525 line and Marcel has him for .278/.366/.495 line. Marcell Ozuna had a .302/.378/.546 line last year and Marcel has him for .269/.338/.498 in 2025.
If that is the case I stand corrected. I took that projection info off of that site for players mentioned. I feel better with this being a minimum acceptable forecast but now I feel the data is not as relevant. Anyone can predict a downturn but it’s the upturn that takes guts to stand behind. The opinions voiced were my own and not from a projected standing page. There are so many factors to a team’s success, not the least of which is how all the part-time players perform as well as those last few bull pen arms. I’m cautiously looking for an upturn in performance from our core players.
The Marcels projection system was originally developed by Tom Tango as the "minimum level of competence that you should expect from any forecaster." Let's let him describe it:
Actually, it is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey. It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor.
I didn't think the Mets will miss the playoffs. It's important to remember that we have 162 games to play, and at some point during the season the trade deadline will happen and if need be we'll be active in the trade market. Many of the guys on this roster are all star players, including Soto, Lindor, McNeil, & Marte, and our young guys will have a chance to shine this year under the leadership of those guys. We will be ok. Nobody believed in this team last year, including me, but we made a heck of a run. This is largely the same team, and they have it in them to succeed.
I think we were correct to not believe in this team last year. I don't think we underestimated them. The Mets had a fantastically fortunate combination of choking rivals and a miraculous improvement of starting pitchers. Nobody could have reasonably predicted it and nobody should expect it to happen again with the present roster.
I am one of the fans of the opinion that the Mets are one big bat short. I am also of the opinion that Lindor will benefit from hitting in front of Soto (either directly or two slots up). I forecast Francisco to have a big year in 2025.
With the players listed, I tend to agree that everything has to go right for them to get to October baseball. It can happen. I will take the over on Lindor, Soto, and Vientos. I would be extremely happy if they get 22 HR and 96 RBI out of the Winker/Marte platoon.
I think McNeil has more batting average in him than .266. I don't care about his homers - 10 or 12 is fine if he is hitting .290+ (and hopefully .310+)
I am cautiously optimistic that Baty will have enough chance to put it all together this year, although I'd give odds of less than 50-50 that he will not be in the Mets organization by opening day.
And the centerfielders: play defense and run the bases well when they get on them, hit a few homers here and there. If they get good defense, the numbers for Taylor above (and some contribution from Siri) will suffice.
There are two injury risks in this cast that could really clobber this team's chances. If Nimmo or Alvarez goes down for any significant period, it will not look good, especially Alvarez. I don't trust Torrens as an everyday catcher, and I'm not sure what plan B or C is.
Who would you rather have: Vientos and Marte or Soto and Baty in 3B and RF. Who would you rather have : a platoon of Marte/Winker or Martinez at DH? Who would you rather have: Senga instead of Severino? Montas instead of Megill? Minter instead of Stanek? Every move that Stearns made is an improvement. Sure he could have done more but he has to do it in real time and not in the rear view mirror like the fans do. They were a playoff team last year and they improved in the offseason.
You are correct. But as I watch the Dodgers sign and pay good money for Tanner Scott and now reportedly Kirby Yates, while the Mets offseason moves were improvements, the Dodgers continue to separate themselves from the pack with an increased chance to repeat. Hate to always have to wait until the trade deadline for improvements. Seems signing Alonso might be back on the table and that would settle their unsettled infield situation and make it a stronger offseason.
On paper, it is hard to disagree that Soto makes the team better than Alonso. But he is really the only add. Senga is not a Stearns add. Montas vs. Megill - who knows. Megill has been useful. Stanek was a damn good pitcher for 13 of his 15 appearances (the clunkers being his first one arriving after the trade and another one a couple weeks later back in Seattle where he was traded from against his old club). I assume they did their homework and Minter is healthy and he is a lefty, so net plus probably.
My beef now is in the line-up construction. Vientos has to come up big or Soto will be challenging the single season walk record. Arguably, the line-up had more length last year, unless you think Vientos can do everything Alonso did. They put together a pretty good 1-4 last year every day, this year 4 is Vientos. Can he gain the stature of Pete as a power hitter that pitchers are afraid of? Maybe, maybe not.
Steven, thanks for writing thos article. For the most part, my gut tells me that this article is correct.
Just look at this part of the lineup.
Winker
Taylor
McNeil
Marte
Baty
That is five out of nine players in the lineup up can be really weak. That part of the lineup looks more like a lineup from the Pirates, Marlins or A's.
Thats why its important to get another bat. It doesnt even have to be a Bregman or Vlad Jr deal. (too much to give up for Vlad for a one year deal) Another rumor on thr table has been Torkelson. Yes both Casas and Torkelson did not play well last year, but they are both very young and have an opportunity to bounce back. If either bounced back, that deal could be a steal and give us a low cost first baseman for several years. Both of them would be more of a Stearns type move than Bregman.
Thanks Mike. I do not believe that this team is better than last year’s squad, even with the great Juan Soto playing right field.
Perhaps it's splitting hairs but these are the Marcel projections hosted on Baseball-Reference, not B-R projections. The Marcel projections are supposed to be the minimum acceptable forecast - so easy a monkey could do it. Marcel, the monkey from "Friends."
Is there a projected standings page or is this just your opinion from looking at the numbers? And it's not just the Mets - Marcel uses regression for the numbers for all players. Bryce Harper last year had a .285/.373/.525 line and Marcel has him for .278/.366/.495 line. Marcell Ozuna had a .302/.378/.546 line last year and Marcel has him for .269/.338/.498 in 2025.
If that is the case I stand corrected. I took that projection info off of that site for players mentioned. I feel better with this being a minimum acceptable forecast but now I feel the data is not as relevant. Anyone can predict a downturn but it’s the upturn that takes guts to stand behind. The opinions voiced were my own and not from a projected standing page. There are so many factors to a team’s success, not the least of which is how all the part-time players perform as well as those last few bull pen arms. I’m cautiously looking for an upturn in performance from our core players.
The Marcels projection system was originally developed by Tom Tango as the "minimum level of competence that you should expect from any forecaster." Let's let him describe it:
Actually, it is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey. It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/marcels.shtml
I didn't think the Mets will miss the playoffs. It's important to remember that we have 162 games to play, and at some point during the season the trade deadline will happen and if need be we'll be active in the trade market. Many of the guys on this roster are all star players, including Soto, Lindor, McNeil, & Marte, and our young guys will have a chance to shine this year under the leadership of those guys. We will be ok. Nobody believed in this team last year, including me, but we made a heck of a run. This is largely the same team, and they have it in them to succeed.
I think we were correct to not believe in this team last year. I don't think we underestimated them. The Mets had a fantastically fortunate combination of choking rivals and a miraculous improvement of starting pitchers. Nobody could have reasonably predicted it and nobody should expect it to happen again with the present roster.
I am one of the fans of the opinion that the Mets are one big bat short. I am also of the opinion that Lindor will benefit from hitting in front of Soto (either directly or two slots up). I forecast Francisco to have a big year in 2025.
With the players listed, I tend to agree that everything has to go right for them to get to October baseball. It can happen. I will take the over on Lindor, Soto, and Vientos. I would be extremely happy if they get 22 HR and 96 RBI out of the Winker/Marte platoon.
I think McNeil has more batting average in him than .266. I don't care about his homers - 10 or 12 is fine if he is hitting .290+ (and hopefully .310+)
I am cautiously optimistic that Baty will have enough chance to put it all together this year, although I'd give odds of less than 50-50 that he will not be in the Mets organization by opening day.
And the centerfielders: play defense and run the bases well when they get on them, hit a few homers here and there. If they get good defense, the numbers for Taylor above (and some contribution from Siri) will suffice.
There are two injury risks in this cast that could really clobber this team's chances. If Nimmo or Alvarez goes down for any significant period, it will not look good, especially Alvarez. I don't trust Torrens as an everyday catcher, and I'm not sure what plan B or C is.
Who would you rather have: Vientos and Marte or Soto and Baty in 3B and RF. Who would you rather have : a platoon of Marte/Winker or Martinez at DH? Who would you rather have: Senga instead of Severino? Montas instead of Megill? Minter instead of Stanek? Every move that Stearns made is an improvement. Sure he could have done more but he has to do it in real time and not in the rear view mirror like the fans do. They were a playoff team last year and they improved in the offseason.
You are correct. But as I watch the Dodgers sign and pay good money for Tanner Scott and now reportedly Kirby Yates, while the Mets offseason moves were improvements, the Dodgers continue to separate themselves from the pack with an increased chance to repeat. Hate to always have to wait until the trade deadline for improvements. Seems signing Alonso might be back on the table and that would settle their unsettled infield situation and make it a stronger offseason.
On paper, it is hard to disagree that Soto makes the team better than Alonso. But he is really the only add. Senga is not a Stearns add. Montas vs. Megill - who knows. Megill has been useful. Stanek was a damn good pitcher for 13 of his 15 appearances (the clunkers being his first one arriving after the trade and another one a couple weeks later back in Seattle where he was traded from against his old club). I assume they did their homework and Minter is healthy and he is a lefty, so net plus probably.
My beef now is in the line-up construction. Vientos has to come up big or Soto will be challenging the single season walk record. Arguably, the line-up had more length last year, unless you think Vientos can do everything Alonso did. They put together a pretty good 1-4 last year every day, this year 4 is Vientos. Can he gain the stature of Pete as a power hitter that pitchers are afraid of? Maybe, maybe not.