Checking in on a couple of guys on the Syracuse Mets
Let’s look at how two 23 year olds are performing for Triple-A Syracuse this season. Before we get to their numbers, let’s take a second to talk about how the Syracuse Mets are performing as a team offensively. They’re 14th in the 20-team International League with a .731 OPS. And they’re 19th with a .286 BABIP. It hasn’t been just a super offensive environment in Syracuse this year, although at least some of that has to be attributed to not having good hitters.
Player A: .300/.362/.350 with a .364 BABIP
Player B: .195/.283/.512 with a .200 BABIP
Player A has a BABIP 78 points above team average yet an OPS 19 points beneath what the team has produced. Player B has a BABIP 86 points below team average yet an OPS 64 points above what the team has produced. Player A has two more PA for Syracuse than Player B.
If we’re being honest with ourselves, Player A’s production just isn’t very impressive. While the BABIP gods are smiling on him, it’s almost all singles. What happens when the balls find gloves and the BABIP levels off?
The real question is if we should be happy with what Player B has done. The hits aren’t falling in but what hits do come tend to be of the extra-base variety. Yet is a 63% XBH rate a good or a bad thing? How could that be a bad thing? Well, is it a “hot streak” of sorts, one where the player is just taking advantage of mistakes but not able to hit when the pitcher doesn’t throw a meatball? What happens if he goes to the majors and the mistakes are half of what they were in Triple-A?
By now, you’ve probably figured out that Player A is Luisangel Acuna and Player B is Francisco Alvarez.
There’s no reason to believe that Acuna wouldn’t have the same type of results as he had previously if he returned to the majors. And it’s entirely possible the same thing is true for Alvarez, too. However, it’s among the possibilities that Alvarez isn’t swinging from the heels and has a better approach at the plate than what he displayed with the Mets when he was sent down. It’s possible that his process is good, with the results just not being there yet.
Obviously, the Mets have a lot more information than those of us just gazing at stat lines. Still, those of us looking at the results see Luis Torrens with a .442 OPS since Alvarez last played in the majors. For the season, Torrens has a 77 OPS+. However much he disappointed with his results, Alvarez had a 90 OPS+ in the majors.
In the last podcast, Steven Shrager opined that the main reason Alvarez was sent down was because of his hitting. Sometimes you have to take a step backwards in order to take two steps forward. Maybe that’s the case here with Alvarez.
Which leaves us wondering – How much longer will the Mets keep Alvarez in Syracuse? However much we may wish otherwise, Torrens isn’t an everyday catcher. Yes, he does a terrific job shutting down the running game. Yet you don’t want to play guys on a regular basis whose hitting falls under the Galvis Line. In 1,111 PA in the majors, Torrens has an 81 OPS+ - meaning the 77 OPS+ he has in 2025 is right about what we should expect.
If the Mets want to keep Alvarez in the minors thru the MLB All-Star break, that would be acceptable, even if my preference would be to call him up later today. Anything more than that seems like a punishment, like cutting off your nose to spite your face. Sure, we want Alvarez hitting to all fields and having an AVG above the Mendoza Line.
Yet it seems less important to worry about Alvarez and the BABIP gods in Syracuse, compared to seeing Torrens being exposed with more playing time in Queens.
The Mets optioned Alvarez on June 22, meaning the 15 days he needed to spend in the minors before being eligible for a recall are up before the Mets play again. He could be in the starting lineup Tuesday. Are the Mets convinced that Alvarez did whatever they wanted him to do in Syracuse and he’s ready for a return? We’ll soon find out.
As for Acuna – it’s nice that the hits are falling in but something’s got to change. We’ve heard that he has power that he hasn’t shown in games. He either needs to learn to tap into that power ASAP or he needs to embrace being a speed guy, maximize his walks and learn to be a great bunter. While it’s not my favorite type of player, a guy who can post a .370 OBP and steal 50+ bases is an asset.
Brett Butler didn’t make the majors until he was 24 and didn’t become a regular until he was 26. His power was almost non-existent. But with an 11.8 BB% and the ability to bunt for a hit, Butler had a .377 lifetime OBP and played until he was 40, drawing MVP support in six different seasons. If Acuna can’t translate power into his game, becoming the 21st Century Butler would be a great outcome.
Let’s not forget how tawdry Alvy’s defense was. Bad throws, wrong throws, lazy swipes at breaking balls in the dirt. The staff’s ERA was almost a full run worse with Alvarez behind the dish than Torrens. He had developed bad habits on offense and defense and let’s hope his exodus, however short or long it is, gets his head on straight. Or as George Kennedy once said to Paul Newman in Cool Hand Luke, he’s “gotta get his mind right.”
Also from Cool Hand Luke “what we have here is a failure to communicate. If two of the players in the seventh and eighth hole were hitting, I would have no issue living with Torrens and his weak hitting. But the Mets really can’t afford to be without Alvarez’s bad if he has started hitting again, and I am happy to see the long ball down in Syracuse. That’s what he needs to do on the Mets and we know he has the ability to do so. There is no downside to keeping him down on the farm until after the All-Star break, but if Torrens continues to produce next to nothing at the plate then Alvarez needs to come up sooner.
I am still shocked that the coaches can’t do a better job of fixing these hitters and perhaps they need a new approach. The first five batters in the order really don’t but the next four do. To me, this is their failure to communicate, and to look at hours of videotape, and to work with these hitters to bring them back to where they should be is their job. That should be something they do with all of the hitters on regular basis soon when they see them falling into a bad habit. They need to stop them and work on correcting it.
I also have no issue, breaking the long jam of under performing prospects who are on the Mets roster, and including some in a trade for a slid player if not a star player.