Checking in on the Mets players in Keith Law’s top 50 free agents list
Yesterday, The Athletic’s Keith Law released his top 50 free agents column, which included six Mets. Here’s how Law described the list:
This is my ranking of the top 50 free agents on the market, given what we know now and what seems most likely to happen in the next week or so. I ranked them according to how much I might commit to each of them if I were a GM with a need for that player and no particular payroll constraints — not necessarily what they will get, but what I think they’re likely to be worth, considering their likely future production, playing time, and growth or regression over the life of such a contract.
12. Sean Manaea
15. Pete Alonso
23. Luis Severino
32. Jose Quintana
45. Jose Iglesias
49. Jesse Winker
Here’s a line or two from Law on each, followed by my thoughts:
Manaea – “His situation reminds me of Charlie Morton’s 2016-17 offseason, when the 34-year-old Morton had made just four starts before a knee injury ended his season, but he was a completely different pitcher in those four starts. The Astros bet on the change in stuff, giving him two years and $14 million, and he threw over 300 innings with a 3.36 ERA and generated over 5 WAR.”
Development-wise, Manaea would have been in 2024 where Morton had been in 2017 – making the change – in Manaea’s case adding the sweeper – that showed great results in a handful of starts in the previous season. Morton was still active last year at age 40. Manaea will be in his age-33 season in 2025.
Alonso – “Slow position players who are poor defenders and rely on power for most of their value tend to age more poorly than other categories of position players, and Alonso might be the ne plus ultra of such players, even though he’ll only be 30 next season. He’s a 2-3 win player as is and might be half that in five years, so while he’d be great to sign on a short-term deal, even for $20-25 million, I think any longer deal is going to end up paying him for past production rather than future.”
This pretty much is where I stand with regards to Alonso, which is why my max deal would be four years. And it would only reach that long because of a desire to keep a fan favorite in Queens. My hope is that either there’s no market for Alonso and he comes back on a one-year prove-it deal or that someone offers him so many years and so many dollars that David Stearns has no problem letting him leave.
Severino – “He still has issues with left-handed batters, allowing 16 homers to them (versus seven to righties), and his slider, once his best pitch, has lost a lot of its bite — it has the same velocity but doesn’t have anywhere near the same break in either dimension as it once did. I’m more worried about his durability — given his history and a delivery that still doesn’t use his lower half very well — than his stuff, although I can see concerns there as well.”
My opinion was that the Severino signing was going to work out poorly for the Mets. It turned out to be a solid deal. But the fact remains he dominated the Marlins and Nationals and was below-average against the rest of the league. Severino was a good story in 2024 but it’s time to turn the page and move on to someone else in the rotation.
Quintana – “He should get one-year deals from here on out, probably in the $8-10 million range for now to balance out the innings upside with the injury risk, even though he’s probably a 1-1.5 WAR pitcher if he pitches a full season.”
If Quintana was amenable to a 1/$10 deal, Stearns should bring him back for 2025.
Iglesias – “Iglesias had the half-season of his life, and kept rolling enough in the postseason that I think someone will try to sign him to play every day, even though we have over 4,000 PA here to tell us that he’s not close to that kind of hitter.”
He was an even better story than Severino and if he’s content in a 250-PA role, it would be great to see him return to the Mets in 2025. But no one would blame him if he took an offer elsewhere to be a starter – and get paid like one – especially after not getting a shot at the majors in 2023. If that happens, Brett Baty can take his role.
Winker – “He slugged .500 or better against righties every year from 2017-21, and his peak exit velocities have come down about 5 mph since then, so I’m not sure the power is coming back any time soon. The on-base skills are real, and he can be a useful platoon DH or maybe a left fielder if you can live with the lack of range.”
It was fun to have Winker on the Mets for part of last year, instead of watching him torment the club. A reunion wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world yet it seems to me that it’s just not a great fit. Seems destined to get a deal to be a starter on a second-division club. Much like with Iglesias, if he’s content for a 250-PA role, it would be nice to see him back in Queens.
*****
Not that it was a surprise given the seasons they turned in but neither Harrison Bader nor J.D. Martinez made the list. My hope is that neither makes it back to the Mets next year, unless it’s Martinez as a hitting coach somewhere in the system.
I can agree with most of the analysis but I’m still firmly in the resign Alonso corner. Four to five years at $25 million per. It likely will not be enough but it’s a decent good faith offer-perhaps a home team discount offer, that Boras will likely have him pass on. There are only a handful of teams who appear ready to make a strong showing toward a championship, so Pete should think that out before just chasing the $30-50 million more someone will throw on the table. How much is enough when the real goal is getting a ring? What are the championship prospects of the Pirates, Astros, Giants, Mariners all rumored to be hot on his trail. I can see him throwing the Padres over the top but none of the others. And all the talk about the decline he will have toward the end of the contract when he is in his ancient mid 30’s does not scare me off. How can everyone talk about Juan Soto and a 10-12 year contract and not also consider that this 26 year old should be starting his decline mid way through that contract - or do “generational talents” get a pass on the aging process. And at 30, in what seems like the peak of his career, until next season of course, how many years before Shohei Ohtani starts slowing down and showing he’s on the wrong side of 30?
The Dodgers spent a mint but got their WS ring and there is no reason they cannot get the elusive repeat talent with a little retooling. What if they sign Alonso and then he alternates with Freeman between 1B and DH. For that matter, the Dodgers probably still have a few dollars left to also sign Soto. Mets were two games away from the WS with a rag tag bunch of players, not the star studded ones of the teams they passed to almost get there.
Let the off-season deals start, and not the ones where Stearns continues to pick up reclamation projects with some limited potential. Time to make a first strike splash.
I think that pretty much nails it. There’s a lot of special love for Pete because of the HR that ate Milwaukee. I think thats an aweful lot of love for a guy that *probably* has peaked. I also think that he gets a bad rap for his defense, and look, I get it. But I think he is one of the best bag guys in the bigs. For me, the number of bad throws he hoovers up does not get enough credit. We have a lot of wayward throwing to 1B and he catches long hops, short hops, medium hops. He stretches like a ballerina. And his foot placement around the bag for the incoming throw angle is tops. Sure hes crappy throwing, and he plays to the right far more than is healthy, but those are small relative to the bag coverage. I think he ends up staying on something a little like the Jared Weaver deal in Anaheim some time back.
I like where Metsense is on Manaea at 3/63 for a 21 AAV. Im mixed on Sev. One way to land him would be to make the QO which would almost certainly run off others. hes a 1 yr guy. I bring back Winker. There’s a major vibe with him and Lindor and I’d rather he be for us than against us. cheap.
I know thats a typo Metsense, but SP51 seems about right for Q!
Looking ahead, I keep feeling torn between the opportunity of Soto, and maybe getting a guy like Santander to play RF leaving Marte to be DH.