Manaea: 3/$63m or a little more if the market dictates. If things play out similar then I would want Jack Flaherty instead. Better yet, both of them.
Alonso: with a 2.1 fWAR and trending downward . Vientos can play 1B. Bregman (4.8 fWAR), Chris Walker (3.0 fWAR) without a QO, would be improvement. If Alonso can be reasonable, 5/$125m, which I feel is an overpay, then yes the Mets could him sign because of public relations. I don't think Stearns would do that though. Cohen Maybe.
Severino: only as a fall back. The Mets need an upgrade in this rotation spot.
Quintana: 1/$12m as the SP51
Iglesias: 1/$3m as a utility infielder because Mauricio and Williams were hurt. Acuna isn't ready.
Winker: 1/$2.5m as a platoon for Marte. I would rather upgrade right field instead of a platoon though.
I think that pretty much nails it. There’s a lot of special love for Pete because of the HR that ate Milwaukee. I think thats an aweful lot of love for a guy that *probably* has peaked. I also think that he gets a bad rap for his defense, and look, I get it. But I think he is one of the best bag guys in the bigs. For me, the number of bad throws he hoovers up does not get enough credit. We have a lot of wayward throwing to 1B and he catches long hops, short hops, medium hops. He stretches like a ballerina. And his foot placement around the bag for the incoming throw angle is tops. Sure hes crappy throwing, and he plays to the right far more than is healthy, but those are small relative to the bag coverage. I think he ends up staying on something a little like the Jared Weaver deal in Anaheim some time back.
I like where Metsense is on Manaea at 3/63 for a 21 AAV. Im mixed on Sev. One way to land him would be to make the QO which would almost certainly run off others. hes a 1 yr guy. I bring back Winker. There’s a major vibe with him and Lindor and I’d rather he be for us than against us. cheap.
I know thats a typo Metsense, but SP51 seems about right for Q!
Looking ahead, I keep feeling torn between the opportunity of Soto, and maybe getting a guy like Santander to play RF leaving Marte to be DH.
There's no doubt that Alonso does an excellent job receiving throws.
But not one of the advanced fielding systems thinks he's good overall. Here's how they rate him:
UZR - 0.4
dWAR - (-1.1)
DRS - (-3)
FRV - (-6)
My guess is that Manaea gets more than that in free agency.
I'm very curious to see if the Mets offer Severino the QO. I think it's a gamble worth taking but it wouldn't surprise me if Stearns feels differently. If offered, Severino should accept it but it's easy to imagine him thinking he can get a multi-year deal elsewhere.
Santander would be like re-upping with Alonso without the romance of him being a homegrown player. I'd value him as a 2-WAR player (around $16 million) but he's going to get more than that.
I can agree with most of the analysis but I’m still firmly in the resign Alonso corner. Four to five years at $25 million per. It likely will not be enough but it’s a decent good faith offer-perhaps a home team discount offer, that Boras will likely have him pass on. There are only a handful of teams who appear ready to make a strong showing toward a championship, so Pete should think that out before just chasing the $30-50 million more someone will throw on the table. How much is enough when the real goal is getting a ring? What are the championship prospects of the Pirates, Astros, Giants, Mariners all rumored to be hot on his trail. I can see him throwing the Padres over the top but none of the others. And all the talk about the decline he will have toward the end of the contract when he is in his ancient mid 30’s does not scare me off. How can everyone talk about Juan Soto and a 10-12 year contract and not also consider that this 26 year old should be starting his decline mid way through that contract - or do “generational talents” get a pass on the aging process. And at 30, in what seems like the peak of his career, until next season of course, how many years before Shohei Ohtani starts slowing down and showing he’s on the wrong side of 30?
The Dodgers spent a mint but got their WS ring and there is no reason they cannot get the elusive repeat talent with a little retooling. What if they sign Alonso and then he alternates with Freeman between 1B and DH. For that matter, the Dodgers probably still have a few dollars left to also sign Soto. Mets were two games away from the WS with a rag tag bunch of players, not the star studded ones of the teams they passed to almost get there.
Let the off-season deals start, and not the ones where Stearns continues to pick up reclamation projects with some limited potential. Time to make a first strike splash.
Im struggling to figure out “firmly resign Alonso” and going with a 125M$ max contract. Those two dont comport. I think you need to be 30/6 for 180 total.
Cohen needs to spend a lot of $ if he wants to be a perennial threat and the Dodgers east.
Manaea: 3/$63m or a little more if the market dictates. If things play out similar then I would want Jack Flaherty instead. Better yet, both of them.
Alonso: with a 2.1 fWAR and trending downward . Vientos can play 1B. Bregman (4.8 fWAR), Chris Walker (3.0 fWAR) without a QO, would be improvement. If Alonso can be reasonable, 5/$125m, which I feel is an overpay, then yes the Mets could him sign because of public relations. I don't think Stearns would do that though. Cohen Maybe.
Severino: only as a fall back. The Mets need an upgrade in this rotation spot.
Quintana: 1/$12m as the SP51
Iglesias: 1/$3m as a utility infielder because Mauricio and Williams were hurt. Acuna isn't ready.
Winker: 1/$2.5m as a platoon for Marte. I would rather upgrade right field instead of a platoon though.
I think that pretty much nails it. There’s a lot of special love for Pete because of the HR that ate Milwaukee. I think thats an aweful lot of love for a guy that *probably* has peaked. I also think that he gets a bad rap for his defense, and look, I get it. But I think he is one of the best bag guys in the bigs. For me, the number of bad throws he hoovers up does not get enough credit. We have a lot of wayward throwing to 1B and he catches long hops, short hops, medium hops. He stretches like a ballerina. And his foot placement around the bag for the incoming throw angle is tops. Sure hes crappy throwing, and he plays to the right far more than is healthy, but those are small relative to the bag coverage. I think he ends up staying on something a little like the Jared Weaver deal in Anaheim some time back.
I like where Metsense is on Manaea at 3/63 for a 21 AAV. Im mixed on Sev. One way to land him would be to make the QO which would almost certainly run off others. hes a 1 yr guy. I bring back Winker. There’s a major vibe with him and Lindor and I’d rather he be for us than against us. cheap.
I know thats a typo Metsense, but SP51 seems about right for Q!
Looking ahead, I keep feeling torn between the opportunity of Soto, and maybe getting a guy like Santander to play RF leaving Marte to be DH.
There's no doubt that Alonso does an excellent job receiving throws.
But not one of the advanced fielding systems thinks he's good overall. Here's how they rate him:
UZR - 0.4
dWAR - (-1.1)
DRS - (-3)
FRV - (-6)
My guess is that Manaea gets more than that in free agency.
I'm very curious to see if the Mets offer Severino the QO. I think it's a gamble worth taking but it wouldn't surprise me if Stearns feels differently. If offered, Severino should accept it but it's easy to imagine him thinking he can get a multi-year deal elsewhere.
Santander would be like re-upping with Alonso without the romance of him being a homegrown player. I'd value him as a 2-WAR player (around $16 million) but he's going to get more than that.
I can agree with most of the analysis but I’m still firmly in the resign Alonso corner. Four to five years at $25 million per. It likely will not be enough but it’s a decent good faith offer-perhaps a home team discount offer, that Boras will likely have him pass on. There are only a handful of teams who appear ready to make a strong showing toward a championship, so Pete should think that out before just chasing the $30-50 million more someone will throw on the table. How much is enough when the real goal is getting a ring? What are the championship prospects of the Pirates, Astros, Giants, Mariners all rumored to be hot on his trail. I can see him throwing the Padres over the top but none of the others. And all the talk about the decline he will have toward the end of the contract when he is in his ancient mid 30’s does not scare me off. How can everyone talk about Juan Soto and a 10-12 year contract and not also consider that this 26 year old should be starting his decline mid way through that contract - or do “generational talents” get a pass on the aging process. And at 30, in what seems like the peak of his career, until next season of course, how many years before Shohei Ohtani starts slowing down and showing he’s on the wrong side of 30?
The Dodgers spent a mint but got their WS ring and there is no reason they cannot get the elusive repeat talent with a little retooling. What if they sign Alonso and then he alternates with Freeman between 1B and DH. For that matter, the Dodgers probably still have a few dollars left to also sign Soto. Mets were two games away from the WS with a rag tag bunch of players, not the star studded ones of the teams they passed to almost get there.
Let the off-season deals start, and not the ones where Stearns continues to pick up reclamation projects with some limited potential. Time to make a first strike splash.
Im struggling to figure out “firmly resign Alonso” and going with a 125M$ max contract. Those two dont comport. I think you need to be 30/6 for 180 total.
Cohen needs to spend a lot of $ if he wants to be a perennial threat and the Dodgers east.