At this point, given how well they did last year, I need to give credit to David Stearns for putting together a rotation that hopefully will exceed my concerns and the same for the pen. It is always better in my mind to have an ace at the top of the rotation and perhaps I will feel better once I see how Peterson and Senga perform in their first starts. If Senga had not been injured last year, then I would’ve considered him an ace but it is hard to feel assured since we have no idea which pitcher he will be this year. Getting six or seven innings from pitchers will really separate the teams this year and if Manaea and Montas come back healthy then their overall staff will just that much better.
I'm a stuck record on this one and I'll repeat it where it is stuck - five inning starts are a bad thing if it takes 4 additional pitchers to get through the next 4 innings.
I wonder what would have happened if one or two of those games in Houston had gotten tied up and gone 12 innings.
There were 2,429 games played in MLB in 2024. How many do you think went 12 innings? Do you think there were 50? I don't believe there were that many. But let's say there was. That's like 2% of the games. Is that something worth worrying about?
Found this story on August 21 - "Pinch hitter Lane Thomas delivered a go-ahead double to spark a six-run 12th inning, and the Cleveland Guardians outlasted the New York Yankees 9-5 on Tuesday night in the longest major league game this season."
I looked on Baseball Reference at just the Mets and it appears that they played 16 extra innings games last year. 11 went 10 innings and 5 went 11 innings.
We never know what's going to happen. All we can do is play the odds. And the odds say that games that go 10 or more innings don't happen very often.
There were 216 extra-inning games last year out of 2,429, which is less than 9% of the time. I can't tell you how many games ended with the road team losing, pitching fewer than nine innings. But I'd bet my house it was more than 9%. If you're going to worry about the game going more than 9 innings, that absolutely has to be weighted against games that go fewer than 9 innings.
Last year the Mets played 16 extra-inning games and lost 38 road games. Now, not all road losses were 8 IP. But it's in the ballpark of being twice as likely to have an 8-inning road loss than it is to have an extra-inning game anywhere. And whaddya know - they had two or their first three games require only 8 IP.
For 2024, the average innings pitch for a starter was just under 5.1 innings. Stearns is is optimistic when he's says seven innings for starters when he should be setting up his pitching staff for 5.1 innings. Therefore, the bullpen should have two or three accomplished multi-middle inning relievers so that the bullpen doesn't get burn out. Butto, Kranick, Garrett, Brazoban and Blackburn should fills this role and Mendoza should use in that role. Five one inning relievers and three multi-middle inning relievers would be an ideal mix for the bullpen.
At this point, given how well they did last year, I need to give credit to David Stearns for putting together a rotation that hopefully will exceed my concerns and the same for the pen. It is always better in my mind to have an ace at the top of the rotation and perhaps I will feel better once I see how Peterson and Senga perform in their first starts. If Senga had not been injured last year, then I would’ve considered him an ace but it is hard to feel assured since we have no idea which pitcher he will be this year. Getting six or seven innings from pitchers will really separate the teams this year and if Manaea and Montas come back healthy then their overall staff will just that much better.
I'm a stuck record on this one and I'll repeat it where it is stuck - five inning starts are a bad thing if it takes 4 additional pitchers to get through the next 4 innings.
I wonder what would have happened if one or two of those games in Houston had gotten tied up and gone 12 innings.
There were 2,429 games played in MLB in 2024. How many do you think went 12 innings? Do you think there were 50? I don't believe there were that many. But let's say there was. That's like 2% of the games. Is that something worth worrying about?
Found this story on August 21 - "Pinch hitter Lane Thomas delivered a go-ahead double to spark a six-run 12th inning, and the Cleveland Guardians outlasted the New York Yankees 9-5 on Tuesday night in the longest major league game this season."
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/40935322/guardians-outlast-yankees-12-innings-2024-longest-game
Forget 50 - there may not have been five.
I looked on Baseball Reference at just the Mets and it appears that they played 16 extra innings games last year. 11 went 10 innings and 5 went 11 innings.
Thanks for these numbers. Of course, they need to be combined with road games the Mets lost, ones they only had to pitch 8 innings.
There has already been one 12 inning game this year, but that is not my point. It could be 11 .. whatever. . .
We never know what's going to happen. All we can do is play the odds. And the odds say that games that go 10 or more innings don't happen very often.
There were 216 extra-inning games last year out of 2,429, which is less than 9% of the time. I can't tell you how many games ended with the road team losing, pitching fewer than nine innings. But I'd bet my house it was more than 9%. If you're going to worry about the game going more than 9 innings, that absolutely has to be weighted against games that go fewer than 9 innings.
Last year the Mets played 16 extra-inning games and lost 38 road games. Now, not all road losses were 8 IP. But it's in the ballpark of being twice as likely to have an 8-inning road loss than it is to have an extra-inning game anywhere. And whaddya know - they had two or their first three games require only 8 IP.
For 2024, the average innings pitch for a starter was just under 5.1 innings. Stearns is is optimistic when he's says seven innings for starters when he should be setting up his pitching staff for 5.1 innings. Therefore, the bullpen should have two or three accomplished multi-middle inning relievers so that the bullpen doesn't get burn out. Butto, Kranick, Garrett, Brazoban and Blackburn should fills this role and Mendoza should use in that role. Five one inning relievers and three multi-middle inning relievers would be an ideal mix for the bullpen.