Edwin Diaz turns it around, surprising BABIP results for Alonso and McNeil, solicitations for a nickname
The Mets acquired Edwin Diaz on the strength of his outstanding 2018 season with the Mariners, when he had 57 saves and a 3.5 fWAR. They re-signed him after his great 2022, when he had a 17.13 K/9 and a 3.0 fWAR. But the rest of Diaz’ career in the majors has been nowhere near as good as those two years. Maybe 2020 could have approached those two other seasons if it hadn’t been truncated due to Covid. But he was replacement-level in 2019 and not much better than that in 2017 and 2024.
This year didn’t start off great for Diaz, as he allowed five earned runs in his first six appearances and had a 7.94 ERA, a 1.765 WHIP and a .905 OPS against. However, since then has been a different story for the Mets’ closer. The results improved immediately, if not the fans’ comfort level with him entering the game. Saturday, he looked electric, retiring the Yankees in order with a one-run lead. He had two strikeouts, including one of Aaron Judge, the current front-runner for MVP.
In his last 12 games, Diaz has a 0.73 ERA, a 0.730 WHIP and he’s limited opposing batters to a .420 OPS. He also has 19 strikeouts in this span for a 13.9 K/9. The walks are higher than you’d like but Diaz compensates for that by being very stingy with his hits allowed. Carlos Mendoza has been very careful with his usage of Diaz, only once all season having pitched him three times in four days. It was right after that stretch that he turned to Ryne Stanek to close games, with Stanek twice blowing ninth-inning leads in three days, broken up by a Diaz save in the middle.
Diaz has been successful in all 10 of his save opportunities so far and also has a 1-0 record. Could 2025 shape up as a season to stand along with his great performances in 2018 and 2022? It’s possible and if so, it will be great timing for Diaz. The contract he signed after 2022 was a five-year deal. However, after the third year, he can opt out of the final two seasons. This is that third season. If last year was when the opt-out clause triggered, he would have declined it. But it might be a different story this time around. If so, that will force the Mets to ask if they want to sink top-of-the-market money for a closer who is sometimes electric and sometimes run-of-the-mill.
HOW SHOULD THE HITS FALL IN? – If you’ve been paying attention, you know that the average MLB BABIP since 2021 has been in the low .290s, compared to a rate near .300 before Covid. But what’s normal for the league is not necessarily normal for the individual. Pete Alonso entered this season with a .262 BABIP, while Jeff McNeil entered with a .312 mark. But both Alonso and McNeil are utilizing different approaches this year. Alonso has a much greater emphasis on his plate discipline, while McNeil is focusing more on hitting the ball hard, rather than being content to flick it to wherever he sees an opening.
And with these new approaches, Alonso has a .358 BABIP, while McNeil checks in with a .225 mark. Obviously, we’re dealing with small samples here, even more so with McNeil, who opened the year on the IL and has 146 fewer PA than Alonso. Ordinarily, we’d expect Alonso to have something like his career .262 BABIP moving forward, with McNeil having closer to his .312 lifetime mark. But do their lifetime marks in BABIP mean anything right now?
Perhaps it would be best to consider them both league-average in the category for the rest of the year. That may seem harsh for Alonso. Yet we have to consider that it’s going to be harder for Alonso to keep up his approach than it will be for McNeil. In his last 10 games, Alonso’s batting .175 with 2 BB and 18 Ks in 43 PA. That 41.9 K% isn’t screaming great plate discipline. As for McNeil, his xBA is 34 points better than his actual AVG, so it’s likely that he’s due some better luck on his batted balls.
A RELIEVER IN NEED OF A NICKNAME – We don’t have as many nicknames today, either in baseball or as a society. And that’s okay, as not everyone needs a nickname. But if you’ve got an odd last name and you’re performing much better than expected, perhaps you should have one. That brings us to Huascar Brazoban. After making the Opening Day roster because of injuries to three pitchers, Brazoban has been terrific, while performing in just about every role in the pen. He’s been a long man, an opener, a setup reliever and he’s even been asked to close games. It’s hard to imagine him not being on the club, even when the injured pitchers return.
But his name doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue. In the Game Chatters we’ve called him Braz and the Bra-man but neither of them feels like a winner. The New York Jets once had a player name Carl Barzilauskas and his nickname was Barzo. Perhaps Brazo works better than Braz and can be Brazoban’s nickname going forward. Here’s hoping Brazo keeps throwing strikes and getting results.
WHAT’S THE MINIMUM ACCEPTABLE LEVEL OF PRODUCTION? – Last year, Brett Baty had a .633 OPS and an 82 OPS+ after 171 PA and was sent to the minors. Absolutely no one complained when this decision was made. It was made a bit easier, with Mark Vientos ready to take over as the starting third baseman. Baty was replaced on the roster by Jose Iglesias, who offered additional coverage at third base and ended up playing parts of 36 games at the hot corner.
If we look at the 2025 Mets, Tyrone Taylor has a .645 OPS and an 84 OPS+. But Taylor has been performing better after a lousy start and there’s no one ready to take over as a starter in center field. Starling Marte has a .604 OPS and a 74 OPS+ - but in just 86 PA. Maybe he deserves more playing time to turn things around. Or maybe he’s as useful as a female appendage on a bull and should be cut. And then there’s the guy with a .640 OPS and an 85 OPS+ despite a .337 BABIP. He only has 121 PA but if things don’t improve over the next 50 PA, people will need to look in the mirror and ask why it was a slam dunk to demote Baty in 2024 and not this guy in 2025.
THE MARCH TOWARDS 35 – Last year, the Mets used 35 pitchers, along with two additional position players who took the mound. In the preseason, my hope was that they could use 10 fewer pitchers this year, although any number in the 20s would be acceptable. And the Mets got off to a great start, being one of the last teams to make a transaction. Yet they’ve been making up for lost time here recently, with the Mets now up to 23 pitchers used. We still have the three injured pitchers yet to return. Many believe Brandon Sproat will get a shot at some point. The club just traded for Jose Castillo, who should get a chance to pitch any day. They also re-signed Brooks Raley, currently injured but expected back in the second half of the year. Raley was great when healthy, so he’s likely to get a shot, too. We may not see much difference between pitchers used in 2024 and 2025, which feels weird given how rotten the pitching was in the first half of last season.
Diaz appears to be back to his good self and the Mets certainly need that given how many outs the bullpen must get basically every game. I like that he is using his fast ball which can’t be that easy to hit at close to 100 miles an hour and then mixing it in with the slider, and holding off on using a slider when everybody knows it’s not going to be a strike.
It’s a long season so it will be interesting to see how well Alonzo can keep up hitting and if McNeil can keep contributing. I have no issue playing McNeil in centerfield to give Taylor a day off, but with the way Taylor plays in the field, it’s hard to give him a day off.
I think in your article Bryan you almost suggested that Marte get more at bats. If I did not read that incorrectly, I think we need an intervention, especially knowing how you feel about that player.
It would just be dandy to take the series today from the Yankees and will be home in time to watch it, which makes me even happier.
Fair enough about the speed and defense. He can stay for those two things, as long as he doesn't get more than a start or two per month.