Nearly everyone wants the Mets to bring back Sean Manaea, who they signed last year to a one-year deal with a player option, one which he’ll officially decline as soon as he’s able.
HI Brian, Great job getting this whole ship in a new direction phase!
Ive been moving my thinking about Manaea in the past couple months to being more receptive to a 3 year deal. I could see something like 3/66 for Manaea, but Id be hesitant to exceed that because as time wears on I see him more as a #3 starter. He loved the Mets and may give a bit of a discount. I love the new arm slot and I think that could be easier, ie more natural, for less injuries (complete speculation). Great guy, great Met. I think we could be looking at SP1 (Burns?), SP2 (Fried?), Manaea, Peterson, Senga, Butto and so forth with hopes to get some innings for up and comers.
One thing to keep in mind with regards to Manaea and the new arm slot is that he copied Chris Sale, who hasn't exactly been healthy through the years. While all pitchers are different, I'd be hesitant to declare that the new arm slot was a HR from a health POV.
What I’d like to see the Mets do is adopt the Braves process of signing young players to team friendly contracts. This would apply to Vientos and Alvarez and potentially to Peterson. Lock them up on 7-8 year deals that saves money and it gives them another bite at the apple at the end of the contract. Easy to say they could have given Manaea a longer deal with some extra cash but who knew he’d pitch so well? I’d have also gone for the team option but that was not what made the deal get done. I’d go three years at $63 as that is at least at the qualifying offer rate. And yes, the team was full of #3 or worse starters but if you sign a few top line pitchers and the rotation starts with Senga, Corbin Burnes or Jack Flaherty or Max Fried, then the back end becomes very strong when you slot in a Manaea, Severino or Peterson - not to mention Q if he is affordable.
It didn't make sense in the last season or two for the Mets to offer these types of deals if they were targeting this year to get under the Luxury Tax threshold that invoked a draft-pick penalty. Why pay Francisco Alvarez an 8-digit contract when you could have him on your payroll for minimum wage?
But this could be on the table for late in the offseason, depending on how much money has been spent.
The Mets have Peterson under control for two more years. It would be curious if the Mets took this path what kind of deal either side would find worthwhile. Peterson's 121 IP last year were a career-high and he just turned 29 in early September. Would a 4/$50 deal make sense for both sides?
The Mets needs a SP2. Last year didn’t sign a qualifying offer player because their minors couldn't take a hit with the luxury tax draft penalties. Manaea would be a good signing if the same strategy applies. Heck, he would be a good signing anyway. Jack Flaherty ,a non QO player, would be a better because he had a better fWAR and ERA and is younger with probably with a similar price point.
If Stearns abandoned this strategy, which I think he is, then Corbin Burnes would be my primary target as a SP2.
I like Manaea and hope they can pull off a three year deal in the $60 million plus range. He had a strong season and is a perfect #3 or #4 behind Senga, Burnes and Flaherty. But Flaherty already said he wants to stay in LA and who would blame him. He will certainly be rewarded with the team with the very deep pockets. So that leaves the Mets looking for another strong pitcher who I hope is not named Blake Snell. Snell must have his head examined at age 31 opting out on a $30 million plus multi year deal having managed to start just 20 games last year. And Garrett Cole opted out as well having started just17 games and walking away from four more years and $144 million coming his way. I’d pass on this 34 year old as well. I’d try for Max Fried just to further hinder the Braves season. Then fill in with Peterson and whoever of Severino or Quintana they can get at a reasonable price.
HI Brian, Great job getting this whole ship in a new direction phase!
Ive been moving my thinking about Manaea in the past couple months to being more receptive to a 3 year deal. I could see something like 3/66 for Manaea, but Id be hesitant to exceed that because as time wears on I see him more as a #3 starter. He loved the Mets and may give a bit of a discount. I love the new arm slot and I think that could be easier, ie more natural, for less injuries (complete speculation). Great guy, great Met. I think we could be looking at SP1 (Burns?), SP2 (Fried?), Manaea, Peterson, Senga, Butto and so forth with hopes to get some innings for up and comers.
Thanks Chris!
One thing to keep in mind with regards to Manaea and the new arm slot is that he copied Chris Sale, who hasn't exactly been healthy through the years. While all pitchers are different, I'd be hesitant to declare that the new arm slot was a HR from a health POV.
fair enough on the arm slot!
What I’d like to see the Mets do is adopt the Braves process of signing young players to team friendly contracts. This would apply to Vientos and Alvarez and potentially to Peterson. Lock them up on 7-8 year deals that saves money and it gives them another bite at the apple at the end of the contract. Easy to say they could have given Manaea a longer deal with some extra cash but who knew he’d pitch so well? I’d have also gone for the team option but that was not what made the deal get done. I’d go three years at $63 as that is at least at the qualifying offer rate. And yes, the team was full of #3 or worse starters but if you sign a few top line pitchers and the rotation starts with Senga, Corbin Burnes or Jack Flaherty or Max Fried, then the back end becomes very strong when you slot in a Manaea, Severino or Peterson - not to mention Q if he is affordable.
It didn't make sense in the last season or two for the Mets to offer these types of deals if they were targeting this year to get under the Luxury Tax threshold that invoked a draft-pick penalty. Why pay Francisco Alvarez an 8-digit contract when you could have him on your payroll for minimum wage?
But this could be on the table for late in the offseason, depending on how much money has been spent.
The Mets have Peterson under control for two more years. It would be curious if the Mets took this path what kind of deal either side would find worthwhile. Peterson's 121 IP last year were a career-high and he just turned 29 in early September. Would a 4/$50 deal make sense for both sides?
The Mets needs a SP2. Last year didn’t sign a qualifying offer player because their minors couldn't take a hit with the luxury tax draft penalties. Manaea would be a good signing if the same strategy applies. Heck, he would be a good signing anyway. Jack Flaherty ,a non QO player, would be a better because he had a better fWAR and ERA and is younger with probably with a similar price point.
If Stearns abandoned this strategy, which I think he is, then Corbin Burnes would be my primary target as a SP2.
I like Burnes but I worry about that strikeout rate.
2021 - 12.61 K/9
2022 - 10.83
2023 - 9.29
2024 - 8.38
How much longer can he be a 3-4 fWAR pitcher with his K-rate in free fall?
I like Manaea and hope they can pull off a three year deal in the $60 million plus range. He had a strong season and is a perfect #3 or #4 behind Senga, Burnes and Flaherty. But Flaherty already said he wants to stay in LA and who would blame him. He will certainly be rewarded with the team with the very deep pockets. So that leaves the Mets looking for another strong pitcher who I hope is not named Blake Snell. Snell must have his head examined at age 31 opting out on a $30 million plus multi year deal having managed to start just 20 games last year. And Garrett Cole opted out as well having started just17 games and walking away from four more years and $144 million coming his way. I’d pass on this 34 year old as well. I’d try for Max Fried just to further hinder the Braves season. Then fill in with Peterson and whoever of Severino or Quintana they can get at a reasonable price.
Sorry for the double comment. It was one of those days.