Filling out the Mets rotation through free agency

A few days ago, Brian Joura posted a poll asking how the best way for the Mets to add a top-of-the-rotation starter would be, and 73% of respondents said they would rather the team do so through free agency instead of through a trade or international posting. With a market containing Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell, there are certainly the arms available to make that kind of a splash through a big signing.

However, as the Mets’ postseason exit to the Dodgers proved this postseason, the team is going to need more than just one ace at the top of the rotation to get over the hump and back to the World Series. With Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana all free agents, the Mets are in the position of needing to rebuild most of their starting rotation heading into 2025.

The good news is that even beyond those top three starters, the current free agent class is particularly pitching rich, and there are plenty of pitchers out there to choose from. That being said, for the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume that the Mets do go out and make a big splash this offseason and sign Juan Soto and one of the top three starting pitchers.

Assuming that Soto’s hypothetical contract is not extremely backloaded in the way the Shohei Ohtani’s is with the Dodgers, that leaves limited money to spend on filling out the starting rotation and acquiring depth to weather potential injuries and underperformance.

Between Severino and Manaea in 2024, David Stearns struck gold with two pitchers on short-term prove-it deals, so let’s float out a few names of potential options in that realm. I know this seems like bargain hunting, and to an extent it is, but also keep in mind in this hypothetical we are looking for those 4-7 starters after the team has already landed Soto and say, Burnes.

Former ace injury risks

Looking at the current list of free agent pitchers, two names stand out in this category as risky but potentially high-upside moves: Shane Bieber and Frankie Montas.

Bieber will only be going into his age 30 season and is already a two-time all-star, won the 2020 AL Cy Young and finished in the top 10 two other times, won a Gold Glove in 2022 and even has a top 5 MVP finish. However, he also has dealt with a lot of elbow trouble over the past two years, missing two months with elbow inflammation in 2023 and then undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2024. It is unclear if he would be ready to go on Opening Day or would be looking more at a mid-season return, but if he regains his pre-injury form, Bieber could give the Mets ace-level production at a bargain price.

Montas slightly less risky than Bieber but definitely lower upside if the Mets roll the dice on him. After throwing just 1.1 innings in 2023 due to a shoulder injury, he returned last year with 150.2 innings of 4.84 ERA ball for Cincinnati and Milwaukee. It was a very up-and-down first season back from injury in 2024 for Montas, but it wasn’t without it highlights. Encouragingly, he had some of his best starts of the season in September, posting two starts with 10 strikeouts. His velocity bounced back to where it was before his injury, which is encouraging enough that there is still the potential for an effective pitcher in him. He will turn 32 next year, so even a reasonable two-year deal is not out of the question for someone you could pencil in as a back-end starter with some upside.

Former NL East prospects

In this very niche category are two young and once-promising pitchers whose careers have been completely de-railed by injuries – Michael Soroka and Sixto Sanchez. Soroka’s leg injuries and Sanchez’s shoulder woes have thrown the brakes on what were incredibly promising starts to their careers. Soroka had a rough season with the Chicago White Sox in 2024, but was much better upon moving to the bullpen, posting a 2.75 ERA in 36.0 innings after a 6.39 as a starter in 43.2 IP. Sanchez had an ERA north of 6.00 and more injury issues.

Soroka is probably worth a flier as a guy who could start the year as a swingman while Sanchez would be best-suited as Triple-A depth. What makes them particularly attractive as potential options, is their youth – Soroka is going into his age 27 season and Sanchez will only be 26.

Back for another stint?

While Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are both free agents, that is not who this category is for. No, it is for a much less-sexy option – Chris Flexen. Since we last saw Flexen as a Met in 2019, he has pitched two good years (and one bad half-year) with the Seattle Mariners, a bad half-year with the Rockies, and went 3-15 with a 4.95 ERA with the 2024 White Sox. That said, his stretch from 2021 and 2022 with Seattle saw him post a 3.66 ERA in 317.1 innings. He has done some tinkering around the past few seasons with his breaking balls, varying how much he throws his slider and curveball and even mixing in a sweeper before scrapping that in 2024.

Flexen may very well be a guy who thrives coming back to a pitcher-friendly environment and working with Jeremy Hefner to regain his form from a couple years ago. Even if he doesn’t, his production is good enough that he would be a serviceable swing man for depth.

These are obviously just a couple different ways the Mets could look to fill out the rotation in 2024. The crop of pitching prospects at the higher levels including Christian Scott, Dom Hamel, Mike Vasil, Blade Tidwell and Brandon Sproat and the return of Kodai Senga will definitely help in providing rotation depth, but it is dangerous for a team that wants to compete to rely all on youth for their depth. Bringing in a few veterans to supplement that along with an ace signing could be exactly the formula the Mets are looking for in 2025.