Thank you Brian. That is impressive turn-around time to gather, organize, and analyze all the data. I was going to do some follow-up on this very topic over the next week or so. I think I will switch my focus to how they rank in the 7+ runs per game. I suspect that their 45 games is in the top echelon.
I did notice that the Tigers were the only playoff team with more games with 2 or less runs scored than the Mets.
A couple interesting follow-up notes: The 45 games with 7 or more runs is in fact near the top - tied for 4th with the Orioles behind the Dodgers (46), Yankees (48, and D-Backs (54). The league average is 35.53. It seems like their standard deviation of run scoring is quite large (not that I understand standard deviation that well)
Also, just for curiosity, I checked the 2022 Mets stats. The '22 version won 101 games, but looked very similar to the '24 Mets with 48 games of 2 or less runs scored and 46 games with 7 or more scored. The '22 Mets were shut out only 8 times compared to the '24 Mets 13 goose eggs. The '22 Mets scored just 4 more runs than the '24 Mets did.
Hopefully Lindor gets off to a better start and Soto performs like he did last year. If that happens, my guess is that scoring runs won't be a huge problem. And if McNeil and Nimmo want to hit early, too, that would be just fine.
What an interesting perspective on runs scored per game. Unless I missed it, I did not see what the Mets' record was in those 49 games. That would add a little more context to how badly the lack of offense may have hurt them. Of course Jake deGrom would have paid dearly for the Mets to just score three runs a game for him. He might have been a 20 game winner one year.
My supposition is that since they stunk through the end of May and that they scored three or less in 14 of their first 43 games, that they likely had a losing record in those 49 contests. Given their average runs scored per game, they had a really good season.
The Mets were 0-13 in the games they were shut-out; 1-12 in the games they scored 1 run and 7-16 in the games they scored 2 runs, for a composite 8-41 in games they scored 2 or fewer runs.
Can the 2025 Mets better their run production? Based on wRC+,McNeil (97), Nimmo (109) and Alvarez (102) are prime candidates. Soto(180) is an improvement for Alonso (122) but realistically Soto had a career wRC+ avg. 158. The new third baseman (Baty, Mauricio or Acuna ) just needs a 64 wRC+ to match the 2024 run production. 2025 should produce more runs even if there is no Alsono or Bregman.
Bill’s question and Brian’s follow up are both tremendous. I have actually wondered about this for years watching Mets games and extended dry spells of offense. Baseball is a game of ebbs and flows, and all teams will have spans where they look really good or really bad at offense. The context not only helps with one team, it helps with the sport as well. Now I can actually relax a bit more, understanding that basically all fans are tortured by large spans of no offense throughout a season, not just Met fans. Thank you for adding that context to my fandom.
This isn't directed to you but rather to anyone who reads this. We cannot take the Mets' 49 total at face value, due to Citi Field playing as an extreme pitcher's park the first two months of the season. They were middle of the pack with that obstacle. And if we give them the same percentage of ultra-low-scoring games those two months at home that they had on the road in that time frame, they'd have the eighth-fewest games of 0-2 runs. And they'd have fewer of those games than the playoff teams of Houston, San Diego, Kansas City, Atlanta, Cleveland and Detroit.
Thank you Brian. That is impressive turn-around time to gather, organize, and analyze all the data. I was going to do some follow-up on this very topic over the next week or so. I think I will switch my focus to how they rank in the 7+ runs per game. I suspect that their 45 games is in the top echelon.
I did notice that the Tigers were the only playoff team with more games with 2 or less runs scored than the Mets.
A couple interesting follow-up notes: The 45 games with 7 or more runs is in fact near the top - tied for 4th with the Orioles behind the Dodgers (46), Yankees (48, and D-Backs (54). The league average is 35.53. It seems like their standard deviation of run scoring is quite large (not that I understand standard deviation that well)
Also, just for curiosity, I checked the 2022 Mets stats. The '22 version won 101 games, but looked very similar to the '24 Mets with 48 games of 2 or less runs scored and 46 games with 7 or more scored. The '22 Mets were shut out only 8 times compared to the '24 Mets 13 goose eggs. The '22 Mets scored just 4 more runs than the '24 Mets did.
Yes, the Tigers were the only post season to have more, but perhaps worth noting that the Mets were had the most of all the NL post season teams.
Very informative thank you. Wonder if we should just be setting our expectations for citi field run production until the weather warms up.
I don't believe I would go that far.
Hopefully Lindor gets off to a better start and Soto performs like he did last year. If that happens, my guess is that scoring runs won't be a huge problem. And if McNeil and Nimmo want to hit early, too, that would be just fine.
+1
The weather is not much better for the home Yankees, Red Sox, Guardians, Tigers, etc.
Having Soto is going to help everyone (i hope)
What an interesting perspective on runs scored per game. Unless I missed it, I did not see what the Mets' record was in those 49 games. That would add a little more context to how badly the lack of offense may have hurt them. Of course Jake deGrom would have paid dearly for the Mets to just score three runs a game for him. He might have been a 20 game winner one year.
My supposition is that since they stunk through the end of May and that they scored three or less in 14 of their first 43 games, that they likely had a losing record in those 49 contests. Given their average runs scored per game, they had a really good season.
The Mets were 0-13 in the games they were shut-out; 1-12 in the games they scored 1 run and 7-16 in the games they scored 2 runs, for a composite 8-41 in games they scored 2 or fewer runs.
Thanks.
Can the 2025 Mets better their run production? Based on wRC+,McNeil (97), Nimmo (109) and Alvarez (102) are prime candidates. Soto(180) is an improvement for Alonso (122) but realistically Soto had a career wRC+ avg. 158. The new third baseman (Baty, Mauricio or Acuna ) just needs a 64 wRC+ to match the 2024 run production. 2025 should produce more runs even if there is no Alsono or Bregman.
Bill’s question and Brian’s follow up are both tremendous. I have actually wondered about this for years watching Mets games and extended dry spells of offense. Baseball is a game of ebbs and flows, and all teams will have spans where they look really good or really bad at offense. The context not only helps with one team, it helps with the sport as well. Now I can actually relax a bit more, understanding that basically all fans are tortured by large spans of no offense throughout a season, not just Met fans. Thank you for adding that context to my fandom.
Thanks T.J.
This isn't directed to you but rather to anyone who reads this. We cannot take the Mets' 49 total at face value, due to Citi Field playing as an extreme pitcher's park the first two months of the season. They were middle of the pack with that obstacle. And if we give them the same percentage of ultra-low-scoring games those two months at home that they had on the road in that time frame, they'd have the eighth-fewest games of 0-2 runs. And they'd have fewer of those games than the playoff teams of Houston, San Diego, Kansas City, Atlanta, Cleveland and Detroit.
That's necessary context, too.