The most frustrating and overwrought “will-they-or-won’t-they” since Ross and Rachel just may have been the one that played out this winter between the Mets and homegrown free agent Pete Alonso. The back-and-forth even had a made-for-TV ending wherein the parties in question, seemingly bucking the odds, ultimately reunited. The primary factor underpinning the dramatically lengthy courtship was, of course, the clear gap between what Alonso and the team believed to be fair compensation for his continued services both in years and dollars.
Excellent article. I believe the answer to the title of the article is yes. Because of an article that I saw a while back about plate appearance results with first pitch swinging, I have been doing some additional research on that topic. The evidence is there that the pitchers have the upper hand when they can throw strike one without worrying much about the hitter swinging at it. All pitches are not created equally. Although not a Met, Brent Rooker of the A's is a guy that changed his first pitch swinging approach with great positive results.
I knew that Pete was not particularly aggressive on pitch 1, but I had not thought of time-clock aspect of it. It certainly looks like Pete might need to make some adjustments.
Great but overwhelming stats and charts with this article. Passive could be applied to many players who just take strike one like it is expected. There were some games this past season where the Mets came out swinging versus trying to run up the pitch count and that produced some quick runs giving them a leg up from the start. I’d like the whole team to be more aggressive at the plate given that we all grew up with the notion that pitchers who throw strike one from the start and go up 0-1 in the count have an advantage. How many times did we lament in the game chatter about Alonso swinging at the low and outside pitch that a high school player would lay off? While his hitting has declined the last few years, no one seems so upset about declining batting averages because there are some many other metrics that they say are more telling about how a batter is doing. And it appears that when some of the other metrics are okay, that increased strikeouts are brushed aside. Kyle Schwarber batted .197 with 215 Ks in 2023 but that was okay because of his power numbers that produced 47 HR but only 104 RBI. When you hit so many long balls the need to play small ball, something the Mets did well in 2024, becomes lost in the shuffle.
My take is that the declining average and increased strikeouts tells a story of a player that is not getting hits or moving the runners along and therefore it results in less runs scored. This could have less to do with a players decline versus a coaching staff that is missing the boat. These days a player gets back to the dugout and looks at their at bat on a tablet. Either they are blind or refusing to change their approach to hitting. We also hear that players work countless hours in the batting cage to correct flaws but often do not see improvement on the field. Some of that must be attributed to decline, and some to refusal to change an approach and some to poor coaching.
Another factor in a batter’s success is how the players around them are hitting. While the notion of having someone behind you to protect you appears to have much less impact in reality, it still seems that if players behind you in the order are not performing well then you will get fewer good pitchers to hit. This notion will be put to the test this year if Alonso slots in the three hole and then has Nimmo, Vientos and Alvarez batting after him.
So I agree with the need for Alonso to become less passive and be more ready to attack the ball. It would also be helpful if he can lay off the low and outside pitch and has a more aggressive approach at the plate that would have him swinging at more pitches over the plate. Can’t imagine standing in against a 96 MPH fast ball, let alone being able to swing and hit it in the split second after it leaves the pitchers hand. But that’s what separates the pros from us mere mortals and why they make more in a game then most of us make in a year.
Looking for a bounce back year from Pete and a huge increase in RBI. I’d accept 35-40 HR if he becomes a better run producer and while statistically he does not rank in the top of the first base fielders, you have to still appreciate the way he digs balls out of the dirt that saves countless errors and runs. If he has a monster season and the Mets win it all, it will be interesting whether the Mets sign him to a three year extension, or say thanks Pete, we still think you’re heading into your declining 30’s. I guess the opt out serves both parties and puts the onus on Alonso to step up, something he did more in the playoffs when it really counted than in the regular season.
My initial reaction is that I could see the pitch clock being an issue in 2023 but after having played with it for a full season - and having a full offseason to adjust - it shouldn't have been a major factor in 2024.
But too many strikeouts and too many grounders is a bad combo for a power hitter.
Excellent article. I believe the answer to the title of the article is yes. Because of an article that I saw a while back about plate appearance results with first pitch swinging, I have been doing some additional research on that topic. The evidence is there that the pitchers have the upper hand when they can throw strike one without worrying much about the hitter swinging at it. All pitches are not created equally. Although not a Met, Brent Rooker of the A's is a guy that changed his first pitch swinging approach with great positive results.
I knew that Pete was not particularly aggressive on pitch 1, but I had not thought of time-clock aspect of it. It certainly looks like Pete might need to make some adjustments.
Great stuff! Thanks!
Great but overwhelming stats and charts with this article. Passive could be applied to many players who just take strike one like it is expected. There were some games this past season where the Mets came out swinging versus trying to run up the pitch count and that produced some quick runs giving them a leg up from the start. I’d like the whole team to be more aggressive at the plate given that we all grew up with the notion that pitchers who throw strike one from the start and go up 0-1 in the count have an advantage. How many times did we lament in the game chatter about Alonso swinging at the low and outside pitch that a high school player would lay off? While his hitting has declined the last few years, no one seems so upset about declining batting averages because there are some many other metrics that they say are more telling about how a batter is doing. And it appears that when some of the other metrics are okay, that increased strikeouts are brushed aside. Kyle Schwarber batted .197 with 215 Ks in 2023 but that was okay because of his power numbers that produced 47 HR but only 104 RBI. When you hit so many long balls the need to play small ball, something the Mets did well in 2024, becomes lost in the shuffle.
My take is that the declining average and increased strikeouts tells a story of a player that is not getting hits or moving the runners along and therefore it results in less runs scored. This could have less to do with a players decline versus a coaching staff that is missing the boat. These days a player gets back to the dugout and looks at their at bat on a tablet. Either they are blind or refusing to change their approach to hitting. We also hear that players work countless hours in the batting cage to correct flaws but often do not see improvement on the field. Some of that must be attributed to decline, and some to refusal to change an approach and some to poor coaching.
Another factor in a batter’s success is how the players around them are hitting. While the notion of having someone behind you to protect you appears to have much less impact in reality, it still seems that if players behind you in the order are not performing well then you will get fewer good pitchers to hit. This notion will be put to the test this year if Alonso slots in the three hole and then has Nimmo, Vientos and Alvarez batting after him.
So I agree with the need for Alonso to become less passive and be more ready to attack the ball. It would also be helpful if he can lay off the low and outside pitch and has a more aggressive approach at the plate that would have him swinging at more pitches over the plate. Can’t imagine standing in against a 96 MPH fast ball, let alone being able to swing and hit it in the split second after it leaves the pitchers hand. But that’s what separates the pros from us mere mortals and why they make more in a game then most of us make in a year.
Looking for a bounce back year from Pete and a huge increase in RBI. I’d accept 35-40 HR if he becomes a better run producer and while statistically he does not rank in the top of the first base fielders, you have to still appreciate the way he digs balls out of the dirt that saves countless errors and runs. If he has a monster season and the Mets win it all, it will be interesting whether the Mets sign him to a three year extension, or say thanks Pete, we still think you’re heading into your declining 30’s. I guess the opt out serves both parties and puts the onus on Alonso to step up, something he did more in the playoffs when it really counted than in the regular season.
I love the phrase, "counterproductive passivity."
My initial reaction is that I could see the pitch clock being an issue in 2023 but after having played with it for a full season - and having a full offseason to adjust - it shouldn't have been a major factor in 2024.
But too many strikeouts and too many grounders is a bad combo for a power hitter.