How will the Mets' post-deadline pitching staff shake out?

Freddy Peralta made five starts for the Mets in July and in that time span he allowed 17 ER in 22.1 IP for a 6.85 ERA. He arrived in the offseason with the idea that he’d be starting Game 1 in a playoff series. He departs with absolutely no one disappointed to see him leave. It’s hard to imagine a worse outcome. At least the prospects they gave up to get Peralta haven’t exactly been lighting the world on fire. The Cubs were able to get David Peterson untracked – 2-0, 1.32 ERA in 23.2 IP over his last four starts – and few will be shocked if the Rays are able to do likewise with Peralta. Which leaves the Mets wondering if, in the long run, the three players they received for trading Peralta will come close to the production of the two they gave up to get him. Wouldn’t that be something?

In the short term, the Mets have to figure out how to replace Peralta in the rotation. Do they give another shot to Kodai Senga? Senga went 13 days without pitching prior to his last start. He was very good thru four innings and then allowed three baserunners to start the fifth, all of whom came around to score. Was he lucky in the beginning of the outing? Was he unlucky with the two runners he left on base both coming in to score? Was there enough there to merit another start for the guy with a 9.66 ERA this year as a SP?

Robert Stock made a spot start and he pitched better than anyone would have guessed. He came up and allowed just a solo homer in five innings. Stock is even older than Senga – he’s 36. He’s appeared in 58 games in the majors, with four starts. Three of those starts have come with the Mets, as he made two for the club in his first go-round in 2021. Those didn’t go quite as well, as he combined for a 5.40 ERA and a 1.800 WHIP.

The Mets have a whole lot more invested in Senga than they do Stock. However unlikely he might be to reach his peak performance, Senga has a much-higher upside than Stock. Perhaps the most encouraging thing in Senga’s last outing is that he didn’t give up a home run. It might not sound like much but prior to that game, he allowed 12 HR in 40.2 IP, which is frightening.

My expectation is that the Mets will give Senga another shot. Regardless if they pick Senga or Scott, the other four starters for the club have been on a nice roll here lately. Here’s how they’ve done since the beginning of July:

24.0 IP, 6 ER, 2.25 ERA – Zac Thornton
24.1 IP, 7 ER, 2.59 ERA – Christian Scott
28.2 IP, 12 ER, 3.77 ERA – Sean Manaea
30.1 IP, 6 ER, 1.78 ERA – Nolan McLean
107.1 IP, 31 ER, 2.60 ERA

In that same time frame, all MLB starters have a 4.23 ERA.

Thru the first four months of the season, the Mets’ strength was their bullpen. But after trading four relievers in the past few days, the starters and the offense are going to have to pick up the slack. For the most part, the starters have been up to the task in the past month. But will they be asked to pitch more innings going forward? Ordinarily, you’d think that would be the case. Yet it seems unlikely they’ll go to the whip with McLean, Scott and Thornton.

So, who makes up the pen going forward? Devin Williams is still around to close out any games the offense decides to score more than two runs. According to FanGraphs’ RosterResource the club will promote Xzavion Curry, Nate Lavender, Chayce McDermott, Dedniel Nunez and Jefry Yan. That’s one more reliever than the club traded away, so a move with a current reliever will need to happen.

Curry has been up before, where he’s been a mop-up man. He’ll likely have to take on a bigger role the rest of the year. Lavender had some buzz coming up from the minors before being lost in the Rule 5 Draft. But he was returned to the Mets prior to this season and has performed solidly. The most impressive thing is the 53 Ks he posted in 33 IP for Syracuse. McDermott was just acquired from the Dodgers. His numbers do not inspire confidence. Nunez was great for the Mets in 2024 before undergoing TJ surgery the following year. He’s rehabbed since late June. In his last six games for Syracuse, Nunez has allowed 1 ER in 6.1 IP with 9 Ks. It would be terrific if he was able to get back to his 2024 form. Yan has 77 Ks in 41.2 IP split between Double-A and Triple-A and has allowed just 2 HR in that span.

My best guess is that Daniel Duarte and either Senga or Stock will fill out the pen.

Clearly, the bullpen will take a major step backwards. It would feel better if Huascar Brazoban was still around. Perhaps Austin Warren can come back and fill a role once he’s recovered from his forearm strain. He’s made three appearances here recently in A-ball and has not allowed a run. It seems likely the Mets will cycle thru a bunch of relievers the rest of the year and hope that a few of them will step up and be contenders for a spot in the pen in 2027.

If things break half-decently, you could see a representative pitching staff the rest of the way, especially if the starters keep up their strong pitching. Yet it’s difficult to have that same optimism around the offense. Perhaps the multiple under-achieving players will turn over a new leaf the final two months of the year. I just cracked myself up typing that line – hope you got a laugh out of it, too.