Kodai Senga and the Mets' 6-man rotation decision

The Mets made very few transactions for the first 25 games of the season, mostly due to the fact that their players got hurt in Spring Training, rather than the first few weeks of the year. That changed with two of the walking wounded returning, as Francisco Alvarez and Jeff McNeil completed their rehab assignments and will likely make their 2025 debut Friday night in Washington D.C.

While most are focusing on how Carlos Mendoza will utilize Alvarez and McNeil, my thoughts are on April 30 and what transaction the Mets might make then. Kodai Senga is slated to pitch tonight on the 25^th and would be in line to start on the 30^th, too. But that would be on a five-man rotation, something the Mets have bent over backwards to avoid using with Senga throughout his brief time with the club.

Tonight will be Senga’s 35^th start in the majors and the 32^nd time he’s pitched with more than four days of rest. In his 20 starts with five days of rest between appearances, Senga is 11-5 with a 2.58 ERA. His results are similar with six or more days off, as he has a 2.62 ERA in 11 starts. Yet it’s a different story when he goes on four days of rest. While it’s only three games, Senga has a 4.61 ERA, with 9 BB in 13.2 IP.

In the past, Senga has claimed to want no special treatment in this regard. It’s what you want to hear from your player. Yet it seems reasonable for the Mets to put their pitcher in the best place to have success. Ahead of tonight’s game in D.C., Senga has a 0.79 ERA in four starts. That could blow up tonight and an early exit might convince the Mets to forego giving him extra rest for his next start.

However, if you were running the Mets and Senga pitched great again tonight, how eager would you be to upset the routine and deviate from what’s been so successful?

The oft-stated plan before Spring Training started and thru the early part of Grapefruit League play was that the Mets would go with a six-man rotation once the schedule required it. But then came the injury to Frankie Montas, followed by one to Sean Manaea. And Paul Blackburn’s recover from his spinal fluid leak did not have him ready for Opening Day, either.

So far, the Mets had one turn thru the rotation which required a sixth starter. They used an opener and called up Justin Hagenman for bulk innings to cover that outing. But after yesterday’s day off, the Mets play 13 straight days, with Senga pitching the first game. That means that without making plans to insert someone into the rotation, he’ll make two starts on four days of rest before the next break in the schedule.

Complicating matters is that the Mets have had so much success because the bullpen has covered a bunch of innings at a great rate. Yet if the Mets were to go with a sixth starter, it would mean cutting a relief pitcher from the equation. Would seven relievers be able to hold down the fort as well as eight relievers have done to date? Plus, who would go to make room for an extra starter?

Last time it was Max Kranick, who had thrown a lot of pitches the day before he was sent to the minors. But that comes with a caveat, as the Mets had Jose Siri in their back pocket, knowing they could put him on the IL and recall Kranick before 15 days since his demotion. Maybe between now and the 30^th, another injury situation will arise. Is that something you want to count on, though?

Huascar Brazoban and Kranick each have an option, so they can be sent to the minors without fear of losing them. Danny Young does not. While Young did a great job in his last outing – striking out two tough lefty batters – he has the worst numbers of any reliever on the squad. Well, that’s not exactly true, as he has identical numbers to Edwin Diaz. We all know that, outside of an injury, Diaz isn’t going anywhere.

Even if you are committed to bringing up a pitcher to ensure Senga has extra rest – who would it be. Blackburn’s the closest to being ready of the three injured pitchers but he’s made only one rehab appearance and had his second one pushed back due to illness. Top prospect Brandon Sproat has a 5.79 ERA in five starts in Triple-A and has allowed 10 BB in 18.2 IP.

Blade Tidwell hasn’t been a ton better with a 4.43 ERA but at least he has a better K/BB ratio, with a 2.80 mark. He’s not on the 40-man roster, though. Neither is Dom Hamel, who has been the best of the youngsters, with a 2.45 ERA and a 5.0 K/BB ratio. But it’s only been three starts and 11 IP. He last pitched on 4/23. It might be worth monitoring if they have him pitch more than an inning or two – or skip him altogether – between now and the 30^th.

Hagenman pitched well in the majors and is already on the 40-man, which might make him the obvious choice. But he’s not been very good at Syracuse, with an ERA even worse than Sproat’s. The Mets added MLB vet Jose Urena for rotation depth and also have 31-year-old Brandon Waddell, who’s been pitching better than anyone, with a 1.40 ERA in 19 IP. He’s not on the 40-man, though.

The Mets have an available spot on the 40-man and they could open another by moving either Ronny Mauricio or Siri to the 60-day IL. However, they may prefer to keep that flexibility for a bigger move down the line.

My preference would be to keep Senga on extra rest. Maybe Brazoban or Kranick will have a heavy workload on April 29 and could be sent down for an extra starter. If not, there would be few tears from this corner if Young was jettisoned. As for who would get the call, both Hamel and Waddell are intriguing. Waddell last pitched on April 19. It’s possible he starts Friday night and is on schedule to pitch again on April 30. If it works out that he starts tonight, that might make him the best choice.

If the Mets do indeed go to a six-man rotation, they’ll need the starters to give more length. Here’s hoping that begins tonight, with Senga going seven strong frames.