Kodai Senga's dominance, Brandon Nimmo's mini hot-streak and the team's success stealing bases

Kodai Senga is having a great year, leading the league in ERA (1.60) and ERA+ (239) in his first 11 starts and 62 IP. It will be an open question if he can add 100 more innings the rest of the way in order to qualify for the ERA title. Unlike the batting title, where a player can qualify by adding hitless plate appearances to reach the minimum threshold, there is no such adjustment for ERA qualification. While it would be nice for Senga to be officially recognized for having the lowest ERA, all of us would sign up for it in a minute for him to finish with 161 IP and a 1.60 ERA.

Senga signed a five-year contract, one he could opt out of after this season if he totaled 400 IP between 2023-25. Due to the injury that cost him most of the 2024 season, Senga will not reach that threshold and will be a Met for two more years after this one. And that’s great news for the Mets. While this season has been terrific, Senga has been a tremendous pitcher when healthy. In 41 games as a Met, Senga is 19-10 with a 2.62 ERA over 233.2 IP.

The Mets signed Senga to a 5/$75 contract and so far, he’s returned 4.9 fWAR. If we go with a unit of WAR being worth $8 million – the typical ballpark estimate – Senga has provided $39.2 million of value. With over two-and-a-half seasons remaining on his deal, he should provide excess value on his contract, no small feat considering he missed nearly an entire season. There was concern in some corners about his ability to stay healthy coming into this year. Yet Senga has taken the ball each time his spot has come up in the rotation.

We could wish that Senga would be effective in a normal five-man rotation. Perhaps he could. Yet with how good he’s been when getting extra rest, it seems like a trade-off worth making. Fortunately, the Mets have been very good with assembling the pitching depth necessary to go with six starters. And with the return of the three starters who opened the year on the IL, the Mets could even make a consolidation trade, including one or two current starters in a multi-player deal to get a top of the rotation starter, should one become available.

A GLIMPSE OF THE MULTI-TOOL HITTER – It’s been a tough go for long stretches in the past two seasons for Brandon Nimmo. There were whispers that age was catching up with him and the injuries he suffered the past two years certainly didn’t help in that regard. At the same time, there were indications that Nimmo was hitting into some tough luck, both with his BABIP and his “x” stats suggesting that better days were ahead.

In his last 10 games, Nimmo has a .333/.415/.556 mark over 41 PA. Yes, it’s a small sample. But given that he had a .671 OPS before that span, we’ll take any good news we can get. This hot stretch has corresponded with Nimmo moving back to the top of the order, where he’s mostly hit second in the order. People were more than willing to credit Francisco Lindor’s turnaround last year to his move to the first spot in the lineup. It will be curious to see if they apply the same logic with Nimmo, should he be productive for a longer stretch.

SIX-MAN RELIEF CORPS GETTING IT DONE – Back in 2021, it was posited here that the vast majority of successful teams had at least four relievers with at least a 100 ERA+ over a span of at least 30 IP. In the previous two full seasons, 19 of the 21 teams to win 90 games met this threshold, with the two teams that didn’t having made trades at the deadline importing a key bullpen arm who just missed the 30-IP requirement. And while there were a bunch of examples of teams who had four or more relievers meet the requirements which did not win 90 games, this should be looked at not as the lone key to success but rather a necessary thing to be a playoff-caliber club.

The 2024 Mets fell a game shy of 90 wins but had four pitchers meet our criteria. This year’s pen features six people who have either met the innings requirement or who are on pace to do so, with an ERA+ over 100. Huascar Brazoban, Jose Butto, Edwin Diaz, Reed Garrett, Max Kranick and Ryne Stanek have combined for 174 IP and 49 ER, good for a 2.53 ERA. The bullpen has received a lot of credit for the team’s success and they’ve absolutely deserved to receive those kudos.

THE IMPORTANCE OF STRIKEOUTS – Thru his first 36 games this season, Pete Alonso had 25 BB and 24 Ks and rode that plate discipline to a 1.143 OPS. In his last 27 games, Alonso has 6 BB and 34 Ks and a .753 OPS. In 2024, Alonso had 70 BB, 172 Ks and a .788 OPS.

Yet maybe Alonso’s success depends more upon limiting strikeouts than it does amassing walks. Last year, he had a 24.7 K%. In the first 36 games this season, Alonso had a 15.0 K%. And while he has a 29.1 K% in his last 27 games, that stretch can be broken down into two periods. In the first 15 games of his poor streak, Alonso had a .403 OPS and a 38.5 K%. However, in his last 12 games, he has a 1.191 OPS and a 17.3 K%. Alonso has just two walks in his last 12 games but is putting up good numbers because his strikeouts aren’t outrageous.

THOSE RUNNING METS – Historically, the Mets have not been a team that put up big stolen base numbers. Sure, there were some good individual seasons here and there but overall, no one would describe the Mets as a big running team. But after 63 games, the Mets this year lead the majors with a SB success rate of 85.7%, having been successful on 49 of 57 attempts, including all five here in June.

Yet despite their great success rate, the Mets are just middle-of-the-pack with their 49 steals ranking 13^th in the majors, just one better than the league average. Even though I’m more of a fan of power than speed, my opinion is that the Mets should run more than they do. Part of the issue is that they don’t run when either Juan Soto or Alonso is hitting. Still, they can be cautious when their two sluggers are up yet still run more than they do otherwise. Luisangel Acuna, Tyrone Taylor, Soto and Starling Marte have succeeded on 28 of 31 steal attempts. Those four in particular should run more.