While the new rules have made it easier to steal bases - I don't believe they impact what the break-even point is for attempting to steal. That has a whole lot more to do with the run-scoring environment and what the run-expectancy state is.
Ben Clemens at FG recently created RE charts based on 2025 numbers. With a runner on first and no outs, the RE is 0.87 and if the runner steals second, the RE is 1.12 or an increase of 0.25 - so the break-even point would be 75%.
But if there are runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs, the RE is 1.55 but if you pull off a double-steal, the RE with runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs is 2.04 or an increase of 0.49 - so the break even point drops to about 50%.
Perhaps the most interesting state is 2 outs and a runner on third. The RE is 0.32 so if you have a better than 1-in-3 chance of a successful steal - you should go. Of course, this is almost never done, due to the risk-averse nature of most clubs. But it's something interesting to consider.
You've got it quite wrong, my friend. Take just your second graf: Your comparisons need to include more than that between the RE with a runner on 2nd and no one out (successful steal), and the RE with no one on and one out (unsuccessful steal). The comparison in fact requires three conditions: the runner getting thrown out, the runner succeeding, and the player not running at all. You've omitted one of those REs entirely (hint: it's not zero), meaning your comparison is necessarily incorrect.
I say this without trying to be unkind, but this is an error so basic (and it's hardly the only error in your comment) I have to ask, have you considered a course in basic statistics given some fans however informally rely on your calculations? Cheers,
The Mets lead MLB in starting pitching ERA. They used a semi six man rotation. The relievers have the 10th most innings pitched but are second in reliever ERA . Everything is working spectacularly and nothing needs to change except for the fans accepting the new way that the pitching staff operates.
Nimmo fits in the 2 hole and has a nice renaissance. I hope his OPS keeps rising.
Alonso's reduced strikeout rate could be an indication of a different two strike approach.
Soto is the MLB leader in walks. Pitchers aren't pitching to him anyway so a healthy Lindor and Nimmo should run more . If Soto is intentionally walked then the MLB leader for RBI, Alonso, we get more opportunities. Definitely Acuna, Taylor and Marte to run more also because of their great success rate.
As a proponent of small ball, the Mets need to run more than they do, especially after a pitcher has either stepped off or thrown over to first base twice. Given how poorly they hit with RISP, it’s a shocker that they are still waiting for the three run homer. Especially true in extra innings with the absurd ghost runner - bunt him over, hit a sac fly, take the lead. It’s not a hard concept.
What's the break even point for stealing bases since they changed the rules?
While the new rules have made it easier to steal bases - I don't believe they impact what the break-even point is for attempting to steal. That has a whole lot more to do with the run-scoring environment and what the run-expectancy state is.
Ben Clemens at FG recently created RE charts based on 2025 numbers. With a runner on first and no outs, the RE is 0.87 and if the runner steals second, the RE is 1.12 or an increase of 0.25 - so the break-even point would be 75%.
But if there are runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs, the RE is 1.55 but if you pull off a double-steal, the RE with runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs is 2.04 or an increase of 0.49 - so the break even point drops to about 50%.
Perhaps the most interesting state is 2 outs and a runner on third. The RE is 0.32 so if you have a better than 1-in-3 chance of a successful steal - you should go. Of course, this is almost never done, due to the risk-averse nature of most clubs. But it's something interesting to consider.
You've got it quite wrong, my friend. Take just your second graf: Your comparisons need to include more than that between the RE with a runner on 2nd and no one out (successful steal), and the RE with no one on and one out (unsuccessful steal). The comparison in fact requires three conditions: the runner getting thrown out, the runner succeeding, and the player not running at all. You've omitted one of those REs entirely (hint: it's not zero), meaning your comparison is necessarily incorrect.
I say this without trying to be unkind, but this is an error so basic (and it's hardly the only error in your comment) I have to ask, have you considered a course in basic statistics given some fans however informally rely on your calculations? Cheers,
The Mets lead MLB in starting pitching ERA. They used a semi six man rotation. The relievers have the 10th most innings pitched but are second in reliever ERA . Everything is working spectacularly and nothing needs to change except for the fans accepting the new way that the pitching staff operates.
Nimmo fits in the 2 hole and has a nice renaissance. I hope his OPS keeps rising.
Alonso's reduced strikeout rate could be an indication of a different two strike approach.
Soto is the MLB leader in walks. Pitchers aren't pitching to him anyway so a healthy Lindor and Nimmo should run more . If Soto is intentionally walked then the MLB leader for RBI, Alonso, we get more opportunities. Definitely Acuna, Taylor and Marte to run more also because of their great success rate.
Soto is a 230 hitter!
As a proponent of small ball, the Mets need to run more than they do, especially after a pitcher has either stepped off or thrown over to first base twice. Given how poorly they hit with RISP, it’s a shocker that they are still waiting for the three run homer. Especially true in extra innings with the absurd ghost runner - bunt him over, hit a sac fly, take the lead. It’s not a hard concept.