Excellent piece, Brian! I had started some of this research earlier this winter and didn't get it anywhere near what you have completed. That is a ton of tremedous work you put in.
I had originally postulated that this was the case and was surprised when Snell and Fried signed their contracts earlier this off-season. I wondered if my thinking was wrong, and you have just put the pen to paper the vaporous thoughts that I had. Thank You!
Just for a record, my guess is that the Burnes contract will provide the best value of the three, followed by Snell with Fried's being the furthest underwater at the end.
The Dodgers are in a unique position. They have so many SP kicking around that they don't need 30 starts from Snell. If they get, say, 20 high quality starts from Snell per year, they'll consider it a good outcome from them.
Interesting analysis Brian! But if you asked me about these long term deals post 30 I would have been pretty close in guessing the probabilities of success. Way too many bad deals versus the good ones. I feel Stearns’ rehabilitation model is not vanity but his strategy to build a pitching staff. I am concerned how risky this model will be - this year there are big “ifs” on every starter except for maybe Maneaa.
I think it's been a pretty common refrain that people are worried about the rotation. Without a doubt it's a concern. But I would encourage people to be concerned without anticipating the worst. Maybe Senga doesn't come close to 30 starts, or Peterson reverts back to his career ERA, or Holmes fails to make the conversion or Montas can't replicate what he did down the stretch last year. I just find it tough to believe that all of those things happen in 2025.
So what if say a guy like Burnes lived out a 6 year deal and was great for 3 and a turd for three, so much so that by year 6 he made a handful of starts and was let go of. However, in year 2, he led the rotation to the WS and won games 1 and 4, and the Mets won the WS. Burnes would not live up to the contract in dollars, yet would have seminal to a championship. Who would stand up and say the last 3 years were an overpay making the contract a bad one?
I see the ultimate goal of a player and team and FO to win a WS. You pay the players when the time is correct to splurge. Nobody thinks Soto is going to have a great last 5-7years on his deal, but if he brings a ring or 2 to Queens, itll all be worrh it. But make no mistake, the time is now.
We have success measured in dollar value and quite independently in post season success. I dont necessarily think one view is better than another. And if the Mets signed Burnes and never made the WS but pitched brilliantly Id be happy calling it worth it.
I admire your optimism to look for treasure among the trash.
And there is an example of that in our sample - Jon Lester and the 2016 Cubs. But that's it. One example doesn't move the needle very much.
But moving away from the aggregate and focusing on the 2025 Mets -- Do you think they're one great SP season from being a World Series winner? I don't.
Use th epithces as a single example like Lester, but you can look at players too like Kike Hernandez, or Edman. or plenty of others that could fit that mold.
My personal feeling is that yes, we want the best players om the best deals. Sometimes you have to eat the bad for the good. The thing about this all is that theres no way to know. I would have gladly put my money on Burnes being much more of a success than Manaea and the grab bag. Im leary of the population grouping you made that just because theres a nuch of people in a pool surely someone will succeed, but looked at individually, the likelihoods seem small.
Senga: Injured for a year. looked crappy in LCS. I see little basis to expect a lot of success
Holmes: A total experiment. Does he turn into Lugo? Does lugo even stay Lugo? Its a real gamble.
Peterson: hes a maybe to me.
Montas: Hasnt had a season wth an ERA+ > 100 in several years, but I like the workhorse.
We watched a rotation run out of gas.
Anyway, I dont think the Mets are a #1 from the WS, but it would sure be a big step. As the Dodgers get phenomenally better, I see the gap widening and so less enthusiastic about gambling on the whole rotation. I hope to eat my words.
Wow - so much to digest that leads us down the path of not giving long term contracts to pitchers over thirty. The same could be said for position players. I think that if a Burnes or Snell throws you over the top, then it is worth the risk to bring in a couple of WS titles. Seems winning brings a new influx of revenue whether that be tickets, shirt and souvenir sales, concessions, and perhaps upping advertiser rates for having more people tune in to SNY and whatever radio station is currently carrying games. There was a story about Ichiro who early on was photographed in a non-baseball shirt that when seen in Japan, created hundreds of thousands of dollars of sales from Ichiro wannabees. The same could be said for Ohtani whose jersey sales in Japan have hit the millions.
David Stearns continues to show that he knows more about putting a team together than our esteemed writing staff, but from our perspective, lacking a true ace/stopper, unless Senga can return to his rookie year, leaves the Mets too reliant on too many innings needed from the pen. That means that multiple pitchers need to step up on a frequent basis. Yes, that is why they are there but if one goes on a bad streak, it throws the rest off.
I am fully ready to admit I am wrong as soon as we see Holmes and Montas being effective starters and the rotation, while not being star studded, comprised of guys who can give us 6-7 effective innings.
I trust Stearns. And so does Cohen which is why he's paying him $10 million a year to turn the team into a perennial contender. That means signing players at the top of the free agent market when it makes sense, the superstar types, and making sure there is a constant churn of young controllable prospects coming in to augment the roster. That last part means not clogging up roster spots with long term contracts that will prevent those youngsters from getting their chance. Maybe he looks at the next few years and sees Sproat and Tong and McLean and Tidwell and Santucci and says they are going to need an opportunity. Stearns also has proven that he's flexible enough within the context of the Mets financial capacity to pivot if something isn't working. That gives him more ability to take value risks early on. I trust Stearns and can't wait for the seasons to begin.
Great research and analysis Brian. It tells the reasons that Stearns operates this way. I agree with Stearns that it is a sensible approach. He obtained Montas and Canning for short term contracts but Severino and Buehler fit the contract criteria and are better pitchers. Would Stearns pull the trigger for Flaherty in a short-term contract ? I would. The starting pitchers market has taken off. I would suggest that pitchers should be a priority in future drafts.
I'd be surprised if they got Flaherty. It would have to be a J.D. Martinez thing where they got him at a cut rate.
As for pitchers - I'd rather see them focus on getting guys who excel at Binghamton not turn into pumpkins at Syracuse. There's no point in reaching for pitchers in the draft if you can't get them to be worthwhile in AAA.
Does anyone have any theories on why pitchers seem to drop off the cliff after the 70 mile ride from Binghamton to Syracuse?
I know that whole league is a hitter's league - is it the automated balls and strikes that messes everyone up?
Is there a difference in coaching and they are being asked to change something about their delivery or approach once they get to AAA?
Or is it the simple fact that these guys are only good enough for AA ball? That may be the case for guys like Hamel and Vasil, but I thought Tidwell was better and certainly Sproat is.
I am anxious to see what Sproat, Tidwell and Tong do this year up there.
Excellent article. I've already used it to convince my friends, who think the Mets are" throwing in the towel on 2025 because we didn't sign anyone other than Soto", that not signing one of these pitchers was actually the prudent thing to do. I'm basically of the opinion that this is a comparable team to last year's, with the addition of Soto. Maybe that means squeaking into the playoffs again, but the whole goal is to get there and then chaos can ensue.
Brian is the Everyman GM, at least for those of us at Mets360. Great evidence-based work (as usual). This essentially supports what most understand. Signing MLB free agents is like going into a casino…you know the odds are against you but the temptations and motivations are often hard to overcome. The Met starting staff is not elite, and neither us their line up or bullpen. They do not have a true, on paper, ace. Their best starter is coming off a non-season. They certainly can use a stud, as could every team, but I am not shedding any tears on Stearns’ choice to avoid investing $200 million in 30+ arms. I do expect reinforcements between now and opening day, and not just end of roster role players. A stronger pen and top 5 line up can justify the approach with the starters for a team looking to challenge for a title.
I'm not worried about the lineup. The Mets finished 7th in the league in runs per game and I think this year's offense is better. As for the pitching, well, we'll just have to see. If the injured guys pitch like they did when healthy last year, the pen will be a strength. But that's a mighty big if...
Excellent piece, Brian! I had started some of this research earlier this winter and didn't get it anywhere near what you have completed. That is a ton of tremedous work you put in.
I had originally postulated that this was the case and was surprised when Snell and Fried signed their contracts earlier this off-season. I wondered if my thinking was wrong, and you have just put the pen to paper the vaporous thoughts that I had. Thank You!
Thanks for the kind words!
Just for a record, my guess is that the Burnes contract will provide the best value of the three, followed by Snell with Fried's being the furthest underwater at the end.
The Dodgers are in a unique position. They have so many SP kicking around that they don't need 30 starts from Snell. If they get, say, 20 high quality starts from Snell per year, they'll consider it a good outcome from them.
Interesting analysis Brian! But if you asked me about these long term deals post 30 I would have been pretty close in guessing the probabilities of success. Way too many bad deals versus the good ones. I feel Stearns’ rehabilitation model is not vanity but his strategy to build a pitching staff. I am concerned how risky this model will be - this year there are big “ifs” on every starter except for maybe Maneaa.
I think it's been a pretty common refrain that people are worried about the rotation. Without a doubt it's a concern. But I would encourage people to be concerned without anticipating the worst. Maybe Senga doesn't come close to 30 starts, or Peterson reverts back to his career ERA, or Holmes fails to make the conversion or Montas can't replicate what he did down the stretch last year. I just find it tough to believe that all of those things happen in 2025.
So what if say a guy like Burnes lived out a 6 year deal and was great for 3 and a turd for three, so much so that by year 6 he made a handful of starts and was let go of. However, in year 2, he led the rotation to the WS and won games 1 and 4, and the Mets won the WS. Burnes would not live up to the contract in dollars, yet would have seminal to a championship. Who would stand up and say the last 3 years were an overpay making the contract a bad one?
I see the ultimate goal of a player and team and FO to win a WS. You pay the players when the time is correct to splurge. Nobody thinks Soto is going to have a great last 5-7years on his deal, but if he brings a ring or 2 to Queens, itll all be worrh it. But make no mistake, the time is now.
We have success measured in dollar value and quite independently in post season success. I dont necessarily think one view is better than another. And if the Mets signed Burnes and never made the WS but pitched brilliantly Id be happy calling it worth it.
I admire your optimism to look for treasure among the trash.
And there is an example of that in our sample - Jon Lester and the 2016 Cubs. But that's it. One example doesn't move the needle very much.
But moving away from the aggregate and focusing on the 2025 Mets -- Do you think they're one great SP season from being a World Series winner? I don't.
Use th epithces as a single example like Lester, but you can look at players too like Kike Hernandez, or Edman. or plenty of others that could fit that mold.
My personal feeling is that yes, we want the best players om the best deals. Sometimes you have to eat the bad for the good. The thing about this all is that theres no way to know. I would have gladly put my money on Burnes being much more of a success than Manaea and the grab bag. Im leary of the population grouping you made that just because theres a nuch of people in a pool surely someone will succeed, but looked at individually, the likelihoods seem small.
Senga: Injured for a year. looked crappy in LCS. I see little basis to expect a lot of success
Holmes: A total experiment. Does he turn into Lugo? Does lugo even stay Lugo? Its a real gamble.
Peterson: hes a maybe to me.
Montas: Hasnt had a season wth an ERA+ > 100 in several years, but I like the workhorse.
We watched a rotation run out of gas.
Anyway, I dont think the Mets are a #1 from the WS, but it would sure be a big step. As the Dodgers get phenomenally better, I see the gap widening and so less enthusiastic about gambling on the whole rotation. I hope to eat my words.
Wow - so much to digest that leads us down the path of not giving long term contracts to pitchers over thirty. The same could be said for position players. I think that if a Burnes or Snell throws you over the top, then it is worth the risk to bring in a couple of WS titles. Seems winning brings a new influx of revenue whether that be tickets, shirt and souvenir sales, concessions, and perhaps upping advertiser rates for having more people tune in to SNY and whatever radio station is currently carrying games. There was a story about Ichiro who early on was photographed in a non-baseball shirt that when seen in Japan, created hundreds of thousands of dollars of sales from Ichiro wannabees. The same could be said for Ohtani whose jersey sales in Japan have hit the millions.
David Stearns continues to show that he knows more about putting a team together than our esteemed writing staff, but from our perspective, lacking a true ace/stopper, unless Senga can return to his rookie year, leaves the Mets too reliant on too many innings needed from the pen. That means that multiple pitchers need to step up on a frequent basis. Yes, that is why they are there but if one goes on a bad streak, it throws the rest off.
I am fully ready to admit I am wrong as soon as we see Holmes and Montas being effective starters and the rotation, while not being star studded, comprised of guys who can give us 6-7 effective innings.
I trust Stearns. And so does Cohen which is why he's paying him $10 million a year to turn the team into a perennial contender. That means signing players at the top of the free agent market when it makes sense, the superstar types, and making sure there is a constant churn of young controllable prospects coming in to augment the roster. That last part means not clogging up roster spots with long term contracts that will prevent those youngsters from getting their chance. Maybe he looks at the next few years and sees Sproat and Tong and McLean and Tidwell and Santucci and says they are going to need an opportunity. Stearns also has proven that he's flexible enough within the context of the Mets financial capacity to pivot if something isn't working. That gives him more ability to take value risks early on. I trust Stearns and can't wait for the seasons to begin.
Love this piece, Brian. Bill Jamesian. It’s always encouraging when the data supports speculation, when the objective and the subjective converge.
Thanks Bull!
Great research and analysis Brian. It tells the reasons that Stearns operates this way. I agree with Stearns that it is a sensible approach. He obtained Montas and Canning for short term contracts but Severino and Buehler fit the contract criteria and are better pitchers. Would Stearns pull the trigger for Flaherty in a short-term contract ? I would. The starting pitchers market has taken off. I would suggest that pitchers should be a priority in future drafts.
Thanks for the kind words.
I'd be surprised if they got Flaherty. It would have to be a J.D. Martinez thing where they got him at a cut rate.
As for pitchers - I'd rather see them focus on getting guys who excel at Binghamton not turn into pumpkins at Syracuse. There's no point in reaching for pitchers in the draft if you can't get them to be worthwhile in AAA.
Does anyone have any theories on why pitchers seem to drop off the cliff after the 70 mile ride from Binghamton to Syracuse?
I know that whole league is a hitter's league - is it the automated balls and strikes that messes everyone up?
Is there a difference in coaching and they are being asked to change something about their delivery or approach once they get to AAA?
Or is it the simple fact that these guys are only good enough for AA ball? That may be the case for guys like Hamel and Vasil, but I thought Tidwell was better and certainly Sproat is.
I am anxious to see what Sproat, Tidwell and Tong do this year up there.
Any thoughts ?
Excellent article. I've already used it to convince my friends, who think the Mets are" throwing in the towel on 2025 because we didn't sign anyone other than Soto", that not signing one of these pitchers was actually the prudent thing to do. I'm basically of the opinion that this is a comparable team to last year's, with the addition of Soto. Maybe that means squeaking into the playoffs again, but the whole goal is to get there and then chaos can ensue.
Thanks for the kind words and good luck with your friends!
P.S. I don't believe you'll be able to change Steven's mind...
Brian is the Everyman GM, at least for those of us at Mets360. Great evidence-based work (as usual). This essentially supports what most understand. Signing MLB free agents is like going into a casino…you know the odds are against you but the temptations and motivations are often hard to overcome. The Met starting staff is not elite, and neither us their line up or bullpen. They do not have a true, on paper, ace. Their best starter is coming off a non-season. They certainly can use a stud, as could every team, but I am not shedding any tears on Stearns’ choice to avoid investing $200 million in 30+ arms. I do expect reinforcements between now and opening day, and not just end of roster role players. A stronger pen and top 5 line up can justify the approach with the starters for a team looking to challenge for a title.
Agree, TJ. I’d used a lottery analogy for this situation earlier but I like your casino one much more.
I'm not worried about the lineup. The Mets finished 7th in the league in runs per game and I think this year's offense is better. As for the pitching, well, we'll just have to see. If the injured guys pitch like they did when healthy last year, the pen will be a strength. But that's a mighty big if...
And thanks for the kind words!