Juan Soto finished third in the AL MVP vote, behind teammate Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. And it’s hard to say that he should have placed above either of those two players. Yet timing is everything. Soto is a free agent now while Judge recently re-signed and Witt is several years away. And because he’ll enter next year in his age-26 season, Soto is going to get a massive contract from someone.
What makes the most sense, is that paying him more in the first five years makes it easier for him to opt out and maybe get a better contract for the last five years. But I would be shocked if these players opted out given that they don’t really need any more money. Still shocked that Blake Snell opted out of a $31 million contract thinking someone would pay him more. Garrett Cole came to his senses by realizing that no one was gonna give him the same value contract other than the Yankees. And the Yankees basically dared him to go. Anyone going longer than a 10 year deal on a 25/26 year-old player is just setting them up for disappointment at the end. It will be very interesting in three or four years if Shohei Otani starts to decline, but it seems that the Dodgers have picked up so much additional revenue from him being on their team that the dollars are starting to feel irrelevant, or at worst, not so devastating. Seems that MLB teams are no longer whining about the money they are losing because they must be making a fortune to be able to afford such huge contracts. And whoever came up with the qualifying offer dollar amount is also a bit delusional. So the Mets pay Severino 13 or $14 million and the only way they can protect themselves and get a draft pick is by giving him a six or $7 million raise. There is simply something about the economics of this game that have changed in addition to the TV contracts. All that being said, if Steve Cohen wants to pay Juan Soto to be on the Mets, and Soto takes the deal, we will all be thrilled. It’s other people‘s money and we live in a great country.
It's my opinion that much more often than not, when a player holds the option, if he has a half-decent year, he ops out. If he stinks, or is injured, he opts in.
Makes perfect sense, but he'll probably demand and get a 12-year deal for $600 MM. He'll be great through age 31/32, good til 36, and fall off a cliff at 37.
But if he takes the deal I propose, he gets $300 million in five. Can get he get a 7-year deal after that where he gets at least $350 for the next seven years? With the ways salaries are increasing, I think he can.
This was a informative article especially the chart that was enclosed. Most of the free agents are in the 31-35 age range. As the chart shows that even the elite digress . Front loading a free agent contract makes sense.
Brian, this was very educational. But, one thing that I learned is that almost all these players had more WAR in their first five years than in their “prime” years. Maybe there brakes need to be pumped on Soto? I agree with you on the front loading and wonder what Coppinger was thinking when he wrote it. He is a good player and can help any roster. I have never heard of him being any type of leader however, so what does it say when Batman is making $34MM per year and Robin is making $50+?
Serious question; How many leaders does one team need? I'd say the current Mets need a thumper in the middle of the lineup 10,000X more than they need a leader. With Lindor and Nimmo around, I just don't see a void in leadership on the team.
I cant imagine why Soto would do that and risk the better part of 400M$, even making an astounding AAV to start with. His time with prime and prime+ years fixed for huge sums regardless of injury or swings in performance? I guess if it is only a player option/opt-out. Then the Mets are on the hook anyway, just like the Dbacks with Montgomery, and now there’s nothing but bad blood.
What concerns me is that there is so much more to landing Soto than Soto himself. he’s a magnet for more top flight FAs. It makes the Mets not “also rans”. It tells the Yankees they aren’t alone in NY. It anchors line-up. It will draw a fantastical amount of merch and fan involvement. And, I suspect over the length of a contract, that will cover the financial lay-out and maybe even more. I read that Ohtani brought in 120M$ to Dodgers this season alone. I simply dont see the money as much of a thing. It takes money to make money.
I’d also ask why you think he would “play the FA game” instead of taking a guaranteed deal for 13-15 years that would guarantee more money that can imaginably be used and support 10+ future family generations?
Also wonder what the message sends - we only *really* want you when it’s great for us. To me, that doesn’t sound like you really want me.
What makes the most sense, is that paying him more in the first five years makes it easier for him to opt out and maybe get a better contract for the last five years. But I would be shocked if these players opted out given that they don’t really need any more money. Still shocked that Blake Snell opted out of a $31 million contract thinking someone would pay him more. Garrett Cole came to his senses by realizing that no one was gonna give him the same value contract other than the Yankees. And the Yankees basically dared him to go. Anyone going longer than a 10 year deal on a 25/26 year-old player is just setting them up for disappointment at the end. It will be very interesting in three or four years if Shohei Otani starts to decline, but it seems that the Dodgers have picked up so much additional revenue from him being on their team that the dollars are starting to feel irrelevant, or at worst, not so devastating. Seems that MLB teams are no longer whining about the money they are losing because they must be making a fortune to be able to afford such huge contracts. And whoever came up with the qualifying offer dollar amount is also a bit delusional. So the Mets pay Severino 13 or $14 million and the only way they can protect themselves and get a draft pick is by giving him a six or $7 million raise. There is simply something about the economics of this game that have changed in addition to the TV contracts. All that being said, if Steve Cohen wants to pay Juan Soto to be on the Mets, and Soto takes the deal, we will all be thrilled. It’s other people‘s money and we live in a great country.
It's my opinion that much more often than not, when a player holds the option, if he has a half-decent year, he ops out. If he stinks, or is injured, he opts in.
Makes perfect sense, but he'll probably demand and get a 12-year deal for $600 MM. He'll be great through age 31/32, good til 36, and fall off a cliff at 37.
I think he can get that contract.
But if he takes the deal I propose, he gets $300 million in five. Can get he get a 7-year deal after that where he gets at least $350 for the next seven years? With the ways salaries are increasing, I think he can.
This was a informative article especially the chart that was enclosed. Most of the free agents are in the 31-35 age range. As the chart shows that even the elite digress . Front loading a free agent contract makes sense.
Brian, this was very educational. But, one thing that I learned is that almost all these players had more WAR in their first five years than in their “prime” years. Maybe there brakes need to be pumped on Soto? I agree with you on the front loading and wonder what Coppinger was thinking when he wrote it. He is a good player and can help any roster. I have never heard of him being any type of leader however, so what does it say when Batman is making $34MM per year and Robin is making $50+?
Serious question; How many leaders does one team need? I'd say the current Mets need a thumper in the middle of the lineup 10,000X more than they need a leader. With Lindor and Nimmo around, I just don't see a void in leadership on the team.
I cant imagine why Soto would do that and risk the better part of 400M$, even making an astounding AAV to start with. His time with prime and prime+ years fixed for huge sums regardless of injury or swings in performance? I guess if it is only a player option/opt-out. Then the Mets are on the hook anyway, just like the Dbacks with Montgomery, and now there’s nothing but bad blood.
What concerns me is that there is so much more to landing Soto than Soto himself. he’s a magnet for more top flight FAs. It makes the Mets not “also rans”. It tells the Yankees they aren’t alone in NY. It anchors line-up. It will draw a fantastical amount of merch and fan involvement. And, I suspect over the length of a contract, that will cover the financial lay-out and maybe even more. I read that Ohtani brought in 120M$ to Dodgers this season alone. I simply dont see the money as much of a thing. It takes money to make money.
I’d also ask why you think he would “play the FA game” instead of taking a guaranteed deal for 13-15 years that would guarantee more money that can imaginably be used and support 10+ future family generations?
Also wonder what the message sends - we only *really* want you when it’s great for us. To me, that doesn’t sound like you really want me.
Yes, my proposal is the same 15-year deal that Coppinger proposed, only with the highest AAV front loaded in the deal.