Luis Severino and the debate about extending the QO and his ultimate decision

The Mets extended the Qualifying Offer (QO) to three players – Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. Since there were only 13 players in all of MLB to receive the QO, this seems like a notable thing. The players have until 4 p.m. Eastern on Nov. 19 to make their decision. Two of them will likely reject it. The third – Severino – is a different case entirely. There was a risk from the club’s point of view to offer it in the first place. And there’s a risk from the player’s point of view in not accepting it.

Before we get to Severino, let’s talk about Alonso and Manaea for a second. Alonso had dreams of a big contract but the 2024 season, where he didn’t exactly have a great year, threw a bucket of cold water on those dreams. Alonso will still end up with a nice pay day. It’s just that it’s unlikely to be quite as big as the 7/$158 million deal they reportedly offered him in the middle of 2023. He may exceed that average annual value (AAV) but it seems unlikely that he will get seven years. And it’s among the possibilities – even if not a plurality, much less a majority – that this will be the last notable contract Alonso gets.

As for Manaea, he’s going to get a contract that would have seemed unthinkable this time last year. But, as mentioned in this piece, it really wasn’t a huge stretch to imagine that adding the sweeper to his arsenal was going to make Manaea a good pitcher. Now it’s not a question if he’ll get a multi-year deal. Instead, it’s how many years and at what AAV.

Which brings us to Severino.

Why was it a risk for the Mets to offer Severino the QO? Because he didn’t perform up to that dollar amount last year and that was with dominating two teams in the league. What happens if he’s merely good against the Marlins and Nationals next year and/or has fewer than six starts against them in 2025? And there’s also the case that Severino out-performed his FIP by 30 points, even with a K/9 under 8. What are the chances that happens again?

While recognizing the risk, my opinion was that offering the QO was still the right thing for the Mets to do. Pitching is always in high demand and Severino is coming off a season with 31 starts and 182 IP, the latter ranking 15th in the majors. It’s very reasonable to assume that someone will offer Severino a multi-year deal, as he does not turn 31 until February. Getting Severino on a one-year deal if he accepts the QO is an okay outcome. Yeah, he’s not likely to be worth it form a dollar/WAR point of view. But the amount it’s an overpay is a rounding issue for Steve Cohen. Plus, the Mets need pitching. And if he declines and signs elsewhere, the Mets get an additional draft pick.

Why is it a risk for Severino to decline? He’s far from the top free agent pitcher available. Keith Law had him as the 11th starting pitcher available while Ben Clemens of FanGraphs ranked his 13th among starters. Are teams willing to forfeit a draft pick to sign him and pay somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million a year for multiple years? Severino could find himself holding the bag, not getting a contract offer to his liking and being forced to sit out until late Spring Training or even to the middle of next year. And there are many cases of pitchers not having a normal Spring Training and then having a poor season, with Jordan Montgomery and his 6.23 ERA in 25 games last year after signing on March 29 jumping immediately to mind.

Severino and his representatives have 11 days to figure out if teams will be interested, even with the QO attached. While searching for confirmation that Severino was represented by Scott Boras, a story by BVM Sports claims that Boras:

provided Luis Severino with incentives to accept a qualifying offer of $21.05 million. This offer serves dual purposes: inviting Severino back for a potentially higher salary next season and minimizing penalties for teams interested in him. Boras also mentioned the growing popularity of other free agents like Yusei Kikuchi, further complicating the market dynamics surrounding players who reject qualifying offers.

A quick search could not corroborate this idea and the story provided no attribution for Boras telling Severino this.

Severino’s not my favorite player on the team. Yet he exceeded expectations in 2024 by staying healthy for the entire year. If he comes back in 2025, perhaps he can exceed expectations once again, this time by adding to the quality of his output.