The Mets extended the Qualifying Offer (QO) to three players – Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. Since there were only 13 players in all of MLB to receive the QO, this seems like a notable thing. The players have until 4 p.m. Eastern on Nov. 19 to make their decision. Two of them will likely reject it. The third – Severino – is a different case entirely. There was a risk from the club’s point of view to offer it in the first place. And there’s a risk from the player’s point of view in not accepting it.
A good analysis on Sevy. I think I heard somewhere that Stearns said there is no bad one year contract for a quality SP. I did like the fact that he took the ball every 5 days for the entire year.
When the QOs were first announced, I was surprised they extended to Seve. After reading the analysis above, I'm hoping he accepts and returns. There is risk in every deal, but I agree with Stearns. Durabilty, a guy that is comfortable in NYC, part of the good 2024 culture, still young enough/no too much mileage on the arm, I think he can build off his comeback season. Nice sales pitch Mr. J...take it Seve.
I don't place a ton of weight on intangibles but every time they showed the players holding up that OMG sign in the dugout, it seemed Severino was in the picture. Maybe that means something. Or maybe he just likes mugging for the camera. I dunno.
Fangraphs projected 3/$39m or 13m a year. MLBTR projected 3/$51m or $17m a year. His fWAR for last year was valued at value $16.8m. The QO is $21.05 m.
Severino is a reliable mid rotation starter but his similar competition doesn't have a qualifying offer. That will be Severino's albatross. Last year, the majority of the free agent starting pitchers didn't meet the their dollar amounts that were projected in MLBTR. I would think this year will be a tough market also so Severino should take the qualifying offer.
If Severino accepts the qualifying offer then the Mets shouldn't extend his contract. They should let him pitch this year to evaluate the situation for the 2026 rotation. Flexibility is a good thing.
I'm not a Severino fan - just playing Devil's Advocate here.
If Stearns views Severino as someone worth the QO right now -- shouldn't he be interested in signing Severino to a multi-year deal? If Severino does indeed add quality to last year's quantity, he'll be much more expensive for 2026 and beyond.
I don’t necessarily think so Brian. Severino is in that weird place where he’s put up a solid season but was it a fluke? By hanging the QO a team would really be committed to him and I’m not so sure that makes sense. On the other hand it forces Severino to take the year lacing the Mets with the no 1 yr contract is a bad contract situation.
Severino is a mid rotation starter. He isn't anything special in the market.Stearns seems to want flexibility with the roster. Last year he signed most of his free agents for one year deals. Severino, at 3 years, ties up a rotation spot with an average pitcher. I don't think Stearns wants to philosophically do that. Average pitchers are plentiful each year.
If Severino would signed for under-market value then Stearns would probably consider it. I don't think Severino will take under-market value in November.
Then the question is: What's his market? Obviously, we get to see that at some point. But Stearns has at least given us a clue. And if Severino is worth $21 million - then Manaea has to be worth more than that.
I’m not the world’s biggest Severino fan but I’d be fine if he accepts the QO (which I think he will). As Bob D mentioned above, there not a whole lot of downside on a one year deal even at $20M. If this was the Wilpon days and this contract would prevent the team from doing something else, that’s one thing, and while even Cohen needs to have some spending limits, I can’t see this limiting other spending. I’m also not concerned that the perceived value of the contract exceeds his WAR from this year.
On the other hand, if he doesn’t accept, I’m not going to lose any sleep over it.
Hi Brian,
A good analysis on Sevy. I think I heard somewhere that Stearns said there is no bad one year contract for a quality SP. I did like the fact that he took the ball every 5 days for the entire year.
Thanks Bob!
They say there's no ability like availability. Still, I'd rather see Quintana back for less than half the amount that Severino would get with the QO.
When the QOs were first announced, I was surprised they extended to Seve. After reading the analysis above, I'm hoping he accepts and returns. There is risk in every deal, but I agree with Stearns. Durabilty, a guy that is comfortable in NYC, part of the good 2024 culture, still young enough/no too much mileage on the arm, I think he can build off his comeback season. Nice sales pitch Mr. J...take it Seve.
Good to see you here, T.J.
I don't place a ton of weight on intangibles but every time they showed the players holding up that OMG sign in the dugout, it seemed Severino was in the picture. Maybe that means something. Or maybe he just likes mugging for the camera. I dunno.
Fangraphs projected 3/$39m or 13m a year. MLBTR projected 3/$51m or $17m a year. His fWAR for last year was valued at value $16.8m. The QO is $21.05 m.
Severino is a reliable mid rotation starter but his similar competition doesn't have a qualifying offer. That will be Severino's albatross. Last year, the majority of the free agent starting pitchers didn't meet the their dollar amounts that were projected in MLBTR. I would think this year will be a tough market also so Severino should take the qualifying offer.
If Severino accepts the qualifying offer then the Mets shouldn't extend his contract. They should let him pitch this year to evaluate the situation for the 2026 rotation. Flexibility is a good thing.
I'm not a Severino fan - just playing Devil's Advocate here.
If Stearns views Severino as someone worth the QO right now -- shouldn't he be interested in signing Severino to a multi-year deal? If Severino does indeed add quality to last year's quantity, he'll be much more expensive for 2026 and beyond.
I don’t necessarily think so Brian. Severino is in that weird place where he’s put up a solid season but was it a fluke? By hanging the QO a team would really be committed to him and I’m not so sure that makes sense. On the other hand it forces Severino to take the year lacing the Mets with the no 1 yr contract is a bad contract situation.
I guess I wasn't clear with my response to Metsense.
If Stearns views Severino as worth a 1/$21 million deal - should he be willing to offer 2/$32 or 3/$45 or numbers in those ballparks?
Severino is a mid rotation starter. He isn't anything special in the market.Stearns seems to want flexibility with the roster. Last year he signed most of his free agents for one year deals. Severino, at 3 years, ties up a rotation spot with an average pitcher. I don't think Stearns wants to philosophically do that. Average pitchers are plentiful each year.
If Severino would signed for under-market value then Stearns would probably consider it. I don't think Severino will take under-market value in November.
Then the question is: What's his market? Obviously, we get to see that at some point. But Stearns has at least given us a clue. And if Severino is worth $21 million - then Manaea has to be worth more than that.
I’m not the world’s biggest Severino fan but I’d be fine if he accepts the QO (which I think he will). As Bob D mentioned above, there not a whole lot of downside on a one year deal even at $20M. If this was the Wilpon days and this contract would prevent the team from doing something else, that’s one thing, and while even Cohen needs to have some spending limits, I can’t see this limiting other spending. I’m also not concerned that the perceived value of the contract exceeds his WAR from this year.
On the other hand, if he doesn’t accept, I’m not going to lose any sleep over it.