Maybe the Mets lost the Soto sweepstakes

After winning 89 games and making it all the way to the league championship before falling to the dominant LA Dodgers, it seemed the Mets needed one more huge bat to throw them over the hump. Of course, they also needed a few more strong bull pen pieces, but let’s save that for another day.

Mets owner Steve Cohen, with $765 million burning a hole in his pocket, was not about to be outbid for generational talent Juan Soto. So, barring his exercising an opt out after five years, Soto will be calling Citi Field his home for the next 15 years. We should expect to watch Soto through his early MVP candidate years, his “OMG I am on the other side of 30 decline years,” and when he on the other side of say 36, with five more years left on his contract, the “are we going to eat the rest of his contract” years.

Don’t get me wrong. Who isn’t thrilled the Mets got Soto and doubt he will deliver a title? In 2024, he hit 41 HR, with 109 RBI, 128 runs, 129 walks, had a batting average of .288 and an OPS of .989. The only categories he finished lower than a Mets player were doubles (but he still hit 31) and stolen bases, where he had seven steals and was caught four times.

With Soto and Francisco Lindor, the Met have two players (like Aaron Judge and Soto) who can change a game in a heartbeat as well as improve the fates of this franchise for many years to come. Add in the rest of the expected regulars, and this is a pretty good lineup. But it’s very much like the team they had last year, save for a new CF tandem, and an improved DH combination. Also, our expectations for 2025 already include Jeff McNeil getting off to a good start, even in this odd numbered year, and the return of Francisco Alvarez’s 2023 hitting that produced 25 long balls. The NL East did send three teams to the playoffs last year, but the improvement of other NL teams makes that a hard feat to replicate.

So, before he even takes the field, is it fair to ponder whether Soto’s acquisition has this far been a plus or a minus?

It is a little concerning that this team, that won just 89 games but forged through the playoffs with some heroic late game hits, is pretty much what we had last year. Yes, Soto will be a game changer and account for additional wins, but did they really do enough to jump to the next level, or did a single three quarters of a billion dollar contract (sounds so much higher than saying $765 million) cast a shadow on what dollars were really available to spend?

Management knew the pitchers that were leaving and did a good job bringing back Sean Manaea and a few others. Their other acquisitions did not break the bank and are collectively thought of as good pieces to add to the big league club. But they need more offense, not just the promise of what Mark Vientos showed and hoping that Alvarez’s bat comes alive. But where else did they really spend to bring this team to the next level? I can’t answer that. Did Soto’s signing cause one big free agent, whether that be a hitter or pitcher, to want to play in New York, including the kid from Japan who of course joined the Dodgers? Nope.

To make matters, management also likely knew months ago, even before the season ended, the range of the offer they would make to Pete Alonso and that given the player’s agent, it would not be sufficient to result in a deal. There is no issue leaving the negotiations to the experts, but it’s kind of hard not to feel we were jerk around a bit as far as their intentions to keep the status quo at first base.

Yes, they’ve thrown around taking Vientos’ cannon of an arm and moving him over to first base where he basically has no professional experience. Is first base really that easy to play? And then we are back to our collection of not ready for prime time players vying for playing time at third. It’s great when the kids come up from the minors and step right in, but that doesn’t happen much in Queens.

Soto will likely replicate his 41 home runs that does represent a huge increase over the gaggle of other players who collectively produced about 22 home runs while playing right field. If Vientos hits 30 that would be great. But where are the 35-40 longballs coming to replace what Alonso likely would have given?

Who could the Mets have signed instead of Soto?

Let’s start with Anthony Santander (an AAV of $18.5 million for the next five years) to play right field. This switch hitter crashed 44 home runs last years for the Orioles and his eight year career averages include 34 HR, 84 RBI and an OPS of .776.

Next would be Christian Walker (an AAV of $20 million for the next three years) to play first base. Now in his tenth year, Walker hit 26 HR with 84 RBI and an OPS of .803 and is considered a better fielder than Alondo. Those two would have gone a long way to lengthening the lineup with a lot of pop in their bats.

Lastly, let’s throw in Tanner Scott (an AAV of $18 million for the next four years) to join the back of the bullpen. Yes, he’s a closer but with the fragility of Mets relievers, he’d still get his 60 plus innings and plenty of chances to close/save games.

For “just” $5.5 million more than they will be paying Soto, they could have filled three huge holes with players hitting their stride and allowed plenty of time for the kids down on the farm to work their way up.

Yes, this is all crazy conjecture but it seems reasonable that these three solid improvements might just have been a better choice than putting all of those eggs into one generational basket. Please prove me wrong Soto.

And in the meantime its back looking for late breaking news on my ESPN app to see if they could strike a deal with Alonso. Still makes the most sense to me.